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Stops at Vernon

ok guys and gals let's do this ,,,,,,,6 pm Start time for first flakes or do you people think sooner ?

2F. Bummer on mondays rn but I've learned not to get too attached to the pack anymore Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Just couldn’t include TOL in there ?

23 degrees this morning. Very red sky that lasted less than 5 minutes. All these forecasts are interesting. Obviously it’s easy to tell who the anti snow forecasters are. CTP still trying to save face from the earlier call. So many varied calls.

6z NAM bufkit for BDL. When I see -30 into the DGZ I get all tingly

That will be fluff

upton going 5-9 here-all will depend on banding...

Correct. I’m still pretty nooby about these things still so I’ll still defer to the more experienced folks to fill in.

Looks like maybe we CJ. Hope Emasswx hits that hard.

Early on but looks like the 12z HRRR won't disappoint

17 degrees.

It may seem a bit quiet in here, and thus mean overnight runs were not good. Nope, they were good, especially regarding cold. The 6z GFS produced a run with the January 2 cold front, and the 6z Euro was headed that way. Does it get as cold as the 0z GEM which has been leading the way in finding cold fronts? Probably not - I hope not. But the GEM (let's see how 12z looks at lunch) may be on its way to scoring another coup. It identified the Dec 29-30th front first as well. That may mean we have a useful instrument going forward in identifying cold fronts - just add some degrees back. The 0z Euro looked really good at 500.

Looking out to the longer range, the full first week of January looks to be active with chances for Wintry weather. Current modeling shows storm systems actually approaching from the south & west instead of the current northern stream dominated pattern from the last few weeks. I think we may be busy tracking on here just after New Year’s. Here’s an example from the overnight Euro & GFS of the early January potential.

Look at the STLR for my neck of the woods! Snow to liquid ratios will be at or above the climo normals in the 13-17:1 range from south to north across the forecast area. The precipitation efficiency will be the best in the southern most zones based on the latest hi resolution and short range guidance, as the best dendritic growth zone will be higher across the northern zones. All said, a widespread moderate to locally heavy snow event is expected over the forecast area. .

There’s gonna be some strong bands in this because of how strong the fronto is….esp in western areas. It starts to weaken pretty fast once it crosses central areas but there’s still enough to produce decent snows. But further west it could pound at 2” per hour for a time. I think most of SNE will reach advisory snows…the question is how far northeast can the warning snows reach. I feel like right now it’s prob like a PSF-WST line…but inching that another 25 miles or so makes a big difference in affecting a lot more people (you start to include ORH and some of the towns east of there.)

Ok so maybe a dumb question here from somebody not quite as versed as others…but if the S/W energy is hanging back and consolidating the hast 12 hrs…wouldn’t that be a small sign that the system is not weakening/attenuating, but rather showing signs of the opposite? Or am I completely not understanding .

They increased it for most if not all of the immediate metro areas

Glad DT brings us back to reality.

More from CTP An impactful winter system is expected to impact central Pennsylvania on Boxing Day (Friday) with a wintry mix in play for the entire forecast area as a shortwave trough and low pressure associated with this feature currently stationed over the Midwest approach the region. Ahead of this system, departing high pressure has allowed for some clearing with a shallow cold air wedge beginning for form on the eastern periphery of the Appalachians, setting up a cold air damming (CAD) set up ahead of the precipitation. Given this signal, have trended temperatures throughout the entire near-term below NBM guidance given that there will be impact on precipitation types as temperatures generally range in the mid-to-upper 20s across the area as precipitation begins across the region. Recent model soundings continue to outline an elevated warm nose across western Pennsylvania, which continues to outline this area for the highest freezing rain potential with this system in the areas where an Ice Storm Warning remains in effect. The bulk of model guidance continues to outline freezing rain continuing throughout much of the event across the Laurels and portions of northwestern Pennsylvania, with the best timing for significant icing coming between 18Z-00Z (1pm-7pm EST) with some sleet beginning to mix in during this timeframe. Minimal changes to the forecast in this area of the CWA with this forecast cycle, thus the Ice Storm Warning remains in good shape moving forward. Further east, there recent HREF model guidance continues to outline the central third of the forecast area for sleet potential at onset with areas north/east of I-80/US-15 likely experiencing a brief window of snow before transitioning to sleet after 18Z (1pm EST). Sleet/snow accumulations generally range between below an inch for the southwestern two-thirds of the forecast area with recent NBM/HREF model guidance bringing a slight increase in snowfall totals across the eastern periphery of the forecast area, where 1-2" of storm-total snowfall is expected. Winter Weather Advisory remains unchanged this cycle; however, quicker movement of the system could promote the bulk of precipitation tapering off across the forecast area shortly after midnight Friday night.

NWS increased my totals overnight from 4-8 to 5-9

CTP is on their game this morning. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Precipitation enters west-central Pennsylvania slightly after sunrise, with a mix of freezing rain and sleet being the predominant precipitation type at onset. - Wintry mix expands across all of central Pennsylvania during the morning hours, continuing through the evening hours. - Prolonged threat for freezing rain on Friday brings the highest ice accumulation across western Pennsylvania, where an Ice Storm Warning is in effect. - Sleet/snow accumulations across the rest of central Pennsylvania will bring slick conditions for those traveling on Friday, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.

At this point I'd be afraid to go over 5" for NYC Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Nice to point out that s/w energy Brian. I’ve seen that hanging back and consolidating over the last 12-24hrs.

Hopefully more snow than ice. Snow/sleet is very disruptive compared to just snow and it's a huge pain to clean up. Hopefully timing is after rush hour