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The 2013-2014 Winter Outlook Thread


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#141
jburns

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:lmao: DT can be decent, he just goes to the extreme with everything like JB. Then she gets pissed off when someone disagrees with him. 

 

 

You're still having trouble with the gender thing, aren't you.



#142
eyewall

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Why not? But yeah we can take it to the bank now!! Watch Southern Pines have the biggest snowfall in 20 years.

 

Actually I can't say that for real as I was in Southern Pines for their largest known snowfall in Jan 2000.



#143
nchighcountrywx

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More details on the Farmers Almanac Winter Forecast:
 

http://m.cbsnews.com...&videofeed=null

 

Text of Article:

 

"Farmers' Almanac" predicts a "bitterly cold" winter
August 25, 2013

LEWISTON, MaineThe Farmers' Almanac is using words like "piercing cold," "bitterly cold" and "biting cold" to describe the upcoming winter. And if its predictions are right, the first outdoor Super Bowl in years will be a messy "Storm Bowl."

The 197-year-old publication that hits newsstands Monday predicts a winter storm will hit the Northeast around the time the Super Bowl is played at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands in New Jersey. It also predicts a colder-than-normal winter for two-thirds of the country and heavy snowfall in the Midwest, Great Lakes and New England.

"We're using a very strong four-letter word to describe this winter, which is C-O-L-D. It's going to be very cold," said Sandi Duncan, managing editor.

Based on planetary positions, sunspots and lunar cycles, the almanac's secret formula is largely unchanged since founder David Young published the first almanac in 1818.

Modern scientists don't put much stock in sunspots or tidal action, but the almanac says its forecasts used by readers to plan weddings and plant gardens are correct about 80 percent of the time.

Last year, the forecast called for cold weather for the eastern and central U.S. with milder temperatures west of the Great Lakes. It started just the opposite but ended up that way.

Caleb Weatherbee, the publication's elusive prognosticator, said he was off by only a couple of days on two of the season's biggest storms: a February blizzard that paralyzed the Northeast with 3 feet of snow in some places and a sloppy storm the day before spring's arrival that buried parts of New England.

Readers who put stock in the almanac's forecasts may do well to stock up on long johns, especially if they're lucky enough to get tickets to the Super Bowl on Feb. 2. The first Super Bowl held outdoors in a cold-weather environment could be both super cold and super messy, with a big storm due Feb. 1 to 3, the almanac says.

Said Duncan: "It really looks like the Super Bowl may be the Storm Bowl."

The Maine-based Farmers' Almanac, not to be confused with the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer's Almanac, which will be published next month, features a mix of corny jokes, gardening tips, nostalgia and home remedies, like feeding carrots to dogs to help with bad breath and using mashed bananas to soothe dry, cracked skin in the winter.

Also in this year's edition, editor Peter Geiger is leading a campaign to get people to ditch the penny, like Canada is doing.

Past campaigns have focused on moving Thanksgiving to harvest time in October, reconsidering "The Star-Spangled Banner" as the national anthem and changing the color of money. This time, Geiger thinks he has a winner.

He wants people to donate pennies to charity and then lobby Congress to stop making them.

"They don't get used very much. They get tossed. The only real use of a penny is if you save tens of thousands of them, then you can use them to help someone," he said.

------------------

 

And another article:

 

http://www.breitbart...ery-Cold-Winter

 

Let's just lock this solution in right now with no changes !   Would not that be nice!



#144
FLweather

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Actually I can't say that for real as I was in Southern Pines for their largest known snowfall in Jan 2000.

 

Duh... NC. See its been so long just a distant memory. This Jan will be 14 years. Hard to believe. But for me though Jan 2000 wasn't the biggest. The heaviest deform band setup up 30-45 miles east of here.

 

But I hope you enjoy your time in VT. I hope you see so much snow that you say its time to head back south.



#145
dsaur

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 I have been asked by Tony and several others whether or not I've found a correlation between the wet we've been having and the following winter. Fwiw, I just looked at the wettest Jan-Aug at KATL since 1879: 1912, 1920, and 1975 (2013 is right among these).

 

- Temp.'s averaged near normal overall. 1913 had a mild Jan. while 1976 had a cold Jan.

- S/IP averaged solidly below average with these amounts: T, 0.6", 0.6". Avg. is ~2".

- Rainfall: two of the three had a dry Feb  and wet Mar while one had a wet Feb and dry Mar

 

 That's about all I have on this.

  That's a good one Marietta :)  And you can't predict one spot in Ga. based on what the others are doing, even if they are close.  I wouldn't call this a particularly wet spell based on what happen in my yard, but most of the rest of you would disagree.

