dryslot Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Highly anomalous setups do not mean bad solutions...you guys have got to get last winter out of your head. Feb 1969 was a highly anomalous setup and A chunk of eastern NE got 5 feet in 3 weeks. Dec 1992 was a highly anomalous setup with a blocked flow...that turned out well for many in the interior. Highly anomalous setups can be quite beneficial and deliver good storms. Last year we managed to get close misses in excruciating fashion, but that will happen once in every 3 blue moons, they come in all shapes and sizes. Will, The first good snowfall and it will be a distant memory............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2010 Author Share Posted November 26, 2010 18z GFS is at it again with that big retrograding solution....it looks uncannily like Dec 5-6, 1981. Come to think of it, wasn't Dec 1981 on the analogs for awhile? hmmmm.... In all seriousness, what a weird pattern showing up. Its so far out, its not worth really discussing the exact solutions excpet in a joking manner, but crazy blocked flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I'm off that weekend. Would love to enjoy a snowstorm at home!! Come up to VT and ski some pow Vermont's marketing slogan... "Winter in its original state." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 We had a very good block going yesterday and it didn't buy us squat unfortunately - in terms of snow. We wondered how a -PNA and a -NAO would affect sensible wx. Maybe in mid winter the result would be different. 18z GFS is at it again with that big retrograding solution....it looks uncannily like Dec 5-6, 1981. Come to think of it, wasn't Dec 1981 on the analogs for awhile? hmmmm.... In all seriousness, what a weird pattern showing up. Its so far out, its not worth really discussing the exact solutions excpet in a joking manner, but crazy blocked flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 At least the Grinch Storm held off until Dec 27 last year. I'd rather have it then than anywhere between 12/22 and 12/25. Hopefully we avoid it all together this year. It's even worse with snow on the ground. There was actually a little light snow on Christmas Night last year, that mixed with a little rain by the time I came back to BOS. Who am I to talk....I've been so fortunate over the last 3 Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 The worst grinch storm was Christmas 2005. Cold drenching rain and 30s out here on top of 6 inches of old snow. That technically made it a white Christmas, but very ugly. That rain may have held off until a little later over in E. NE. It's even worse with snow on the ground. There was actually a little light snow on Christmas Night last year, that mixed with a little rain by the time I came back to BOS. Who am I to talk....I've been so fortunate over the last 3 Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 WTF is the 18z GFS doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 18z GFS is at it again with that big retrograding solution....it looks uncannily like Dec 5-6, 1981. Come to think of it, wasn't Dec 1981 on the analogs for awhile? hmmmm.... In all seriousness, what a weird pattern showing up. Its so far out, its not worth really discussing the exact solutions excpet in a joking manner, but crazy blocked flow. Wow you're not kidding. Almost scary...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 WTF is the 18z GFS doing? Crazy phase that retrogrades and nails all of New Eng. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I wouldn't mind a replay of that wacky retro low from early January, but this is a month earlier and you have to worry about having all that marine air (with SST's 10F higher still) wrapped back into it. Wow you're not kidding. Almost scary...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 LOL, I love how that chunk of cold in Canada gets absolutely ripped south and then southeast at hr 300 on the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Crazy phase that retrogrades and nails all of New Eng. Yeah, Where it rains on me and snows on you......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 WTF is the 18z GFS doing? 12z and 18z GFS are feet upon feet of snow here. I can't even look at it. The vectors for upslope are incredible, coupled with synoptic support... can't even begin to fathom it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 LOL, I love how that chunk of cold in Canada gets absolutely ripped south and then southeast at hr 300 on the 18z gfs. It's got no where else to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I wouldn't mind a replay of that wacky retro low from early January, but this is a month earlier and you have to worry about having all that marine air (with SST's 10F higher still) wrapped back into it. As long as you're not getting screaming ne winds, you're fine. What it would likely do, is push the snow/sleet line further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 It's a scene right out of "The Day After Tomorrow". WTF is the 18z GFS doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 This is why we love the 18z GFS..... I think thats 80-100 hours of continuos snow for many places in New England And even better, Balt/DC/Philly are in the screw zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 This is why we love the 18z GFS..... I think thats 80-100 hours of continuos snow for many places in New England And even better, Balt/DC/Philly are in the screw zone One of these days it's going to be right.Why not now?lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Has anyone ever seen anything like this on a model prog? Detroit gets warning criteria snow from a low that's east of St John's in the Canadian maritimes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 lol ... excitement factor has quadrupled in the past hour. FIYYAAHHH!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 lol ... excitement factor has quadrupled in the past hour. FIYYAAHHH!!! The things the 200 hr 18z GFS can do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 The things the 200 hr 18z GFS can do Now we just need to still have this solution in 5 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Now we just need to still have this solution in 5 days... Funny thing is the GFS has been showing something like this the last 3 runs.... 6 hour entertainment you can rely on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Highly anomalous setups do not mean bad solutions...you guys have got to get last winter out of your head. Feb 1969 was a highly anomalous setup and A chunk of eastern NE got 5 feet in 3 weeks. Dec 1992 was a highly anomalous setup with a blocked flow...that turned out well for many in the interior. Highly anomalous setups can be quite beneficial and deliver good storms. Last year we managed to get close misses in excruciating fashion, but that will happen once in every 3 blue moons, they come in all shapes and sizes. of course you are right i apologize for my irrational fears , last year was very scarring for me, and you are right, it was once in a blue moon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 18z gfs ensembles are continuing the development and retrograde as well. I wish this was hr 120 and not 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 of course you are right i apologize for my irrational fears , last year was very scarring for me, and you are right, it was once in a blue moon It will be quite the amount of time passing before we see a miller b screw sne and dump on the MA, NYC getting 20" of snow and rain in the Berks, and a storm passing near and se of ACK in March with all rain for ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 18z gfs ensembles are continuing the development and retrograde as well. I wish this was hr 120 and not 240. book it once we get it inside 192, thats only 48 hours away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 If it is anything like this come next weekend it'll be one heckuva gtg. Weenies flying left, right, up and down. Need more than the extended GFS to advertise this, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 18z gfs ensembles are continuing the development and retrograde as well. I wish this was hr 120 and not 240. Ha, yeah. There's absolutely no way this works out but just thinking about how odd-ball the whole situation is, it is certainly something that sparks the imagination in a how-cool-would-that-be sort of way. The spatial coverage of rather significant precipitation is huge on these runs, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 It will be quite the amount of time passing before we see a miller b screw sne and dump on the MA, NYC getting 20" of snow and rain in the Berks, and a storm passing near and se of ACK in March with all rain for ORH. Thanks for the memories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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