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Not that it matters at this point, but the monthly temp forecast isn't that bad for the NE. It's pretty rudimentary, but you get the jist of it that the 3 month averages of +1-2C is likely closer to +1 than +2. Precip for the 3 months is within the average range for many on the east coast as well during DJF, while JFM is average for everyone.

We'll be in Scandinavia - you guys can roast all you want.

The last few GEFS and EPS runs have forecasted MJO in the relatively favorable phases of 2, 1, and 8 through Sept. 19 and this would probably extend for at least the rest of Sept per longer term model guidance and climo:

As far as I can tell just these so far: BGR, CAR, FVE, HUL, and MLT.

How’s the NNE rollout? We’ve been wiping the floor with SNE on temps on a daily basis

Came on quick here, milky skies onset pretty fast.

Not true, nyc would have gotten 20" even without the march storm. Only slightly below avg.

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Tons of dry air out there right now. Even the NHC is making notes about it now how it will inhibit any development for the next few days. Unless that dry air lifts up, or otherwise gets out of the way, this will be a whole lot of nothing.

Some models show an African wave and a cag around mid to late month

Exactly this. We already are seeing events that are clearly tied to climate change. It might be even more useful to look at major ecological events than individual weather events - things like coral bleaching events, mass kelp forest dieoffs, and the recent unprecedented sargassum blooms in the Atlantic. (All due at least in part to rising SST’s in the world’s oceans). These are signs of shifting baselines that majorly effect which organisms and ecosystems thrive in a given place. And to be honest, I don’t have much patience for those who can see stuff like that happening and not make the connection to rapid climate change.

Thanks, Don. As I assume you realize, crop sizes have overall so far actually been aided rather than hurt by increased CO2: -GW has lead to longer average growing seasons thus increasing avg crop sizes. -Related to this, the increase in avg growing season lengths has allowed crops to be grown further north than in the past. -There’s now increased CO2 for plants to thrive better (the “CO2 fertilization effect”). -At least partially related to this improved environment, the Midwest has had a decrease in the frequency of widespread droughts since the 1990s. Thus, I suspect that one of the reasons that CC isn’t being treated as a major crisis by as many as you’d want is that it has actually lead to more favorable rather than less favorable conditions for food supply, one of the biggest essentials to support animal life. That’s a huge benefit for life on our planet. So CC, though very bad for rising sea level, increased frequency and severity of major flooding events, increased frequency of severe TCs, increased coral bleaching, and an increase in extreme heat related casualties, hasn’t been all bad news by any means. To minimize the major benefit to food supply as well as a decline in extreme cold related casualties would not be considering the full effect of CC.

Just looking at maps and seeing remnants of the southwestern storm moisture over n/c AZ where it's only in the mid-60s. Then I looked over at Colorado and there's one station reporting 21/15 ... is that for real or is it a Celsius conversion that's not supposed to be on the map? The station is ABH -- is that on top of a mountain or what's going on there? (data on mesoscale maps on SPC site as of past hour 19z)

The issue isn't so much whether climate change is creating such events. The issue is how much more frequent, intense, or worse climate change is making such events. There is a growing body of attribution studies that discuss the linkage. My point is that much larger and more frequent events than what have occurred or are likely to occur in the near-term to drive a fundamental shift in thinking. Even, let's say a $500 billion hurricane or a colossal heatwave that claims ten times the lives of the 2003 European heatwave by themselves won't really change the realities of human psychology that anchor human societal inertia.

Yes, they haven't updated the spreadsheet since July 1, so I suspect they've swapped out most by this point. Just wondering if there's been any cool bias? I would argue, yes, but I'm wondering if anyone else has noticed this. It looks like the stations that were running on legacy sensors did much better for heat early on this summer versus the stations that had swapped in the new sensors. I wonder if we are going to have to temper our expectations for heat. Might be difficult to beat some of these 90s-2020s records if the sensors were reading hot. We've grown accustomed to breaking 100-150 year old records left and right. May not be the case moving forward. It look decades of climate warming before the ASOS HO-1088 hygrothermometer was regularly beating out the extremely warm biased HO-83. Even to this day, many summer records still date to that short era from about 1986-1995 (summer has substantially less natural variability, so biases have an outsized impact on the rankings). Might be a similar story for these new Vaisala sensors.

This is as good as you're going to get at this time of year. Watch us have 100-degree heat at this time next year.

FWIW, the last 2 -IODs that were as strong as this year torched in November-February. The only difference is that (outside of Baltimore and DC), we got the blizzard in mid-March 2017, otherwise 16-17 would have been a snow shutout like 22-23. The big difference this time around is that we had a cool August (2016 and 2022 had record warm Augusts).

lol, I'm not risking the well. the "lawn" at this point can continue to hibernate

I don't believe it's happened yet. Last I heard there was an issue at one of the test sites that caused them to pause the replacement plan, but that was like 9-10 months ago back when we weren't trying to cut NOAA's already meager funding in half. EDIT: Looks like they have begun to roll some out to southern region stations. EDIT2: On second look, it looks like they are done with half of the stations. Around here: BDL, HFD, IJD, ACK, BED, BOS, BVY, FIT, HYA, MVY, ORH, TAN, PVD, UUU, WST, and PYM.

There are outliers to every subset but Nina’s in general are colder and drier than other enso states lately. That produces less variance across our region due to meso scale climate factors (elevation, slight changes in latitude). So in general that equates to better for places further SE in our region and worse for places NW wrt “normal”

any consideration to the nada model ?

Yeah, the issue is that failed harvests, catastrophic floods, other major disasters, etc, have all happened many times before and it's really impossible (and intellectually dishonest) to pin any single event directly to climate change. Now, if some regions started seeing repeated, mass casualty level heat waves, or as you said rising oceans began causing large scale flooding in major cities, then I think that would grab enough political attention to take serious action.

stream of smoke heading this way on satellite.

Starting to be like the snowstorm models

They dropped Erin a couple of times early in detection, too. just sayn'