The January 25/26 Storm (Part 2)

[jburns]

No idea where you are in relation to HBI but that station definitely mixes over

I'm in the far northwest corner. The snow capital of Randolph county, which is very similar to being the warmest beach at Point Barrow.

[griteater]

No question there would be thundersnow with this setup

[BullCityWx]

I'm in the far northwest corner. The snow capital of Randolph county, which is very similar to being the warmest beach at Point Barrow.

PTI barely escapes with all snow, FYI.

[FoothillsNC]

Robert, what is the pressure on the storm as it goes north of the VA/NC boarder. If deep enough we could see a major wind event after the storm passes.

980 over Long Island at 120.

Foothills I think BNA is at .48 QPF. Correct me if I am wrong?

I looked again and its about .75 or .80" through 120 hours...that all inclusive. Very sharp cutoff toward western TN.

[Wow]

Thunder snow?!

Indeed.

[jburns]

No idea where you are in relation to HBI but that station definitely mixes over

LOL Google HBI and look at the top result.

[Rankin5150]

Well, it doesnt really matter because the GFS is so wrong at this point.

I know whatcha mean. Just trying to learn. You all just tell me to "simmer down" if I am bogging you down with questions. As a matter of fact, I will wait till later. You Pro's are in storm mode and do not need petty questions from me anyway. Thanks for all you guys do with providing info!!

[superjames1992]

LOL Google HBI and look at the top result.

That is pretty funny!

[WeatherNC]

