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I silently follow the JMA its not as bad as some say. Got a bad rep but isn't any worse than the other JV models.

Insane for a mean on gefs

I corrected that.

I'm not home but with temps 35-36 in Enfield it can't be too exciting.

Sorry, but thats a huge pet peeve for local peeps. the only one worse is Lewis/Lewes

what a beast

Yay

GEFS slightly west of 6z

Looks like the peak probs of >1" QPF have dropped but they are moving more inland. Probably less clown 3 footers lol.

Here's the only chance I have: To come back a day earlier...but therein lies the rub...Sunday we probably have a better chance of NOT making it back.....Gotta get the timing of this thing down. There's hope...I give it 30%

Pingers all night...

yeah they don't have blizzard watches anymore so figure they'll do winter storm watches, mention possibility of blizzard conditions than upgrade to blizzard warnings saturday at 4pm update

Updated 12z Suite total QPF 2/22-2/23-24

Definitely getting gusts over 40 before this line of showers in garner. Very strong gusts outside the office you can hear them hitting the windows

Wish I could join you. It’s a terrific hike.

Positive changes early on the Ukie

12z looks to me like it would place a death band west of Juno.

Lot of big dogs showing up on CIPS analogs as you would expect on the NAM 12Z. 2013, 2015, 2022, 2018 etc.. GFS isnt out yet but the 00Z run had a lot of other big ones like 2001, 2006, 2010

yup GEFS looking a hair west...

Include the Eastern most counties of NJ all the way down to Ocean County - BUT just start with a Winter Storm Watch IMO

GFS Clocking in YET AGAIN with 12in+ SEPA wide

Oh yes I know we had them then...just talking about late February

Hey Kevin don't get fooled with that 50 degree stuff....I have seen fast accumulating snow after a high of 62 degrees...that said I am not buying in till I see a little Euro agreement....