Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

[ORH_wxman]

Will, what's the difference between how Alan computes the EPO and ESRL...

http://raleighwx.ame...ensindices.html

http://www.esrl.noaa.../images/epo.png

Do you have any idea?

I agree with your post... seeing the Bering Strait ridge and troughing/low in the GOA is pretty solid for us.

I think the key for us over the next month is keeping the PNA either neutral or somewhat positive in order to prevent the SE Ridge from flexing too much. The -PNA pattern just isn't cutting it.

I don't know what Raleighwx does, we'd have to ask him. I just know that from past horrific experiences that we really want to avoid the vortex over western AK/Bering Straight. I alreayd posted yesterday the '98-'99 and '99-'00 torch winters....but here is another past horrific experience....the first half of '06-'07

[CT Rain]

I don't know what Raleighwx does, we'd have to ask him. I just know that from past horrific experiences that we really want to avoid the vortex over western AK/Bering Straight. I alreayd posted yesterday the '98-'99 and '99-'00 torch winters....but here is another past horrific experience....the first half of '06-'07

And without a -NAO then you're in even worse trouble.

[CT Rain]

I don't know what Raleighwx does, we'd have to ask him. I just know that from past horrific experiences that we really want to avoid the vortex over western AK/Bering Straight. I alreayd posted yesterday the '98-'99 and '99-'00 torch winters....but here is another past horrific experience....the first half of '06-'07

LOL I can't get over how ugly that map is. Awful! The +EPO is so atrocious it's stretching up to the North Pole to truly let all of NOAM rot.

[CoastalWx]

There isn't even a question about that pattern. Ugly, and there is probably a physical reason for the lower heights in the Davis Strait too.

[ORH_wxman]

LOL I can't get over how ugly that map is. Awful! The +EPO is so atrocious it's stretching up to the North Pole to truly let all of NOAM rot.

Well that period I showed did average near +10, lol. Doesnt get much worse than that pattern.

[CoastalWx]

Classic.

[CoastalWx]

Well, before we get caught up with that pattern, let focus on 12/5. Hopefully we can get a sprawling high from the cold dumped into nw Canada. As of now, I think we'll only be able to get a piece of it because the low progged to develop next week will keep the majority of it off into western Canada, but the cold would probably be sufficient. The models may also not be handling the shallow and dense nature of it too. It's possible the full brunt of it may wait until that low passes. That seems to be what the weeklies do. In any case, that's if a low forms or is offshore enough and not cutting inland.

[CT Rain]

Well, before we get caught up with that pattern, let focus on 12/5. Hopefully we can get a sprawling high from the cold dumped into nw Canada. As of now, I think we'll only be able to get a piece of it because the low progged to develop next week will keep the majority of it off into western Canada, but the cold would probably be sufficient. The models may also not be handling the shallow and dense nature of it too. It's possible the full brunt of it may wait until that low passes. That seems to be what the weeklies do. In any case, that's if a low forms or is offshore enough and not cutting inland.

I'm off that weekend. Would love to enjoy a snowstorm at home!!

[Organizing Low]

I don't like highly anomalous set ups. We had too many of them last year and I ended up with a very warm and well below average snowfall winter. It bothers me to seem them showing up on the models...a lot lately it seems. Can we have a straight forward 6-12 inch early December snowstorm please?

i made this post a while back too.

i dont like it when things get too extreme. its defintely not good for me, and based on last season, it wasnt too good for many of you guys either. you are not 40S.....we can rely on normal climo with only minor tweaking to deliver excellent seasons

now i am hearing about massive NAO's and retrograding storms. i know what that means. hopefully its an error, most likely it is of course at this range.

[moneypitmike]

but that's verbatim.

i think ryan is saying this thing could still trend further SE and give advisory snows to berks/ and greens

I tend to only listen to the bright side of things. Ryan's a genius.

33.2/19

[dryslot]

I don't know what Raleighwx does, we'd have to ask him. I just know that from past horrific experiences that we really want to avoid the vortex over western AK/Bering Straight. I alreayd posted yesterday the '98-'99 and '99-'00 torch winters....but here is another past horrific experience....the first half of '06-'07

Wow is that ugly, Hope we don't see a pattern like that this winter................

[CT Rain]

Wow is that ugly, Hope we don't see a pattern like that this winter................

We probably will at some point lol. Hopefully it doesn't last long

[MaineJayhawk]

I tend to only listen to the bright side of things. Ryan's a genius.

33.2/19

[dryslot]

i made this post a while back too.

i dont like it when things get too extreme. its defintely not good for me, and based on last season, it wasnt too good for many of you guys either. you are not 40S.....we can rely on normal climo to deliver excellent season.

now i am hearing about massive NAO's and retrograding storms. i know what that means. hopefully its an error, most likely it is of course at this range.