0z ECMWF

RDU

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

( C ) ( C ) ( MB ) ( PCT ) ( PCT ) (IN) (DM) THK

TUE 18Z 25-JAN 7.8 2.1 1018 68 13 0.00 558 543

WED 00Z 26-JAN 4.7 0.7 1013 95 100 0.09 557 546

WED 06Z 26-JAN 5.1 4.1 999 98 98 0.63 550 551

WED 12Z 26-JAN 2.2 -0.9 996 98 90 0.58 537 540

WED 18Z 26-JAN 10.1 -0.1 1001 50 66 0.08 541 540

THU 00Z 27-JAN 4.5 -0.4 1008 59 25 0.00 545 539

PGV

TUE 06Z 25-JAN 1.5 0.2 1024 90 42 0.01 558 539

TUE 12Z 25-JAN 2.4 0.8 1022 94 47 0.00 559 541

TUE 18Z 25-JAN 12.3 3.0 1018 70 44 0.00 560 545

WED 00Z 26-JAN 8.6 3.1 1012 97 95 0.13 559 549

WED 06Z 26-JAN 10.3 8.1 997 98 94 0.82 554 556

WED 12Z 26-JAN 4.9 0.4 992 96 58 0.26 538 545

WED 18Z 26-JAN 10.7 -1.0 998 53 68 0.05 540 542

THU 00Z 27-JAN 6.9 0.1 1006 57 38 0.00 545 540

RWI

WED 00Z 26-JAN 6.8 1.8 1013 96 97 0.09 558 548

WED 06Z 26-JAN 7.5 7.0 998 98 96 0.79 553 554

WED 12Z 26-JAN 2.8 -0.8 993 98 81 0.35 536 542

WED 18Z 26-JAN 10.6 -0.7 998 51 72 0.10 539 541

THU 00Z 27-JAN 6.0 -0.1 1006 57 32 0.00 544 539

THU 06Z 27-JAN 1.7 1.2 1011 65 8 0.00 547 538

GSO

TUE 12Z 25-JAN -4.5 -0.4 1023 88 18 0.00 556 538

TUE 18Z 25-JAN 6.0 0.8 1018 64 10 0.00 556 541

WED 00Z 26-JAN 2.5 -1.1 1013 94 100 0.04 554 544

WED 06Z 26-JAN 1.3 0.0 1003 99 100 0.33 547 545

WED 12Z 26-JAN 2.0 -1.8 1000 91 91 0.54 538 538

WED 18Z 26-JAN 6.1 -1.1 1004 63 49 0.01 542 539

THU 00Z 27-JAN 0.9 -2.2 1011 69 24 0.00 546 537

CLT

TUE 12Z 25-JAN -3.8 0.4 1022 89 11 0.00 557 540

TUE 18Z 25-JAN 6.3 1.4 1018 61 66 0.00 556 542

WED 00Z 26-JAN 2.1 -0.1 1012 98 100 0.11 554 545

WED 06Z 26-JAN 1.3 -0.8 1003 99 99 0.41 544 541

WED 12Z 26-JAN 2.2 -1.6 1004 88 77 0.22 540 537

WED 18Z 26-JAN 8.1 -1.1 1008 57 39 0.00 547 541

CAE

TUE 18Z 25-JAN 8.0 1.6 1017 60 96 0.00 559 545

WED 00Z 26-JAN 3.9 4.4 1008 97 94 0.30 556 550

WED 06Z 26-JAN 2.6 -0.2 1003 99 79 0.37 544 542

WED 12Z 26-JAN 2.2 -1.2 1006 95 43 0.08 547 542

WED 18Z 26-JAN 10.4 0.4 1010 51 19 0.00 552 544

GSP

TUE 12Z 25-JAN -3.3 0.1 1021 91 13 0.00 557 540

TUE 18Z 25-JAN 5.3 0.1 1018 64 88 0.01 555 541

WED 00Z 26-JAN 1.2 -0.6 1011 98 100 0.25 551 543

WED 06Z 26-JAN 0.9 -1.9 1006 97 86 0.59 542 537

WED 12Z 26-JAN 0.3 -1.0 1006 82 51 0.08 543 538

ATL

TUE 12Z 25-JAN 1.8 2.3 1018 74 64 0.00 557 543

TUE 18Z 25-JAN 2.6 0.8 1015 98 91 0.25 556 543

WED 00Z 26-JAN 2.1 0.5 1010 99 88 0.49 548 541

WED 06Z 26-JAN 1.6 -2.4 1011 95 54 0.29 545 537

[FoothillsNC]

the 5H is starting to cut off over the Southern Apps of n. GA and western NC and is fully closed by the time it gets to northern NC, so that working in tandem with a rapidly strengthening low will spell some rumbles of thunder I think, somwhere over the Carolinas. Fascinating storm. The rates are going to be impressive as well, with the big flakes falling not the tiny ones. This still isn't a done deal though but atleast theres a lot of support for a storm now.

[Carvers Gap]

I can't see the qpf maps yet, but I would think that a track across the GOM to Savannah and up to ILM is basically the Christmas storm path w/ an inland flavor. Though the qpf looks good for E TN on this run, I think it would be tough to overcome the downsloping problems of moisture coming over the mountains. W/ that track my guess is the qpf would cut sharply at the top of the Apps.

[DeepSouthSC]

