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Hello from NE FL. ! 70 and a light breeze as I sit on the porch and watch the surf. First of a few trips planned over the next couple of months. I lived here for 13 years so can pretty much leave it lol. Enjoy the torch!

Well gotta say. This line of rain & storms is slow moving & dumping.

That link you posted Holston was December 96 and January 97. It's 95 and 96 we were looking for.

You & I are close in age.

from cosgrove: see what I mean about all of that "Phase 8" nonsense that was the talk of the internet?). Remind yourself that for an MJO cold influence in North America, the lead impulse should be between Phases 6 and 1, be very strong, and have at least some connection to the polar westerlies. I always thought phases 3-6 correlated for warmth in our area

My WAG is ENSO neutral winters in general don't feature a predictable influence on the Pac side so the pattern is less predictable than in a Nina or Nino, and other factors tend to dictate the general pattern. I'm guessing if there isnt a favorable AO/NAO, winters tend to be milder overall and more variable wrt to snowfall, and there is increased chances of little to no snow. I think I recall PSU saying Enso Neutral brings an increased chance of a persistent SER.

I didn't think we had to deal with an AR that Winter. Blocking was a big thing that Winter though.

A true big dog should have at least a small 16”+ jackpot, and 12”+ in a good chunk of backyards. Many times the jackpot will be dismissed if it isn’t over Chicago or Detroit though.

Beautiful day today. High of 52.3 on my station.

There’s just not enough cold air out west so the storm is crashing into the West Coast are mainly just rain. And until that ridge over the central US abates, snow, and cold will be absent for the entire country with the exception of the northeast that will remain chilly, but still no snow. Hopefully this pattern can shake up after the new year, but it looks like this pattern might stick around for a bit.

Insert the "Big Bill Hell's" ad here

it would need to be a drastic drastic change

I was saying in 2023 they had a banner year out there because of the -PNA while we torched. I was saying that because If the -PNA persists this year, we might have a 2023 repeat

Haha. I was teaching 3rd grad that year. We ran out of snow days in Knox Co...like ran waaaay out of snow days.

Yeah something is definitely up with how he's pulling the data or processing it.

I remember this storm. I was in 3rd grade. About 6-8" in Brentwood but the wind was howling which led to snow drifts up to my waistline in places!

For a second I thought we were looking at a tropical system somewhere

That was one of the most severe winter events for the entire Tennessee Valley, ever. Huge ice storm, snow close to the blizzard of 93 levels, and cold close to 1985 levels.

Nice 50 mile ride from the house today, trails were actually pretty decent, another 6 inches and they would have been perfect, oh well, I'd be surprised we had any snow Saturday morning, the bullseye is right over our heads ..

95 mph max.

Wtf is Maue doing with that product? Pivotal has the actual model derived 10m gusts and it’s nothing close to that at that time.

All I care about is whatever happens between tomorrow’s cutter and 11:59:59pm on 12/25. After that, I’ll look at the longer range.

Probs not far off

From what I’ve been seeing, the upcoming pattern post Christmas looks to be one of the most effed up convoluted patterns I can recall. We have a southeast ridge from Hell that looks to be established by the storm pattern shifting to our north. I’m also seeing storms that come out of the southwest with an injection of energy out westerlies coming around the south side of the se ridge. Wtf… good luck figuring out any consistent storm pattern. i still see a shot at a white Christmas with that storm popping up on the 23-25th. C/NNE have a shot at some wintry precip later this weekend.