Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

[powderfreak]

I could see the 12/1-12/2 storm trending a bit further east and deeper with the secondary. Maybe a surprise for the Berks and Greens?

I'm listening... I'll take anything. Half inch of sleet and ice today, forecast calling for 1-3" of snow showers tomorrow... this stuff is getting old. We need a good, healthy, snowfall that's not tainted and is over 2".

[Logan11]

I remember in 95-96 we got our first good snowstorm out near Albany on Dec. 10th and I was on the old ne.weather board then. The guys over in Eastern NE still got mix etc., but a week or so later the good things started coming for them also.

So point is ...that was a great winter and it didn't get going until Mid December.

Note: There has been a big elevational storm in Nov., but that was confined to the ski areas basically.

climo says hubba dave and will get in as well...even mashed potatoes for kev. ten more days from that us. or do you just wanna see kev dave and will in thongs one more time

but one does get the idea we are finally moving in the right direction.

[CoastalWx]

but that's verbatim.

i think ryan is saying this thing could still trend further SE and give advisory snows to berks/ and greens

Yeah if that low pivots south a little more, some more of us would see snow, but I think that would be much harder to do.

[CoastalWx]

climo says hubba dave and will get in as well...even mashed potatoes for kev. ten more days from that us. or do you just wanna see kev dave and will in thongs one more time

but one does get the idea we are finally moving in the right direction.

Climo doesn't say anything. The wx will do what it wants. You can't just say in ten more days it will be us.

[CT Rain]

Yeah if that low pivots south a little more, some more of us would see snow, but I think that would be much harder to do.

Yeah need the primary to be weaker too.

All in all I'm pretty pleased with the runs today. I'm looking at the Euro ensembles rolling in now.

[weatherMA]

I'm listening... I'll take anything. Half inch of sleet and ice today, forecast calling for 1-3" of snow showers tomorrow... this stuff is getting old. We need a good, healthy, snowfall that's not tainted and is over 2".

I'd be pumped if that was my forecast tommorow. Take what you can get.

[Logan11]

I see the Lake Erie band is making it all the way to the southeastern Dacks (barely) on the wsw flow. Maybe the Ontario band (once formed well) will head toward SLK and even N. VT. Although I guess the Greens kill that ever making it over.

I'm listening... I'll take anything. Half inch of sleet and ice today, forecast calling for 1-3" of snow showers tomorrow... this stuff is getting old. We need a good, healthy, snowfall that's not tainted and is over 2".

[Ginx snewx]

I remember in 95-96 we got our first good snowstorm out near Albany on Dec. 10th and I was on the old ne.weather board then. The guys over in Eastern NE still got mix etc., but a week or so later the good things started coming for them also.

So point is ...that was a great winter and it didn't get going until Mid December.

Note: There has been a big elevational storm in Nov., but that was confined to the ski areas basically.

Other than some good Dec's lately 75% of my winters do not start until Mid Dec and later on the CP.

[nzucker]

This blocking is crazy that we are seeing now for the first week of December. Models are going to be suffering quite a bit from this I can imagine,

The -PNA gets so dug out to the SW of the coast that is cuts off and you get a split flow with a PNA ridge by the end of the run.

Is that a -PNA and +PNA at the same time on the Day 10 ECM, Will?

[CT Rain]

Will what do you make of the 12z Euro Ens and GEFS?

[CoastalWx]

The d10 op is incredible. It basically has above normal heights around 55-60N and below normal heights along 40N latitude.

[Ginx snewx]

Will what do you make of the 12z Euro Ens and GEFS?

Looks like natural snow guns running, wax um up.

[ORH_wxman]

Climo doesn't say anything. The wx will do what it wants. You can't just say in ten more days it will be us.

Yeah climo will tell us who is favored when the deterministic solution is still too far out....but the actual weather will do whatever it damn well pleases....I am much better off climatologically than Cambridge on Dec 5th....but that didn't prevent Cambridge from getting 20" of snow while I got 14" on Dec 5, 2003.

I'm way better off climo-wise than DC on December 19th, but that didn't prevent them from getting 3x as much snow as I did last December 19th.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I remember in 95-96 we got our first good snowstorm out near Albany on Dec. 10th and I was on the old ne.weather board then. The guys over in Eastern NE still got mix etc., but a week or so later the good things started coming for them also.

So point is ...that was a great winter and it didn't get going until Mid December.

Note: There has been a big elevational storm in Nov., but that was confined to the ski areas basically.

I had a bout a 4-5" event that ended as rain and then flash froze in Novie of 1995......that was the kickoff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Climo doesn't say anything. The wx will do what it wants. You can't just say in ten more days it will be us.

What he means by "say" is favors and it certainly does favor different areas at different times.

[CoastalWx]

I had a bout a 4-5" event that ended as rain and then flash froze in Novie of 1995......that was the kickoff.

