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That is exactly what I am grappling with. If you are your thinking resides firmly within the box with respect to seasonal forecasting, then you are likely to suffer a large degree of error.

I will say that @Typhoon Tipwere musing just yesterday about a theoretical "unicorn-scenario" in which the residual cool ENSO residue retards the development of said GOA low in such a manner as to allow for that. This impact would need to be more subtle than 2023 and more apparent than 2015.

I know some people will say well it will just supercharge whatever we had for a strong or super Niño. I’m not sure you can apply that linear logic.

Great stuff. I am curious as to what influence the northern Pacific will have on the Arctic domain this winter. Obviously the are backing off the vast -PDO regime we had been in, with help to the developing EL Nino but we are in unique territory regarding the state of the PDO. This is a situation where I don't think a raw numerical values tells the entire story here. Clearly we're heading towards more in the way of a +PDO structure but those absurdly warm anomalies from Japan across the north Pacific IMO still reflect which is by large a -PDO. Based on how the EL Nino has developed, combined with the state of the Pacific, my anticipation would be an significantly far north sub tropical jet this winter and once that is very juiced. Now, that is something that could bode well for us if the cards align but we'd also be talking about a raging jet and it may be very difficult to get surges of Arctic air to displace southwards. I would have to think we would need to see a -NAO/AO of historic territory to give any shot. Even if we did get a -NAO during the winter, it may not be much help and if anything could increase potential for warmth if its structured in a way where the above average heights connect with the jet and propels it even further north.

I am usually lethal with ENSO forecasting, but I will say that the unparalleled magnitude of this El Nino is really posing a challenge for me with respect to any forecast precision beyond the blanket "super-El Nino designation. I am someone who exhaustively parses data to come up with analogs to inform future intensity forecasts and it makes it difficult given that this one is in a class of one. Def. take my exact numbers with a grain of salt this year.

I am usually lethal with ENSO forecasting, but I will say that the unparalleled magnitude of this El Nino is really posing a challenge for me with respect to any forecast precision beyond the blanket "super-El Nino designation. I am someone who exhaustively parses data to come up with analogs to inform future intensity forecasts and it makes it difficult given that this one is in a class of one.

If you could tell me that the GOA low will be just west enough or perhaps not as strong as some are anticipating so that if we do get a negative NAO, there’s a little bit of a cold source in Canada, I would definitely have a change in attitude. We obviously do not need Canada to be an icebox, I think we all agree on that. But what I worry about is that we have this split flow totally void of any money in the bank in Canada and raging STJ that basically combines up with any negative NAO ridging. if I would make a call, I would have BN snowfall, but I’m not anticipating a massive skunk in terms of snowfall. Especially the interior.

Long loss of power means refrigerators and food may not be kept cold. Not every school has UPS/back up generators. It's cautionary to mitigation food borne illness.

True, that is how I feel.

Well it’s also based on previous types of ninos. I did say I’m not opposed to near normal snowfall, but I’m not optimistic on AN snow. That’s different than Kevin claiming how every winter will suck. I’m not going by emotion.

Presto: 30 Day change:

Segment from July 25th blog: Alternative Scenarios....AKA "What can Go 'Wrong' " Lagged North Atlantic Climate Response to Solar Variability There has been a primary emphasis within this writing to adequately portray the sun as the both the omnipotent and omnipresent figure that it is as it pertains to the earth's atmosphere. Indeed, from it's influence on the polar domain via the modulation of ENSO by the degree of solar irradiance emitted, it's modulation of the arctic via the transmission of geomagnetic energy via the solar wind throughout the stratosphere, it's reach around the globe is boundless. It has also been established that the atmosphere in largely governed by the oft delayed feedback between the land, sea and air that serves to budget the immense degree of solar energy that is concentrated around the equator by redistributing it upward. First in altitude via the convergence and upward ascent of air due to convection, which is a term referring to concentrated areas of showers and thunderstorms. Then eventually poleward by both major storms such as hurricanes, which are essentially spinning gyres of convection, as well as ocean currents and oscillations. This epitomizes how the cycle of ocean and air processes act to budget heat around the globe, which was touched upon in an oblique manner when referencing the interplay between the sun and the poles at work in the "bottom-up" theory. The work of Sciafe et al, 2013 is revolutionary in that it ostensibly bridges the previously discussed works concerning polar sensitivity to the solar cycle with prior research (Czaja, 2002) positing a 6 month lag between the leading of the NAO by the 500mb pattern over the Atlantic. The work posits the Atlantic also has a sensitivity to solar UV variability that triggers an immediate atmospheric signature that takes several years to accumulate in the subsurface of the ocean, during which time the atmospheric response progressively increases as part of a coupled feedback between the ocean and atmosphere. The response continuously projects onto the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and the familiar tripole pattern in North Atlantic sea surface temperature, as referenced by Cjaza et al (2002), with a lag time of 2-4 years (Sciafe et al 2013). Thus is it is reasonable to conclude from the preponderance of evidence owed to a multitude of varied research efforts that changes in solar irradiance along the progression of the solar cycle trigger instant surface responses that subsequently progress through the subsurface, and then ultimately resurface through a process of meridional overturning. This reemergence fosters a delayed feedback (6 months) between the sea and air that can be self-sustaining. Member stormchaserchuck1 at Americanwx.com weather forum has put this theory into practice. His index consists of a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). The index is a composite of 2 areas in the North Atlantic (blue box - red box). Because the northern area has more volatility, the total dataset, SSTs and NAOwere normalized by multiplying the total historical absolute number of both, and dividing it by each other. When blue box is cold SSTs, a negative NAO is implied for Winter. When red box in warm SSTs, a negative NAO Winter. For comparison, and red box is 65% value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa. Thus far, through July 15, which is about 50% of the way through the identified May 1st- September 30th period, it is estimated that the index currently signals approximately a -0.40 for DJFM NAO predictor. Since the standard deviation is .50, there is it a 50% chance of having the DJFM NAO calculate between -0.90 and +.10. The .40 mean of the polar analog composite would rival the 2012-2013 season and would be the most negative NAO season since 2009-2010. Unsurprisingly, both of these seasons occurred during the easterly phase of the QBO and coincided with the ascending portion of the solar cycle. Given the previously discussed westerly phase of the QBO that is ongoing in conjunction with the pending peak in geomagnetic energy, it is expected that this formula will normalize over the course of the next two+ months. In the event that it does not, it should be interpreted as a nod towards the increased volatility within the polar domain relative to the classic east-based seasons that has been advertised. The fact that ample evidence has been provided for increased volatility during the second half of the DJFM winter season also implies that this may represent a feasible plausibility that will need to be evaluated over between now and the onset of boreal winter

