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If El Niño is strong, which I do think it will be, it should, in theory, give the Atlantic a break this year. That doesn't mean we still won't see a few hurricanes or perhaps even a few landfalls. The old saying, it only takes one, see Andrew in '92, a strong Niño year, etc.; however, I would expect overall activity to be below normal for seasonal numbers. Too much shear and unfavorability across the basin should curb CV long-trackers. Obviously, if ENSO doesn't swing too positive or the Niño is weaker, then anything is on the table. As of now, based on current trends, I do expect below normal overall activity in 2026 for the Atlantic basin.

Thanks for continuing to keep this on the radar. Truly astonishing to consider the extent to which warm and snowless records have been smashed lately in much of the West, with more to come in light of the upcoming heatwave. Huge margins. This is clearly the most notable weather statistic for the 2025-26 winter season. Even if you only care about your own backyard, the capacity of the now existing state of he Earth to exceed previous records ought to alarm you, as it is only a matter before it happens where you are too. Unbelievably (based on recorded history) warm and generally now bereft of snow out here in Colorado.

Yeah I was looking at Iron Mountain. They are gonna get whacked. Historic blizzard

2.5” of snow here so far in Blaine. Solid 0.5” per hour rate since 6:00 pm. Heaviest band has set up just north of the dry slot on the south side of the metro. We’ll see if that band makes it up to me much the rest of the night. .

The 00z NAM is legit

I do think cams particularly hrrr are underdone with snow. 1-2in I think is a good bet here. Hrrr barely had half inch.

Tucked neighbors in the valley in the pines sandy soil

If we're getting one more semi decent clipper in a few days then covering the grass with this one first would be cool. Ik I was talking big game about 12" or leave it but I hadn't fully processed that we could have one more mini winter period if we just get enough to stack at least Especially with the cold that comes part and parcel might as well play pretend one more time before next year

Not saying the GFS is right by any means, but CAMs are terrible with snow, imo.

Places like Iron Mt Michigan with 3.75 to 4 qpf all snow winds to 60mph .4ft within the windows of potential. Pretty epic

0z gfs drastically different than cams for areas further south

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Milwaukee just posted warnings/advisories. I assume LOT will put us under an advisory tomorrow.

Ive actually compiled data on SDDs ever since you told me what they were. Solid for DTW....DJF sdds were 297.

I wish there was a really good lighted live webcam there. I need a snow watching fix SO BAD and the Sierras are already in mid Spring. Damn damn damn!

A mini jackpot for cyclone. Hopefully it works out for there, after a shockingly snow-free period since 12/8 (and after last season’s record low snowfall for MLI).

Feel like we get an annual 8-10” where some place in the area goes over a foot (just not MSP airport proper) but I also think it’s hard to actually get enough moisture this far up north to go over a foot area-wide without a lake nearby. Instead we get a decent amount of the prairie/plains climate getting a few inches here or there and holding onto them while it’s below zero every night for 2 weeks.

Possibly…but I guess my point is that it hasn’t really ever been consistently good, other than the glory days in the late 1970s and 1980s. Of course 2013-14 was good, but that’s only one season.

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0Z GFS has another SE shift with the track of the surface low through N IL

It's only going to get worse.

Of course you’re just the messenger, but there are so many ways to respond to this pathetic reality. I guess I’ll go with the simplest stat - total 2025-26 SDDs for ORD during DJF was 107 (60 of which were from the first 10 days of December), which means a mean daily snow depth of only 1.2”…and only a 0.6” mean depth for the last 80 days of met winter. And that’s supposedly our best winter season in several years. On top of that, ORD actually had one of the better snow totals in N IL, as areas N and W had materially lower snowfall. Plus, no white Christmas for anyone. And I didn’t shovel once after the early December storm. How does that happen? Are we supposed to be grateful for this? No - all it represents is an abominable commentary on our climo.

Back many years ago I was cat fishing the Marietta bend below chickies rock when a suspected meteoriite made impact somewhere in lancaster. Whatever tonight was was also many magnitudes, brighter and louder then that.

I don’t have the data to support but I’m pretty sure our upper echelon storms start to cluster around 12-13”. Anything over that is pretty good for us. .

Some pretty jaw dropping wording from the headlines of the latest AFD from NWS Marquette. This thing is going to be a truly remarkable (and dangerous) storm for even the winter-hardened folks of the UP.