It's amazing how well I remember that event. Perhaps it was because it started an epic..epic season. 4" at my house.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah climo will tell us who is favored when the deterministic solution is still too far out....but the actual weather will do whatever it damn well pleases....I am much better off climatologically than Cambridge on Dec 5th....but that didn't prevent Cambridge from getting 20" of snow while I got 14" on Dec 5, 2003.

I'm way better off climo-wise than DC on December 19th, but that didn't prevent them from getting 3x as much snow as I did last December 19th.

Right....climo isn't a derterministic tool, but when the derterministic tools are at odds with each other, then I turn to climo....I also use climo to determine which long range threats to seriously consider early and late in the game....like when I didn't give tday a chance.

[CoastalWx]

What he means by "say" is favors and it certainly does favor different areas at different times.

I know what he means, but I think people may put too much stock into when they are favored for snow. That's all I meant. Obviously we are all favored even more 10 days from now, with the interior being the better spot compared to the coast.

[ORH_wxman]

Will what do you make of the 12z Euro Ens and GEFS?

They are all going nutty with the blocking past day 8...lol.

I'm honestly not sure what to make of all this. Everything is so blocked up in the pattern. I think the trends today are definitely good, but who knows what this is going to look like another 48 hours from now. One constant which I am pleased with is the EPO dump of frigid air into Canada...hopefully we can spread a nice sfc high to bring that southeast for some of the setups upcoming

[CoastalWx]

Right....climo isn't a derterministic tool, but when the derterministic tools are at odds with each other, then I turn to climo....I also use climo to determine which long range threats to seriously consider early and late in the game....like when I didn't give tday a chance.

Even the models never really gave T-Day a chance, except for the long range mm5 that was running in Kevin's basement.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I know what he means, but I think people may put too much stock into when they are favored for snow. That's all I meant. Obviously we are all favored even more 10 days from now, with the interior being the better spot compared to the coast.

I suppose.....I really tend to ride climo very early and late, until guidance reaches an emphatic conscensus relatively close in that it will indeed be a wintry event.

[CoastalWx]

God would I give to see individual euro ensemble members..lol. You'd probably have to give up your first born in order to get them.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well looks like Wiz's severe outbreak is slowly trending colder..and could even end as wet snow in the hills...and then the fun really begins.

We are going to have ALOT of snow talk to discuss for the GTG next weekend

[40/70 Benchmark]

Even the models never really gave T-Day a chance, except for the long range mm5 that was running in Kevin's basement.

True, but even if they were, I wouldn't have bought it.....I just about ruled it out without even looking.

Climo is my default forecast in Novie, until deterministic guidance provides me with an overwhelming signal to stray from it.

[cpickett79]

Climo doesn't say anything. The wx will do what it wants. You can't just say in ten more days it will be us.

if that what you thought i meant.. you must think i'm a retard. cool.

temp fallng quickly here.......

i must say that last nite /today's' storm did trend cooler.....than modeled

much of extreme N. MA had ice outside 495.... should i say if you look at the weather bug data most sites were 32/31 ish for alot of the morning from just outside the NW part of 495 up thru southern new hamshire....and my temp in framingham was 34 degrees right thru the heaviest precip. I do believe i was supposed to warm a bit more. very close to a decent ice storm IMBY while other's had it....and most in NH had 100% frozen save the immedite SE coast. MPM had ice right thru 95% of precip.

[Damage In Tolland]

True, but even if they were, I wouldn't have bought it.....I just about ruled it out without even looking.

Climo is my default forecast in Novie, until deterministic guidance provides me with an overwhelming signal to stray from it.

Should have bet you on the WWA..They were flying all across interior Mass last nite

[ORH_wxman]

God would I give to see individual euro ensemble members..lol. You'd probably have to give up your first born in order to get them.

The amount of time it has low pressure east of us makes me think there are some pretty bad weenie solutions on them that stall the low for 2-3 days. With a pattern this blocked up on guidance, its actually feasible despite the strong Nina.

[MaineJayhawk]

Well looks like Wiz's severe outbreak is slowly trending colder..and could even end as wet snow in the hills...and then the fun really begins.

We are going to have ALOT of snow talk to discuss for the GTG next weekend

As we thought. This possibility has been advertised for a number of days now.

We need to find a wifi-enabled watering hole. Do you know anybody in Worcester who could point us in the right direction?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Should have bet you on the WWA..They were flying all across interior Mass last nite

Yep...I would have lost that one, but I'll take my chances on that every time.

You won't win them all, but you'll win most.

Good call.

I was right for my though, which is all I really cared about lol

[CoastalWx]

True, but even if they were, I wouldn't have bought it.....I just about ruled it out without even looking.

Climo is my default forecast in Novie, until deterministic guidance provides me with an overwhelming signal to stray from it.

Well, I understand your thoughts, I guess you can rule it out to a certain point.