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Its ridiculous. Its also ridiculous that every single post that so much as mentions seasonal variability, weather patterns, it will snow etc, needs to be prefaced with the repetitious "we know it will be a mild winter overall" or the the favorite "an unfavorable pattern most of the time". That shouldn't be necessary to repeat every single time. Ive said it before and ill say it again. It isnt snow weenies- who long ago set their expectations for a subpar winter '26-27- that will be disappointed come spring. Its the trolls, few but very vocal, who actually believe in the snowless warm winter that would defy all logic which they are touting. They go far too warm/snowless every winter regardless of the signs, so a super nino is all that was needed to release the insanity.

Euro apparently had a true SSW in today’s run. Would be unprecedented so early in the year

There have been many severe thunderstorm warnings, flash flood warnings, and tornado warnings in the Southwest. This is about the most tornado warnings I've ever seen for this area. Today, I am hearing reports on the news of water rescues in NM and CO. I haven't seen any tornado reports on the SPC web site.

got stick season in the swamps here.

Pftt…already tickling 40F now..

I mean...is there any evidence fo suggest that low doesn't park there like that? Guessing that's how 97-98 failed

Yeah it was a little breezy locally. I was out with the chickens for over an hour and the cold was cutting through the hoodie. Nothing too brutal…but we’re starting to combine wind with the chill at this point in the season. I do see a lot of calm METARs out there now.

Temperatures will continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Monday could be the warmest day with highs in the middle and perhaps upper 60s. Dry conditions are likely through at least the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -13.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.226 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.0° (1.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

48.3/29 Smells like a 34-35 type low

Going to be beautiful.

Currently 45° and getting ready to go play ball at 830.

Brisk like with wind? Dead calm here and radiating already at 37F.

Yeah the 55 degree days today felt way colder than a few weeks ago 55 defree

I probably respect your thoughts, ideas and opinions on winter weather patterns more than just about anyone on the entire forum. Please consider coming back in here and sharing that. But leave this for the dedicated thread.

That post was about ENSO.

This is absolutely fair...all I ask.

Kinda brisk out there 44.6/28

Another amazing day, I felt warm even tho it was 16C/62F for a high. WUN removed the rain although I doubt I'll get through the rest of Oct without.

Has this NINO not actually peaked?To much going against it right now to get stronger.Some strange PDO along right now along with the MJO into the IO which should have some effect by the Bjerknes effect.While these might spawn sorta speaking Kelvin waves,more than likely would seem to be upwelling not down.It would seemingly cause more mixing not strenghting.Impressive NINO regardless

My dad took me there the first time back in 1985. I have only been there 3 other times and last year was the most recent. I have only skied to the base of the gondola once and that was when it went to the top. Skied Jugernaut which is no longer with us. A good place to stay for a few days if you want different terrain, but I only went last year because someone was kind enough to give us a couple of passes for me and my boy. I will say the relatively new K1 lodge is pretty good.

2007 (with Dean and Felix) probably holds the record for the 2 biggest storms making up the highest percentage of a season's ACE.