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* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern McDowell County in western North Carolina... Madison County in western North Carolina... Mitchell County in western North Carolina... Southwestern Avery County in western North Carolina... Northeastern Haywood County in western North Carolina... Northern Buncombe County in western North Carolina... Yancey County in western North Carolina... Northwestern Burke County in western North Carolina... * Until 130 PM EDT. * At 1242 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Erwin to 13 miles southeast of Greeneville to 3 miles west of Newport, moving south at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

Severe Thunderstorm warning for several areas.

Rock-steady

ORD had a low temp of 76° yesterday, which broke the record high min temp for the date of 74°(1971/1960).

Chicago/O'Hare had a low temperature of 76° on September 4th, which broke the record high minimum temperature for the date of 74°(1971/1960).

Maxed at 93° at both ORD and MDW yesterday. ...2026 90°+ Day Tally... 17 - MDW 16 - ORD 16 - RFD 15 - ARR 14 - PWK 14 - LOT 13 - UGN 12 - DPA

Hello again DMV! Yet another day of rain for ya! Welcome to the Record El Nino of 2026-27!

Just under 0.50 of rain here last month...nothing this month. What is with all these storms hammering greensboro then falling apart as they approach wake co? It has happend numerous times this summer. It's strange.

It’s basically just leaning into a stronger signal for a canonical Nino pattern because the Nino itself is progged to be much stronger than 23-24.

Nasty day. Coc!

H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US! ‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m ‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)

large MCS/MCC overnight. This particular radar image looks like a smiley face. This place just keeps getting wet

H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US! ‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m ‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)

Euro blew chunks with the 23/24 forecast thru the fall of 2023. Interestingly, Cfs2 forecast starting mid 9/23 was warm and not canonical Niño. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202309/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

First shower of the day is falling in the Valley. I'm getting some early leaf fall as well with black cherry and poplar trees around the house.

Some wet wx across the SE sub, and NW sub. Other than that, a pretty decent holiday weekend for most.

As depicted its a bit warmer, but it wasn't cold on last month's edition either. I think we have a pretty good idea of how this winter will go. Need a -AO and or EPO to bring some colder air close enough to work with for a time.

what does this have to do with el nino

Overcast morning again. Clouds are suppose to clear this aftrn. If so, the temps should bump into the 70's briefly.

Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US ’23: ‘26:

If I knew we were actually going to only be +1C for DJF, I'd be pretty bullish for snow. Perhaps even more so if you can wag that December makes up most of that + anomaly and JF are near normal or even a touch below. But that's all weenie-casting right now.

.25" rain from 10:30 - 11:40 The Graf model from 5 am was exactly right with 100% rainfall while NWS was only 30%. At less than 12 hrs. it seems that Graf is more accurate than NWS.