CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 maybe this run will kick it east. Wow really surpressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 12z GFS Ens advertising a Miller B for 12/5-6. And to think--it's only a little more than a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Block is so strong that it forces the low off of ORF at hr 204...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Wow really surpressed. Snows in caribou for 60hrs...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Absolute monster -nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 LOL, congrats Caribou and Richmond on this run. What an anomalous setup. Blocking gone wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 LOL, congrats Caribou and Richmond on this run. What an anomalous setup. Blocking gone wild. This craziness is for the system next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 LOL, congrats Caribou and Richmond on this run. What an anomalous setup. Blocking gone wild. yeah that's pretty sweet. fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 LOL, congrats Caribou and Richmond on this run. What an anomalous setup. Blocking gone wild. Major supression with the storm around the 5th........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 This craziness is for the system next weekend? Yeah 12/5. The cutter from next week turns into a cutoff low in the Atlantic and backs in to give northern Maine, snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 LOL, congrats Caribou and Richmond on this run. What an anomalous setup. Blocking gone wild. While New England is a compact region in relation to other areas of the country, it's too bad that Caribou is still 300 miles from SNE. lol 37.7/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 This craziness is for the system next weekend? Yeah the one around the 5th is surpressed south thru virginia, The storm around the 1st lingers over the maratimes and snows in NE Maine for almost 80 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I'd rather see what the euro is showing today, instead of he trend for cutting to the west. We seem to be establishing a general trend of moving away from the GL scenario. It doesn't mean it won't happen, but this is sort of the opposite of what we've seen for the last two weeks, in terms of model trends. The ensembles should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I'd rather see what the euro is showing today, instead of he trend for cutting to the west. We seem to be establishing a general trend of moving away from the GL scenario. It doesn't mean it won't happen, but this is sort of the opposite of what we've seen for the last two weeks, in terms of model trends. The ensembles should be interesting. This. I agree. Trends towards a southerly solution seem to be materializing today. Obviously we still don't know if this will hold but I like the idea. 12z GFS ens. mean had a nice solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I'd rather see what the euro is showing today, instead of he trend for cutting to the west. We seem to be establishing a general trend of moving away from the GL scenario. It doesn't mean it won't happen, but this is sort of the opposite of what we've seen for the last two weeks, in terms of model trends. The ensembles should be interesting. It certainly is a better scenario even though at the moment it has the storm around the 5th surpressed south, Trend is moving things east......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 NAO block kills the storm on the 12z Euro, but certainly an improvement from GLC's. Still over 200 hrs away so plenty of time for the models to get a better read on this one, as of the 12z runs it seems that both the GFS and Euro have backed off the strong -PNA and Lakes Cutter solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I don't like highly anomalous set ups. We had too many of them last year and I ended up with a very warm and well below average snowfall winter. It bothers me to seem them showing up on the models...a lot lately it seems. Can we have a straight forward 6-12 inch early December snowstorm please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I don't like highly anomalous set ups. We had too many of them last year and I ended up with a very warm and well below average snowfall winter. It bothers me to seem them showing up on the models...a lot lately it seems. Can we have a straight forward 6-12 inch early December snowstorm please? I guess it comes down to personal tastes...but I love highly anomalous set-ups. Very challenging and intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2010 Author Share Posted November 26, 2010 This blocking is crazy that we are seeing now for the first week of December. Models are going to be suffering quite a bit from this I can imagine, The -PNA gets so dug out to the SW of the coast that is cuts off and you get a split flow with a PNA ridge by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I guess it comes down to personal tastes...but I love highly anomalous set-ups. Very challenging and intriguing. I understand that part and agree....I'm just saying so far ain't adding to much fun up here.... hpc prelim long ranger from this morning offers some hope I think: " THE OTHER STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY IS NEAR THE FAR WRN ALEUTIANS. THIS TELECONNECTS TO A DOWNSTREAM TROF FROM CANADA TO THE CENTRAL WEST COAST WITH A BROAD WEAKER DOWNSTREAM TROF IN THE MS VALLEY. LAST WEEKS LONGER TERM FORECAST BY GFS/ECMWF WHILE MATCHING A N ATL TELECONNECTION PROVED TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE WRN TELECONNECTION DID NOT FIT WELL EITHER. WE CAN CONCLUDE THAT THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION COMING IN THE LONGER TERM. HOWEVER DAILY MODELS DO NOT FIT WELL TO EITHER TELECONNECTION BUT FORTUNETLY THEY BASICALLY AGREE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF ENS MEANS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR UPDATED FORECAST PROGS. A STRONG MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SFC FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE PLAINS DAY 3 MON/MS VALLEY TUES THEN SWEEP THRU THE APPLCHNS REACHING THE COAST WED. N-S ORIENTED FRONT WITH GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW/STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BRING HEAVY FRONTAL RAINS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TUES AND THRU THE MID ATLC REGION AND NORTHEAST WED. WESTWARD ON THE BACKSIDE UNDER THE COLD MID LEVEL TROF MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. COLD AIR WILL PENETRATE WELL SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING THE FIRST WIDESPREAD COLD OUTBREAK WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEEP INTO THE SOUTH AND TO THE MID ATLC COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AGAIN LATE WEEK TO WEEKEND. ANOTHER OFFSHORE/SANTA ANA EVENT APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP MONDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 LOL at the 12z op Euro and op GFS. It's going to be a fun Dec 1-15 period I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I could see the 12/1-12/2 storm trending a bit further east and deeper with the secondary. Maybe a surprise for the Berks and Greens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I don't like highly anomalous set ups. We had too many of them last year and I ended up with a very warm and well below average snowfall winter. It bothers me to seem them showing up on the models...a lot lately it seems. Can we have a straight forward 6-12 inch early December snowstorm please? Don't fear them; it may take awhile this season, but they will lead us to the promised land. Last season was last season and its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Hard to tell what the Euro ensembles are doing with the 12/4-12/5 storm but it ain't a Lakes cutter. Looks sort of sheared underneath us with room for redevelopment with a strong -NAO. By 12/4 we develop a nice little split flow with a GOA low (+EPO) but some +PNA ridging which keeps the SE ridge away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I could see the 12/1-12/2 storm trending a bit further east and deeper with the secondary. Maybe a surprise for the Berks and Greens? pete buried while everyone else is in thongs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 pete buried while everyone else is in thongs Well, that is still climo at that point, anyway.....almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I could see the 12/1-12/2 storm trending a bit further east and deeper with the secondary. Maybe a surprise for the Berks and Greens? And White's as well if the trend continues........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Well, that is still climo at that point, anyway.....almost there. climo says hubba dave and will get in as well...even mashed potatoes for kev. ten more days from that us. or do you just wanna see kev dave and will in thongs one more time but one does get the idea we are finally moving in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I could see the 12/1-12/2 storm trending a bit further east and deeper with the secondary. Maybe a surprise for the Berks and Greens? It's almost a situation where some areas could change to a very brief period of snow at the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 It's almost a situation where some areas could change to a very brief period of snow at the very end. but that's verbatim. i think ryan is saying this thing could still trend further SE and give advisory snows to berks/ and greens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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