Can't believe I've missed 11 pages of this thread. So much of Ray's writings I have to catch up on. I was really hoping to have been able to divulge deeper into seasonal stuff by this winter but not the case. Hopefully I can for next winter.

DPs are modeled to drop overnight tonight, so tomorrow is comfortable for all.

yeah I don't get what all that hype and "doomsday" view on that was all about. At least IMO, a part of me believes too its part of the decline of the +AMO regime as we strive towards a -AMO regime.

I've never watched his severe coverage videos so I have no opinion on them. From what I've heard they're pretty great but I've seen a few of his YouTube videos and shorts that pop up when I'm browsing and they are not particularly good. Not sure if he is a met or not but some of what he says doesn't make sense or is inaccurate. Can't remember the exact details of some instances off the top of my head b/c they were just too cringe worthy.

Beautiful area. Enjoy!

I was adamant that it would do away... I do not expect a mean -NAO this winter.

Cant wait to leave later for Lake Placid to get away from this humidity. Looks like lower 40s for lows this weekend and I'll be over ~2400 elevation.

I think you're trying to be, but I think everyone would attest to the fact that you have some sort of underling assumption that winter will suck, which predisposes you to an inherent bias.

Yeah, it’s dumb lol. Friends kids in PA are out today too

Good week here with 1.5". Didn't look very promising looking ahead last Sunday.

I'm lumping 2023-24 into the group with 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 given the very strong Nino status (ONI 2.0 in NDJ) and some similarities to the current global pattern (-PDO. Also, given it's the closest year to our newer, warmer trending climate). Here's the temperature anomalies averaged DJF for those 4 winters: It follows a pretty typical Nino look, though I would argue the near to slightly below normal averages in the SE US, and heck even the modest above normal averages in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, are skewed by 1982-83, and especially the month of January. Jan 1983 and 2016 were both cold in the Mid-Atlantic and SE US, and like @The Iceman mentioned, we got big dogs both those years: But Jan 1998 and 2024 averaged very warm in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: And as far as February goes, most of the strong to super Nino months were warm across the northern tier and cooler in the south. Under the assumption (even if it's unlikely) that the North Pacific doesn't respond to the super Nino (I.e. we have a -PDO into the winter) then 2023-24 would have to be a close analog. Right now, I would lean towards a much warmer January, in the average, similar to 1997-98 or 2023-24. I do not think that the northern Rockies and Central Plains will average cold in January, like those years, but rather will average warm and the Southwest and Southern Plains could be cooler. I'd venture that the warmth extends well up the east coast, unlike 1983 and 2016. Precipitation anomalies are likely to be above to much above normal up the eastern seaboard, with the highest anomalies in the central Appalachians and Southeast US. However, like mentioned in the posts above, there will be a much higher than normal chance for a very big snowstorm. My fear, though, is if the source region for our cold is simply not sufficient enough *when we do get cold northerly flow* for snow down to the coast. It seems like a winter with lots of mix events NW of I-95 and rain more times than not. Should we get a well timed cold blast that's sufficient for snow, then it could be a good one. KPHL snowfall totals for these select years: 1982-83: 37.9 inches (21.3 in the Feb blizzard) 1997-98: 0.8 inches 2015-16: 27.5 inches (22.4 in the Jan blizzard) 2023-24: 11.2 inches KABE snowfall totals for these select years: 1982-83: 45.8 inches (25.2 in the Feb blizzard) 1997-98: 7.7 inches 2015-16: 36.2 inches (31.9 in the Jan blizzard) 2023-24: 25.2 inches

CFSv2 progs for relative Nino 3.4 trimonthly peak continue to cool significantly as the overall flatness of Nino 3.4 still persists (much longer than earlier progged on the models for 3.4): Mean of runs Aug 4-13: OND +3.5 (when the progged peak was at a peak) Mean of runs Aug 14-23: OND back down to +3.25 Mean of runs Aug 24-Sep 2: OND down even further to +3.1! It hasn’t been this low since the 10 day means of late June:

I imagine seasonal models will start trending warmer. Right now we are before that infamous Halloween predictability barrier. Now models (as programmed) are amping up Nino response because Nino is on fire. What's next? Warmer forecasts! ATMO has not followed teleconnections for years. First, the oceans are not absorbing heat. Marine heat waves are almost global. See Climate forum for more. Also the PDO remains out of whack. If we have warm Nino and -PDO it'll relentlessly flood the Lower 48 with mild air. My forecast remains a top 10 warm winter. Warmest winter in recorded history is possible.