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6z GFS gone wild here

Ceres has updated through September. Net radiation continues to increase off the enso bottom and the 12-month average is getting close to peak levels in La Ninas before 2020.

Just reading the words makes me happy. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Tuesday A 40 percent chance of snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Tuesday Night A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Have had 3 inches of snow here past two days, not a big storm but looks like long-lasting snow cover with colder temperatures developing. Around 28 F now as the snow pulls away to southeast.

Driving to cumberland farms this morning and realized they pre treated roads.. they must have been on the board

Upping my 7.5 Downers Grove prediction to 9 just for Baum who is right down the road. We got this Baum, 9 and a decent possibility of overachieving. Just have to watch the euro, its not giving up on the more northerly route of the low and Euro AI has the low a tick farther north than the Euro OP.

Winter Storm Warnings in southern Wisconsin. Once it gets light, better go check on the snow blower, which makes a nice change from the last couple of years.

Winter Storm Warning up for LOT, MKX, ILX.

Half a flake.

WB 0Z ensembles for early next week:

*fewer

Not much has changed from my thoughts locally over the past 24 hours. Hoping we hold steady, even as that dry slot influenced “custom screw zone” (cyclone, 2025) gets way too close for comfort. For a final call would expand the upper range and go 3-7”. Aside from total failure, I don’t see going below 3”. But imo would take a lot of things going right to get to 7”. Moving chips up a bit to 5.7”

Told ya the EURO was full of $hit. Looks just like some of the other guidance with a classic rt 128 deal.

Heavy snow and freezing fog at KSLK. First time seeing the SN+ ob at that station.

Very much so. Really want to see how it can handle synoptic events and long range patterns. Good early season test with next week.

Ironically, the GFS ensembles agree more closely at 500 than the Euro in general, and not with it's OP which is a massive WC trough/EC ridge.

It would be hard to be more different than the GFS is vs the Euro in the long range. The GFS is full torch, the Euro is full freezer.

Looking good. Curious to see how the lake will affect snow ratios in lakeside areas with the slightly onshore SSE flow, but thinking 1:10 average is reasonable. Final call 7.5” Lake Forest, I’ll be stationed here for duration of the storm. They got around 6” from the LES event a few weeks back so that would be over a foot total for Nov — quite impressive.

Euro is a N&W event similar to map above.

For the first storm of the season, coming out of a bad 2024-2025, all the signs seem to be good for IA, S WI, and N IL.

00z Euro... This is about as locked into 8+" as my area ever gets.

Something that should probably be used for this event in a lot of areas is snow depth to see a more realistic depiction of what you may measure on ground. Kuchera and 10:1 maps aren't accounting for the compaction and melting from this very wet snow that will likely occur and are probably overinflated. Yes 8-10in may fall but may not reflect on ground after melting and compaction.

That high running off Maine just as it starts is no good for 12/2. Further west by 350 miles is needed