0z ECMWF

RDU

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

( C ) ( C ) ( MB ) ( PCT ) ( PCT ) (IN) (DM) THK

TUE 18Z 25-JAN 7.8 2.1 1018 68 13 0.00 558 543

WED 00Z 26-JAN 4.7 0.7 1013 95 100 0.09 557 546

WED 06Z 26-JAN 5.1 4.1 999 98 98 0.63 550 551

WED 12Z 26-JAN 2.2 -0.9 996 98 90 0.58 537 540

WED 18Z 26-JAN 10.1 -0.1 1001 50 66 0.08 541 540

THU 00Z 27-JAN 4.5 -0.4 1008 59 25 0.00 545 539

PGV

TUE 06Z 25-JAN 1.5 0.2 1024 90 42 0.01 558 539

TUE 12Z 25-JAN 2.4 0.8 1022 94 47 0.00 559 541

TUE 18Z 25-JAN 12.3 3.0 1018 70 44 0.00 560 545

WED 00Z 26-JAN 8.6 3.1 1012 97 95 0.13 559 549

WED 06Z 26-JAN 10.3 8.1 997 98 94 0.82 554 556

WED 12Z 26-JAN 4.9 0.4 992 96 58 0.26 538 545

WED 18Z 26-JAN 10.7 -1.0 998 53 68 0.05 540 542

THU 00Z 27-JAN 6.9 0.1 1006 57 38 0.00 545 540

RWI

WED 00Z 26-JAN 6.8 1.8 1013 96 97 0.09 558 548

WED 06Z 26-JAN 7.5 7.0 998 98 96 0.79 553 554

WED 12Z 26-JAN 2.8 -0.8 993 98 81 0.35 536 542

WED 18Z 26-JAN 10.6 -0.7 998 51 72 0.10 539 541

THU 00Z 27-JAN 6.0 -0.1 1006 57 32 0.00 544 539

THU 06Z 27-JAN 1.7 1.2 1011 65 8 0.00 547 538

GSO

TUE 12Z 25-JAN -4.5 -0.4 1023 88 18 0.00 556 538

TUE 18Z 25-JAN 6.0 0.8 1018 64 10 0.00 556 541

WED 00Z 26-JAN 2.5 -1.1 1013 94 100 0.04 554 544

WED 06Z 26-JAN 1.3 0.0 1003 99 100 0.33 547 545

WED 12Z 26-JAN 2.0 -1.8 1000 91 91 0.54 538 538

WED 18Z 26-JAN 6.1 -1.1 1004 63 49 0.01 542 539

THU 00Z 27-JAN 0.9 -2.2 1011 69 24 0.00 546 537

CLT

TUE 12Z 25-JAN -3.8 0.4 1022 89 11 0.00 557 540

TUE 18Z 25-JAN 6.3 1.4 1018 61 66 0.00 556 542

WED 00Z 26-JAN 2.1 -0.1 1012 98 100 0.11 554 545

WED 06Z 26-JAN 1.3 -0.8 1003 99 99 0.41 544 541

WED 12Z 26-JAN 2.2 -1.6 1004 88 77 0.22 540 537

WED 18Z 26-JAN 8.1 -1.1 1008 57 39 0.00 547 541

CAE

TUE 18Z 25-JAN 8.0 1.6 1017 60 96 0.00 559 545

WED 00Z 26-JAN 3.9 4.4 1008 97 94 0.30 556 550

WED 06Z 26-JAN 2.6 -0.2 1003 99 79 0.37 544 542

WED 12Z 26-JAN 2.2 -1.2 1006 95 43 0.08 547 542

WED 18Z 26-JAN 10.4 0.4 1010 51 19 0.00 552 544

GSP

TUE 12Z 25-JAN -3.3 0.1 1021 91 13 0.00 557 540

TUE 18Z 25-JAN 5.3 0.1 1018 64 88 0.01 555 541

WED 00Z 26-JAN 1.2 -0.6 1011 98 100 0.25 551 543

WED 06Z 26-JAN 0.9 -1.9 1006 97 86 0.59 542 537

WED 12Z 26-JAN 0.3 -1.0 1006 82 51 0.08 543 538

ATL

TUE 12Z 25-JAN 1.8 2.3 1018 74 64 0.00 557 543

TUE 18Z 25-JAN 2.6 0.8 1015 98 91 0.25 556 543

WED 00Z 26-JAN 2.1 0.5 1010 99 88 0.49 548 541

WED 06Z 26-JAN 1.6 -2.4 1011 95 54 0.29 545 537

Appreciate it, WeatherNC! You've saved some folk some work, as well.

[superjames1992]

Thanks for the info, Chris! 0z Euro actually looks good for RDU after the changeover. Loving the trends tonight!

BTW, HPC has posted their QPF map.

[FoothillsNC]

another storm and the bottome drops out on the temps late in the run of the Euro. VERY cold.

[Pilotwx]

Looks like 24 hr. storm as well, and a big upslope event for those east of the APPS. Which will not get factored into the QPF number until the closer we get.

the 5H is starting to cut off over the Southern Apps of n. GA and western NC and is fully closed by the time it gets to northern NC, so that working in tandem with a rapidly strengthening low will spell some rumbles of thunder I think, somwhere over the Carolinas. Fascinating storm. The rates are going to be impressive as well, with the big flakes falling not the tiny ones. This still isn't a done deal though but atleast theres a lot of support for a storm now.

