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One of many… But this particular meso-low earlier this afternoon was quite significant.

Yep, periods of rain here with thunder and loud thunder 56f humidity 98% Looks like fairly strong thunderstorms in Delaware Bay in a line moving into south Jersey.

@WxWatcher007 all set - check your personal messages.

Still having trouble seeing their forecast.

Yeah not happening

We missed being out in all the rain in the city thankfully!

His mother was a mudah

Thunder and lightning here. Not as crazy as where @CAPE is located, but much more rain than forecasted. Still more to arrive from my SW shortly.

Increasing loud thunder and 70F here in Greenville, N.C. as storms are moving rapidly from SW to NE. I take it this is the first of the two cold fronts moving through. Possible snow showers late tomorrow night which would be crazy for this time of year.

^Ok, I've plotted Tropical OLR and found that subsurface temperature anomalies near the thermocline (associated with sea level height) are actually more impactful. You see the correlation increase to almost double and the same goes for vs 850mb wind, 250mb wind, sea-level pressure. Matching Tropical Pacific OLR though, which is "Weak La Nina-like" right now, comes out to a -NAO in Nov and Dec then switches to +NAO for Jan and Feb. Curious how he got -NAO for Jan and Feb.

Keep on a pushing...

Paul Roundy @PaulRoundy1 · 13h The algorithm is based entirely on outgoing longwave radiation data in the tropics. The OLR diagnostic algorithm is explained and assessed here: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.962 And the association with the extratropical circulation is diagnosed through the method of constructed analogs: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/141/7/mwr-d-12-00223.1.xml Since the algorithm does not include any explicit information about the ocean (it includes what is implicit in OLR anomalies), and since the OLR signal is projected forward based on how similar OLR signals moved in the past, it will do poorly when the ocean subsurface is undergoing strong changes. In the short term (e.g., next 2 months), the results are reasonable, but in this particular event, there is risk of El Niño being forced by strong subseasonal variability (February through May). Should that occur, the verification data would diverge from the forecast.

0.22" , still dzl at obs

You can see the much heavier echoes pushing to the west over the lake. https://imgur.com/a/qR2NywE

Can you elaborate on what you mean? Bust warm or bust cold? What's going on in 11-12 in the NE Pacific?

Moderate to heavy snow here now.

Since 2012 there has been a really strong correlation between Summer SLP, and negative SLP anomaly 60-90N and the following Winter having a ridge at 90N. It has worked almost every single time, almost a 0.70, or 85% correlation. Doesn't work as well before 2012, but we had that pattern strongly this year so it's no surprise so many seasonal models are popping a Winter anomaly ridge at 90N.

What's a 100-day Lowpass Constructed Analog?

That might be a hundred burger at your summit, lol.

Thick fog here

Saw a flash and heard thunder a moment later.

Radar lighting up

What an unbelievable environment, to have your team false start every single play .