  Larry, I'd take near normal for temps after the last two years, but I'd like to see it through the winter instead of just a colder single month, to get the average.  I think it'll be colder than normal.  I think the worm turned in March and we'll continue the cycle for a while, and I don't see why more normal precip won't be the deal too.  A pretty good fall off from what the rest of you have been having would still be normal for winter :)

  The local news said Atlanta was averaging 85 daily as opposed to the usual 90.  That's a pretty good departure.  Maybe we ought to be looking at negative departure in summer compared to following winters temps.  I think we'll have at least one good cold spell, in the 850's anyway, in Sept, but lots of Nov. snow?  I'm not holding my breath, lol.  Tony



#146
metalicwx366

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Worst winter forecasts ever above. They just say it's going to be bitterly cold and not provide any scientific reason. Planetary positions, sunspots and lunar cycles??

#147
FLweather

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You're still having trouble with the gender thing, aren't you.

 

 

Worst winter forecasts ever above. They just say it's going to be bitterly cold and not provide any scientific reason. Planetary positions, sunspots and lunar cycles??

 

 

Well, we had a guy on here a couple of years ago that said his grand dad used to sniff squirrel whiz to see what the weather was going to do :)  Personally I'd rather measure the brown rings on woolly caterpillars.  I wonder if the Farmers uses one of these methods along with other secret rituals.  T

 

Sometimes folklures turn out to be true. Its hard to say which is true... which is not. But I dont know what it means... this year I'm seeing lesser acorns, hardly no stink bugs. But a boat load of spiders and millipeds. Past few years its been boat loads of acorns and stinkbugs. Anybody know mountain folk that can translate this mountain dialect into a winter forecast?



#148
mackerel_sky

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Sometimes folklures turn out to be true. Its hard to say which is true... which is not. But I dont know what it means... this year I'm seeing lesser acorns, hardly no stink bugs. But a boat load of spiders and millipeds. Past few years its been boat loads of acorns and stinkbugs. Anybody know mountain folk that can translate this mountain dialect into a winter forecast?

. I may not be a mountain man , but I have noticed the lack of acorns. I thought that would be the opposite with all the rainfall,but maybe it was too much rain and cut down on pollinization or something? There are a lot of folklore sayings involving animals an nature, like if hornets build their nests high off the ground, there will be lots of deep snow, etc. I have seen a lot of birds feeding on the viburnum bush berries in my back yard. Every year about this time, hope springs eternal for the best winter ever, then by January , it's " the 18z GFS , just gave us .20 of precip , all frozen" , then it's nothing or flurries , but all we have is hope until its over :)

#149
griteater

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Today's ENSO update from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology:

 

"The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained neutral since mid-2012. While most indicators have clearly remained neutral over recent months, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has at times approached La Niña levels. It has now returned to neutral values.

 

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest the tropical Pacific will remain ENSO-neutral for the rest of the year. Only one of the seven models surveyed suggests a brief period of La Niña-like cooling of the tropical Pacific." 



#150
tarheelwx

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A great move in the right direction!

TW



#151
metalicwx366

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A great move in the right direction!
TW

What is?

#152
mackerel_sky

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ENSO neutralish , the rest of the year, into winter

#153
mackerel_sky

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Saw my first wooly worm of the year Imby! It had a few brown rings near head, pretty sizeable black section, and a small brown section near tail. I think the big section of black means a cold , snowy winter! I'll have to wait and see the persimmon crop before I can make a better winter outlook ! :)

#154
metalicwx366

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Wrong ^^. Brown rings near the head, means cold start to winter, black section is warm and dry, and small brown section near the end is brutal cold. Basically a repeat of last winter with the very cold November, warm January, February, and December, and frigid March.

#155
mackerel_sky

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It might be right for mby! Is it ever cold and snowy in honey boo boo land???

#156
jburns

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Wrong ^^. Brown rings near the head, means cold start to winter, black section is warm and dry, and small brown section near the end is brutal cold. Basically a repeat of last winter with the very cold November, warm January, February, and December, and frigid March.

 

You are the first dyslexic wooly worm reader I've ever encountered.

 

Wooly worm reading instructions.

http://www.weather.c...winter-20121020



#157
metalicwx366

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You are the first dyslexic wooly worm reader I've ever encountered.

Wooly worm reading instructions.
http://www.weather.c...winter-20121020

I wasn't being serious buddy. Anyhow, that worm failed last year, looks like the opposite of that occurred.

#158
jburns

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I wasn't being serious buddy. Anyhow, that worm failed last year, looks like the opposite of that occurred.

Hmm.  I'm pretty astute when it comes to humor. I didn't pick up on any in your reply to mackerel.



#159
Wow

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Nearly every square mile of ocean in the NH is above normal right now, but I do like seeing the warm pool in the GOA holding on.  This time last year and in '11 it was solidly below normal.  But the entire N Pac basin is above normal right now.. so unusual how warm the ocean is yet the Enso is neutral neg right now.

 

anomnight.8.26.2013.gif



#160
magpiemaniac

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Saw my first wooly worm of the year Imby! It had a few brown rings near head, pretty sizeable black section, and a small brown section near tail. I think the big section of black means a cold , snowy winter! I'll have to wait and see the persimmon crop before I can make a better winter outlook ! :)

 

I found a wooly worm in my son's school this morning.  It was all black from end to end.  Prepare for massive blizzards in central NC this coming winter.

