Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 5m 5 minutes ago Interior Northeast snow looking more likely 11/1-2. 6z GFS-27km day 5-8 total snow. http://models.americanwx.com #snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Right now looks like a late-phaser too me. If I had to pick a Northeast spot for any appreciable wintry precip it would be NNE. And even that is up in the air. Could be nothing more than a glorified frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Interesting Ens,spread continues to be further SW with the ULL, very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Just for kicks here is the 6z GFS snowfall totals in a different more zoomed graphic. @JimCantore: For Halloween & weekend many areas in the northeast should experience their first snow of the season. This includes the coast & big cities! A little to early to be spreading that kind of news to the general public don't ya think? He's talking like were getting this snowstorm like '11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Well it depends how you define "first snow"...if it means "first flakes", then there's a good chance that many will see flakes out of it. But accumulating snow is still a long shot for areas outside of the interior NY State/NE region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Crazy Uncle is well crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 One of the features this system has going for it is an amplifying ridge out in the western plains/Rockies...helped by the deep trough off the west coast. You'd much rather have a ridge amplifying than de-amplifying or static if you are rooting for a deeper solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 If this goes south and blows up, it will draw in an area of warmer air in the 950-850 area. There is a very narrow area to work with. This isn't like December and beyond were we cheer for something further south to get in on the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I may be a minority on this board, but I hardly look at models for winter weather (at least IMBY), until around Thanksgiving time. I'm still hoping for 60's for a few more weeks to save on utilities, lol. That being said, maybe we can all squeeze a few flakes out of this, but I don't think any of it is 'very interesting'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 If this goes south and blows up, it will draw in an area of warmer air in the 950-850 area. There is a very narrow area to work with. This isn't like December and beyond were we cheer for something further south to get in on the CCB. We'll want a really deep 5H low just SE of us in this one...get a solid inverted trough to get the best snow potential...because yeah, the preceding airmass isn't cold enough in this one to get a typical coastal snowstorm. Basically like what the 00z Euro showed except a bit further SE. Coast would probably have trouble in any scenario this early....but a powerful ULL just to the SE would prob be the best shot for them. (kind of like Oct 29, 2005) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Here is the 00Z Euro in case anyone was interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 We'll want a really deep 5H low just SE of us in this one...get a solid inverted trough to get the best snow potential...because yeah, the preceding airmass isn't cold enough in this one to get a typical coastal snowstorm. Basically like what the 00z Euro showed except a bit further SE. Coast would probably have trouble in any scenario this early....but a powerful ULL just to the SE would prob be the best shot for them. (kind of like Oct 29, 2005) For flakes or minor acc the euro would work for sure. I'm just referring to those that want this to dig south and blow up like some of the GEFS members. Event the euro at 925mb floods maine with milder atlantic air. Something like the euro op only 100 miles S would work I think...but it's going to pull back warmer air before we get things to crash. Not much room for error for those that want something bigger. However the euro and GFS both put down some minor accumulation thanks to some mid level deformation. Vort max on the 6z GFS gets quite intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 A good step in the right direction anyways, but you can see how you may want to be on the west side of this thing if indeed it tries to take on inv characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I'd like for it to close off a bit earlier and not have a narrow area of heavier QPF before it gets kicked ENE out to sea. It tried to do that, but then accelerated ENE. Part of the game you have to play when you have an intense vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 A good step in the right direction anyways, but you can see how you may want to be on the west side of this thing if indeed it tries to take on inv characteristics. If anything the GFS was too far south this run...digs and closes the thing off south of 40N when it passes our longitude. But it shows the type of evolution we want...if it does that same thing a bit further north, then it would probably be even better for many. But I feel kind of silly talking about an inverted trough at 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 It was close, But the whole system gets tugged NE away from the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 If anything the GFS was too far south this run...digs and closes the thing off south of 40N when it passes our longitude. But it shows the type of evolution we want...if it does that same thing a bit further north, then it would probably be even better for many. But I feel kind of silly talking about an inverted trough at 5 days out. LOL, well the evolution is interesting. I followed up about this being a little too far south and then kicked east, but like you said..it shows the type of evolution. When I was saying a narrow window, it gets really narrow with these inv early season troughs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Nothing like a 200 mile shift south in a days worth of runs..................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Nothing like a 200 mile shift south in a days worth of runs..................... Or in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Or in one run. 6z was south and a weak POS OTS, H5 was tracking over me here yesterday on most guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Granted the GFS tends to be a bit too warm in these early season setups, but you can see the fuel for this feature with that tug of warmer air right into and just north of the 850 low. The strongest lift is at this feature and then spreads out or deforms across NY state and western NE where there is more of a mid level front. So if this were to be the actual type of scenario, you want to be more on the west side of it, if it cannot form a mature CCB. If we did get a mature CCB then all bets are off, but just speaking of this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Glad to see that we are attempting to take back November as a winter month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Good illustartion. Tickle the front on the west siiide....game set match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 Damaging snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Most of the trees down this way are still 85-90% leafed. Some of the late changers are still completey green. No doubt that a few inches of paste would bring down a lot of branches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 GEFS are definitely way ENE. Better for downeast Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 GEFS are definitely way ENE. Better for downeast Maine. Extremely late phase on the mean which is certainly possible. However, not sure if you looked at the 06z GEFS mean or not, the 12z mean is slightly closer to the coast than 06z. 06z mean valid 00z Saturday 12z mean valid 00z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Yeah I've seen both. I mean at this stage, really almost anything is possible. It's just another one of those "in the realm of possibilities" solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Serious wind issues would seem possible under a number of scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 gfs was pretty good with the last storm but now its all over the place...its almost as if you throw snow on the map, it starts to struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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