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Same It has been a while

ready 2 b buried

Of course. Let's just hope we dont get above average Dec-Mar. 47 this morning for our coolest low since May

Real light rain in laurel as I inch along the BW parkway

Yes, completely buy the poleward Aleutian ridging and trough being centered to our west...this is why I said while I don't think this will be a terrible winter for most of us, I also don't expect it to be a KU cookbook, either. There are going to messy systems, both in terms of precip type and/or verying degrees of phasing failures. I do think that the EURO has things biased a bit too far to the west, though.

Had a high of 70 degrees yesterday and for the 3rd time in a row this week a low of 45 degrees again.

The seasonal models at this very early stage seem to like the idea of a very amplified Aleutians ridge. I am not looking at these long range forecasts for the exact locations of the ridge-trough axis yet. But several solutions both keep the trough axis to our west. Would match recent years where we get a Southeast Ridge or WAR influence for the Northeast. I want to see what the MJO activity and the rest of the October pattern looks like before refining the outlook more than these generalities.

Yea, I expect the cold to again be centered over the northern plains and possibly GL.

Clouds here and stuck in upper 50s thankfully.

Yeah, the impressive cold outbreak over the last few weeks has been focused to our west again. The Columbus, OH area saw their 5th coldest 2 week Aug 25 to Sep 7 period. This has been a repeating theme since the 2015-2016 super El Niño global and national temperature jump. We saw this during this past winter when the coldest anomalies went to our SW and W. Then especially in February 2021 when the record cold went down the Plains and caused all the problems for Texas. Prior to this we had the record cold stay to our west in January 2019 when new all-time records for cold were set around Rockford, IL. The last impressive cold outbreak for a few weeks centered in the Northeast was back in late December 2017 into early January 2018. The last extended cold to be centered in the Northeast was JFM 2015. Time Series Summary for Columbus Area, OH (ThreadEx) top 5 coldest Aug 25 to Sep 7 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1885-09-07 61.9 0 2 1915-09-07 64.3 0 3 1891-09-07 64.6 0 4 1896-09-07 64.7 0 5 2025-09-07 64.8 0 - 1988-09-07 64.8 0 - 1967-09-07 64.8 0

The persistent radiational Dewling has been an important crutch for the dryness. Not a replacement but definitely mitigating the effect of drought conditions on the landscapes here.

I looked for a bit the other day and was unsuccessful in trying to find a list of what sensors have been replaced. I’m interested in KMGJ right up the road. I found data on when the old equipment was installed, and it was old, but the file that was supposed to be an updated list of the replacement dates was blank. If you come across anything g please share, thanks.

The mean DM PNA value for the 4 seasons mentioned in raindance's post above is +.15, which affirms my suspicion of a variable PNA that averages near neutral this season. I don't see that huge negative values in the mean, and I think that notion that it has to be because it's a second year La Nina is every bit as dibious as that fallacy that all triple dip La Ninas have to be cold. Anticipate deeply negative PNA in the mean during the coming winter season at your own peril IMHO.

Well, Halloween is reasonable I would say.

I still remember my kids first time at the beach. Very special. Have fun!

Don't do it. I always tell my family, "heat is a Thanksgiving treat".

While that does look like a season that certainly won't be prohibitvely warm in the mean, that doesn't exactly scream KU snowstorms to me, either....still looks like more of an overrunning and SWFE pardigm to me. I think the window for any big fish will be later in the season.

37.4° this morning. Eyeing the heat setting on the thermostat ominously.

Impressive temp and dewpoint spread across Maryland this morning. Bittinger is 40/39, while Berlin is 69/67.

The Delaware Water Gap area is a beautiful part of NJ. It’s too bad we don’t have a continuous record there going back as long as some of the other Sussex County observing sites. The Sussex airport has continuous records in August online going back to 2001. This August featured the lowest monthly reading of 43°. The old COOP which was nearby stoped posting data a few years ago. So it looks like it may have closed. Both the COOP and airport were operational back in August 2006. The airport had a low of 45° and the COOP 46°. Prior to the airport readings going online back around 2001, the coldest August reading at the Sussex COOP was 34° back in 1965. So if Walpack was 7° colder than the Sussex COOP back in 1965, then it could have fallen to around 27° in that much colder valley area than around the Sussex COOP and airport. Parts of NY and PA were also in the upper 20s during August 1965. That was the worst drought around the region in hundreds of years. Monthly Data for August 1965 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWTON COOP 34 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 34 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 35 HIGH POINT PARK COOP 35 BOONTON 1 SE COOP 36 LAYTON 2 COOP 36 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 37 PEMBERTON COOP 37 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 37 LONG VALLEY COOP 37 MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 37 TOMS RIVER COOP 38 CHATSWORTH COOP 39 ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 39 WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 39 BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST COOP 40 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 40 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 40 LAMBERTVILLE COOP 40 NEW MONMOUTH COOP 40 CANOE BROOK COOP 40 BELVIDERE COOP 40 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 40 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 40 SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 41 Monthly Data for August 1965 for New York Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. ELIZABETHTOWN COOP 26 SPECULATOR COOP 27 ANGELICA COOP 27 SLIDE MOUNTAIN COOP 28 FRANKLINVILLE COOP 28 ONEONTA 3 SE COOP 29 ROXBURY COOP 29 Monthly Data for August 1965 for Pennsylvania Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. COUDERSPORT 4 NW COOP 27 AUSTINBURG 2 W COOP 28 KANE 1NNE COOP 30 LAWRENCEVILLE 2 S COOP 30 FRANCIS E WALTER DAM COOP 31 ENGLISH CENTER COOP 31 MILANVILLE COOP 31 EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 32 KARTHAUS (RIVER) COOP 32 EMPORIUM 1 N COOP 32 CLERMONT 8 SW COOP 32 BRADFORD 4SW RES 5 COOP 32 TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 32

40.7° Coolest so far

Saptleton Airport was decommissioned, demolished, and replaced by Denver Center Park. The environment is quite different from what it was when record-keeping ended in 1995 at Stapleton Airport. The environment for the new ASOS isn't comparable to what it was at Stapleton Airport. The warming summers since 1995 isn't an artifact of Denver International Airport. It is a statewide phenomenon. 12/15 (80%) of Colorado's summers with a mean temperature of 67.0° or above and all nine of its hottest summers have occurred since 2000. Five of the last six summers (2023 being the exception) have had a mean temperature of 67.0° or above. Statewide maximum temperatures have risen somewhat faster than statewide mean temperatures.

Low of 56. Leaving for a little beach trip tomorrow morning. It will be the kids first time at the beach.

Pretty cool around here. I’m enjoying the start of the school year weatherwise. Makes it much easier.