 

:D



#161
metalicwx366

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Hmm. I'm pretty astute when it comes to humor. I didn't pick up on any in your reply to mackerel.

Congratulations, you must be proud.

#162
buckeyefan1

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Nearly every square mile of ocean in the NH is above normal right now, but I do like seeing the warm pool in the GOA holding on.  This time last year and in '11 it was solidly below normal.  But the entire N Pac basin is above normal right now.. so unusual how warm the ocean is yet the Enso is neutral neg right now.

 

 

I'll take my chances with a neutral enso this winter   ^_^

 

I found a wooly worm in my son's school this morning.  It was all black from end to end.  Prepare for massive blizzards in central NC this coming winter.

 

:D

:wub: 



#163
tarheelwx

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I think JB threw out some winter ideas on WB premium yesterday. Did anyone read it?
Tw



#164
griteater

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http://www.komonews....-220941801.html

 

"The area near Eureka -- a Canadian research outpost in Nunavut at 80 degrees North (See map) -- has seen a nearly unprecedented start to winter this month (August).


According to UW research meteorologist Mark Albright, there is already 7 inches of snow on the ground and the temperature Friday night dropped to 9 degrees -- its lowest August temperature reading ever and as far as I can tell, the third lowest August temperature reading ever recorded around sea level in North America. (The research post "Alert" at 82N has recorded late August temps of 5F and 8F on Aug. 31 and 30 according to their record lows). Certainly Eureka's 9F was the coldest August 24th temperature recorded in North America.

 

While we might picture the polar regions as a barren place where it snows 365 days a year amid sub-zero temperatures -- in the summertime that's not really the case. The average high temperature in August in Eureka is 41 and its average low is 33 -- don't forget the sun is up non-stop in August (until the 30th, its first sunset)."



#165
frazdaddy

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I found a wooly worm in my son's school this morning.  It was all black from end to end.  Prepare for massive blizzards in central NC this coming winter.
 
:D

 
There... Mr.Burns. I told you I had a hunch this winter was going to the the best ever and now we have scietific proof

#166
jburns

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There... Mr.Burns. I told you I had a hunch this winter was going to the the best ever and now we have scietific proof


EUREKA!!!!

#167
FLweather

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So whats the saying about seeing both kinds of wooly worms?

 

I've seen some solid black this year and the last couple of days I've seen some crossing the road that are brownish-orange(solid). A brownish color would indicate mild weather right?!

 

Looks like Mr Wooly may be conflicted about this winter. Maybe not bitter cold but snowier then the past few winters. :whistle:



#168
metalicwx366

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How about we use real science instead of bugs? :lmao:
Obviously the black wooly worms have a gene for black and brown one has a general for brown color, and the others have the two colors codominate to each other.

#169
mackerel_sky

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How about we use real science instead of bugs? :lmao:
Obviously the black wooly worms have a gene for black and brown one has a general for brown color, and the others have the two colors codominate to each other.

. How did real science work out last winter?

#170
jburns

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. How did real science work out last winter?

 

It worked out fine for Waycross.  They were within 0.1" of their average snowfall.



#171
FLweather

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How about we use real science instead of bugs? :lmao:
Obviously the black wooly worms have a gene for black and brown one has a general for brown color, and the others have the two colors codominate to each other.

 

Laugh if you please. Use what you want. Nature is the best indicator IMO. Not no machine that is ran 2 or 4 times a day. Mother nature is going to do what it will damn well please and there are signs to see if you look for them.

. How did real science work out last winter?

Exactly!!  ;) If not last winter what about years past. According to some of the models.... the gates of hell should have been frozen over on Earth a very long time ago.

 

It worked out fine for Waycross.  They were within 0.1" of their average snowfall.

 

:lol:



#172
mackerel_sky

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Another sign I have seen us squirrels eating green pine cones down to the core! A lot of them everywhere! I thought they could get seeds from the brown open cones? If they are so desperate to fill up on the tight green cones, we better stock up on rock salt and snow shovels!!

#173
metalicwx366

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. How did real science work out last winter?

Great, just forecast the opposite of what the CFSv2 shows.

#174
metalicwx366

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Another sign I have seen us squirrels eating green pine cones down to the core! A lot of them everywhere!!

Oh my god. I heard someone mention this earlier today. They said a cold winter is on the way. Weird.

#175
FLweather

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Another sign I have seen us squirrels eating green pine cones down to the core! A lot of them everywhere! I thought they could get seeds from the brown open cones? If they are so desperate to fill up on the tight green cones, we better stock up on rock salt and snow shovels!!

 

I've noticed the samething with the squirrels but not with pine cones. Acorns..... lots of half eaten acorns.

 

Even these little trees... less than 3ft tall are already bare. Not dead none what so ever and other trees working its way up with the medium size trees. Over the last month there has been some good coloration with the trees considering how wet its been.





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