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Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

This is just about as bad as it gets wtf

STRONG BLOCKING CONTINUES OVER GREENLAND...BUT ESSENTIALLY A

NEGATIVE PNA PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT RIDGE SE USA AND SW ATLC. IT

WOULD APPEAR THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD DRY PERIODS INTERSPERSED

WITH ANOTHER RAIN EVENT WITH BRIEF WARMTH TOWARD MID WEEK.

Heavy, heavy thunder on Wednesday.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

What the hell happened last night? Anyways, it snowed in the Pacific NW during 2007 and 2008 while also snowing here, so it can happen. The trough out west just has been extremely anomalous which is helping with these cutters so early in the season.

Maybe we should just take it easy with posting constantly about what every model run does. People are getting their panties in a wad and that was never the intention of the thread.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

What the hell happened last night? Anyways, it snowed in the Pacific NW during 2007 and 2008 while also snowing here, so it can happen. The trough out west just has been extremely anomalous which is helping with these cutters so early in the season.

Maybe we should just take it easy with posting constantly about what every model run does. People are getting their panties in a wad and that was never the intention of the thread.

Still status quo on SWFE and rain on cp?

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

What the hell happened last night? Anyways, it snowed in the Pacific NW during 2007 and 2008 while also snowing here, so it can happen. The trough out west just has been extremely anomalous which is helping with these cutters so early in the season.

Maybe we should just take it easy with posting constantly about what every model run does. People are getting their panties in a wad and that was never the intention of the thread.

well the pattern ....even with the Wpac on roids seems like it is working out for interior central maine. (for snow that is)

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

You just gotta give it a chance. Maybe it never works out...who knows, but I just cannot believe the incessant negativity that is occurring in November.

Everyone is just anxious :lol:

It's sort of like the opening few weeks in baseball, if your team doesn't get off to a hot start and some players are off to a huge struggle everyone is quick to start panicking.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Hey Nate, I'm truly sorry if that offended you. It was intended to be light hearted. I have said several times I think you're a bright kid. I enjoy your posts and the time you put into them. If you want to say we're not getting a flake of snow all Winter and SNE's climate will now be that of South Carolina have at it. It won't change my personal opinion of you other than I'll think you're a stark raving lunatic. If people here truly had an issue with you you'd have been run out on a rail immediately, we've had a few of those. To the contrary, I think most would agree with me that you add to the wealth of knowledge displayed here and have been welcomed into the fold. Just choose your words a little more carefully. Try not to start posts with "Will, you must realize that....." just sounds a little too arrogant. I haven't followed other remarks that have been made about you closely but if they're coming from the regular SNE posters I doubt they were meant to hurt you. Jocular humor dude. I've gotten my fair share of ribbing about my hair or where I live etc. NBD, it's fun and funny to return fire. Good luck with all your assertions and if you bust be prepared for a withering assault of "what happened to your ....." type posts. It'll all be good natured. Ok, feel better? Need a hug? BTW don't go into construction. ( That last little bit was joking around)

Nate--you might also try posting in SOLID CAPS WITH LOTS OF EXCLAMATION POINTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:)

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Well, certainly some tasty solutions in the ensembles over the next 16 days or so. I think we're starting to see some signs of the block having a little more of an influence in the sensible wx as we head into December. While the 12/5 storm could go to waste, I certainly don't have as negative of a feeling as I did with today's storm, or the one coming up for next week.

******DISCLAIMER: THIS IS IN NO WAY A FORECAST FOR HEAVY SNOW.******

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Well, certainly some tasty solutions in the ensembles over the next 16 days or so. I think we're starting to see some signs of the block having a little more of an influence in the sensible wx as we head into December. While the 12/5 storm could go to waste, I certainly don't have as negative of a feeling as I did with today's storm, or the one coming up for next week.

******DISCLAIMER: THIS IS IN NO WAY A FORECAST FOR HEAVY SNOW.******

LOL, la la la lock it up, grow some cayones.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

OP GFS plus its ensembles hinting at possibilities Dec 4-5....Euro was also on board with a possibility in that time frame.

The OP GFS is actually a good weenie solution for NYC...it redevelops an OH Valley runner very quickly into a Miller B and moves it due east jackpotting them. :lol:

…meanwhile, the 00z GFS lie came in the form of a 3 day 30-50” wind whipped biggest blizzard in the history of terror from the skies…

I’m not buying any GFS solution beyond about 10 minutes out in time until further notice, or such time that one iota of winter appeal finally verifies… This model, despite touting better numbers since the upgrade last June – IMO - is quite objectively a very poor performer with expectations for this pattern change. It’s been banging this cold drum for a month or longer. We should have tallied at least 20 days in a row of -10 departures by now given those original depictions back when, but every week its hand is forced and the bluff is called.

The thing is the Euro has not been much better – agreed. Maybe the models in general are just having issues because of the native variability involved with seasonal change?

who knows, but until it gets cold and starts snowing, no GFS solution will verify period – over month's worth of failure to even sniff out the D6+ synoptic modalities correctly pretty much demands we turn out the throw-out-the-GFS autopilot.

Btw, it was 32.4 and light rain all the way into work this morning. pretty much the worst conceivable result of this system that could be imaginatively designed. Anything worse could not exist in the physical universe so this the absolute pure and perfect quantum dog**** weather. You lived it -

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Euro is beginning to like the idea of something more and more around 12/4-5...last night's solution came in a bit cooler and was nearly a miller B redeveloper. Still too far out to really take any use in any deterministic solution though. Who knows what is going to happen with that system. Longer range still continues to feature a somewhat -NAO and a waffling Pacific...might see the EPO go back positive in the long range while GOA back to aleutions lower a bit and PNA goes more near neutral or even slightly positive....but not sure I believe this. PNA going positive on models has tended to be wiped out as we get closer. One thing is for sure, it doesn't look like any shortage of cold air in Canada spilling down.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Euro is beginning to like the idea of something more and more around 12/4-5...last night's solution came in a bit cooler and was nearly a miller B redeveloper. Still too far out to really take any use in any deterministic solution though. Who knows what is going to happen with that system. Longer range still continues to feature a somewhat -NAO and a waffling Pacific...might see the EPO go back positive in the long range while GOA back to aleutions lower a bit and PNA goes more near neutral or even slightly positive....but not sure I believe this. PNA going positive on models has tended to be wiped out as we get closer. One thing is for sure, it doesn't look like any shortage of cold air in Canada spilling down.

Canadian op almost looks like the euro ensembles believe it or not.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Canadian op almost looks like the euro ensembles believe it or not.

Yeah its further SE with that redeveloper. There definitely has been some signs that it may try to dig just a bit. Obviously we have a lot of time before we can really discuss any of the deterministic solutions seriously, but its a mild interest of note at this point.

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