Yeah it means a redux of Jan 2010.............

[dryslot]

We probably will at some point lol. Hopefully it doesn't last long

Yeah like a day.............

[Damage In Tolland]

That 4th week is starting to look pretty crappy on the weeklies. The low heights are retrograding into the uglier part of the EPO region and the NAO is turning to crap too...hopefully its wrong, lol.

JB all over this disaster

[Organizing Low]

Yeah it means a redux of Jan 2010.............

yeah well its model mayhem, so im not going to pin my hat on anything just yet.

speaking of which losing the EPO and the NAO?

yikes, lets hope that dont happen.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm off that weekend. Would love to enjoy a snowstorm at home!!

Then why aren't you coming to ORH next Sat?

[moneypitmike]

Well looks like Wiz's severe outbreak is slowly trending colder..and could even end as wet snow in the hills...and then the fun really begins.

We are going to have ALOT of snow talk to discuss for the GTG next weekend

Mother-in-law coming to visit for four days, FT (HUGE)L.

So, looks like I can escape to the GTG. FT (HUGE) W.

[dryslot]

JB all over this disaster

He's an idiot.........

[MaineJayhawk]

JB all over this disaster

Just like he was with the 1989-esque cold snap for us.

[CoastalWx]

Well the weeklies have been all over the place at week 4, so don't fret. That said, these patterns do break down eventually, but I wish it would be after Christmas. I'm sick of 55F weather and rain on Christmas.

[dryslot]

yeah well its model mayhem, so im not going to pin my hat on anything just yet.

speaking of which losing the EPO and the NAO?

yikes, lets hope that dont happen.

Neither am i but watch out if it verifys............

[HoarfrostHubb]

Well the weeklies have been all over the place at week 4, so don't fret. That said, these patterns do break down eventually, but I wish it would be after Christmas. I'm sick of 55F weather and rain on Christmas.

In your neck of the woods that happens all too often. What year was it with the insane cold Christmas? 1980?

Anyway, 4 weeks is a long time. Much could change

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah it means a redux of Jan 2010.............

Highly anomalous setups do not mean bad solutions...you guys have got to get last winter out of your head. Feb 1969 was a highly anomalous setup and A chunk of eastern NE got 5 feet in 3 weeks. Dec 1992 was a highly anomalous setup with a blocked flow...that turned out well for many in the interior. Highly anomalous setups can be quite beneficial and deliver good storms. Last year we managed to get close misses in excruciating fashion, but that will happen once in every 3 blue moons, they come in all shapes and sizes.

[CoastalWx]

In your neck of the woods that happens all too often. What year was it with the insane cold Christmas? 1980?

Anyway, 4 weeks is a long time. Much could change

Well even you weren't spared from the grinch storms, we've had that for the last 3 years.

Yeah 12/25/80 was frigid.

[Logan11]

Yes 1980 was certainly the coldest Christmas in my lifetime. Arctic front passed Xmas Eve (maybe 8 PM) accompanied by 3 inches of snow @ 32F. Then down to -18F by 7 AM Christmas morning and only recovered to -1F. And that was in the HV below ALB.

In your neck of the woods that happens all too often. What year was it with the insane cold Christmas? 1980?

Anyway, 4 weeks is a long time. Much could change

[Hazey]

Yeah it means a redux of Jan 2010.............

Oh gawd don't remind me. That was dreadful and I mean dreadful. Sitting at 34F day and night for a week straight will make even the most battle hardened weather enthusiast, bring the the chair and rope over to the rafters.

Retrograding lows only seem to work out when there is plenty of fresh arctic air around. We seem to forget how much maritime air gets wrapped around these things. Obviously there are exceptions but it's not something I'd wanna roll the dice on. Stalls seem to do the trick better as long as they move along at some point.

[CoastalWx]

Oh gawd don't remind me. That was dreadful and I mean dreadful. Sitting at 34F day and night for a week straight will make even the most battle hardened weather enthusiast, bring the the chair and rope over to the rafters.

Retrograding lows only seem to work out when there is plenty of fresh arctic air around. We seem to forget how much maritime air gets wrapped around these things. Obviously there are exceptions but it's not something I'd wanna roll the dice on. Stalls seem to do the trick better as long as they move along at some point.

Feel free to post some obs in the sne threads. It will be neat to see some obs and pics when you get whacked with a storm.

[ORH_wxman]

Well even you weren't spared from the grinch storms, we've had that for the last 3 years.

Yeah 12/25/80 was frigid.

At least the Grinch Storm held off until Dec 27 last year. I'd rather have it then than anywhere between 12/22 and 12/25. Hopefully we avoid it all together this year.