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Man I’ve been thinking back to all those events that trended better in the final 72 hrs. All the good vibes and naked high 5s that were going on. Man do I miss those times.

Do you believe that the AMO is a real thing?

I was just trying to remember what made that winter fail, smh Ah that was the "cold air trapped on the other side of the globe" winter...

I hope to experience a 96, 05, or 15 again. Though 05 is probably a 1 in a 100 year type season

Yeah HRRR is kind of a furnace in the BL. I want a sloppy inch or two on a Saturday afternoon like I want a hole in the head.

Looks a lot like the 12Z EURO.

Never forget Jan 6th (2024) and an inch of rain from a juiced up southern disturbance that was just a bit too warm. Just didn’t have any good cold air.

Buyers remorse?

Hard time buying that

Will I have not seen. DM I have. Edit - It appears Will is Santa Clause, so apparently he has been seen.

Matches Euro/ NAM .

The deterministic NBM snow product does indeed weight the meso models more, but that's too far out to include them. Even the SREF wasn't in range. I looked at the forecast in question, and the amount of forecasted snow was only around 1.5", but it was largely driven by some very snowy GEFS members. Of note, the winter products in the NBM update at 01, 07, 13, and 19Z. The 19Z products will include the 12Z GFS but NOT the 12Z ECMWF (which hasn't yet arrived by the time that the NBM winter suite is run).

Definitely want it earlier.

And you have like one, mayybe two, great winters left in your lifetime.

Yes, I was noticing that. It’s already 19 here. Forecast low is 15. Thinking could be between 10-15 here

Agreed. I wanna see something more notable. I got into this hobby back 2010 because of Snowmageddon. I know that 20+ storms are extremely extremely rare but Id love to be able to track a top 10 storm soon.

Decent slug of moisture on HRRR but it’s quite mild. Almost like you want this to come in earlier vs aftn. Higher el still would flip I think.

I will say it’s downright cold. Today never got above freezing. 21 here now. 18 is projected low.

Hrrr with the thump

The Caps playing like the shit known as the GFS.

Can envision Pony tails frozen to necks .. needing surgery to remove

I don't mind all the little clippers, but I'd love to get some juiced up southern wave attack a cold dome of arctic air.

Nah, it goes deeper than that. I literally spent time in the nuthouse and do not have this issue (I have literally told exes that I was severely mentally ill, and they became MORE attracted to me) so severe mental illness doesn’t justify being unable to pull. Dude needs to learn to work with what he’s got and lean into the hot+crazy vibe like I did. There are plenty of hot and crazy women out there for him, he just needs to accept himself and play the cards he was dealt.

Something of note* Most of the forum is well under forecasted lows tonight. It continues to drop imby (17•) .