[BullCityWx]

another storm and the bottome drops out on the temps late in the run of the Euro. VERY cold.

was going to post the same thing...looks like widespread -15C or lower at the 850 level.

[NCSNOW]

LOL Google HBI and look at the top result.

Jburns the sounding at the airport is all snow on the euro. Gets razor thin close for a few hours taken verbatiam. We need the Euro to track about 20-40 miles futher east and Tgarren and the whole county will be safe. Ukie is more than perfect and wed be in pretty good shape with the euro as well. But I don't like close encounters with transition lines. Had my fill of them. Actually PTI which is probably a 20 minute drive or less from your neck of the woods has a colder sounding then Charlotte Douglas. Plenty of time to sweat this one out over the weekend.

[jburns]

Jburns the sounding at the airport is all snow on the euro. Gets razor thin close for a few hours taken verbatiam. We need the Euro to track about 20-40 miles futher east and Tgarren and the whole county will be safe. Ukie is more than perfect and wed be in pretty good shape with the euro as well. But I don't like close encounters with transition lines. Had my fill of them. Actually PTI which is probably a 20 minute drive or less from your neck of the woods has a colder sounding then Charlotte Douglas. Plenty of time to sweat this one out over the weekend.

Yep. As you know we pretty much go through this with every winter event. Having the transition line progged this close 4+ days out is a bit unsettling. My experience is that the temps tend to trend up slightly in the last 24 hours before the start. As usual here, when it starts to fall we will finally know what we will get.

[POWERSTROKE]

Yep. As you know we pretty much go through this with every winter event. Having the transition line progged this close 4+ days out is a bit unsettling. My experience is that the temps tend to trend up slightly in the last 24 hours before the start. As usual here, when it starts to fall we will finally know what we will get.

agree

[Freeze]

FoothilllsNC says:

"at 114, its over for the Carolinas. Also meant to add for RDU area at 104 there is heavy rain but just after once the low is over HAT or just west of HAT then the central piedmont is in heavy wrap around snow. Remember, this will be a deepening slow moving storm, so its probably a good snow there as well, esp. closer to GSO where its colder for longer"

Based on this run, you say it's over at 114. I therefore assume it's an 18 hour event from start to finish. Do you agree?

[Rob]

the 5H is starting to cut off over the Southern Apps of n. GA and western NC and is fully closed by the time it gets to northern NC, so that working in tandem with a rapidly strengthening low will spell some rumbles of thunder I think, somwhere over the Carolinas. Fascinating storm. The rates are going to be impressive as well, with the big flakes falling not the tiny ones. This still isn't a done deal though but atleast theres a lot of support for a storm now.

Given how we talked about the last storm here that was south of us, how do you feel BNA stands in this one? South Tennessee and Huntsville as we all know did very well. I think one thing that really worked against us last time was the dry layer that we had to punch out. I really think if we can saturated fully 2 hours sooner we could have seen 6".

[WeatherNC]

Appreciate it, WeatherNC! You've saved some folk some work, as well.

GSP is a BIG winner this EC run, and am scooping out the area wsw of CLT should the scenario hold, favoring along and west of 77 SN solution atm, even down to CAE!

Edit: ATL is very close btw, NE GA would be in for a major thump verbatim!!!

[phil882]

This looks nice... 850mb streamlines with 850mb temperature... this implies a lot of lift going on across NC and northeast GA at 96 hours.

[Carvers Gap]

Given how we talked about the last storm here that was south of us, how do you feel BNA stands in this one? South Tennessee and Huntsville as we all know did very well. I think one thing that really worked against us last time was the dry layer that we had to punch out. I really think if we can saturated fully 2 hours sooner we could have seen 6".

For Nashville and the Tri-Cities, that track is not a favorable one. I can't remember getting significant snow from a slp in Savannah. Unfortunately, the trend is not a good one. This run would be good taken verbatim due to the northern extent of the precip shield. In actuality, that track would probably bring our areas very little. Now, if the high pressure gets out of the way (which it may if the storm continues to slow) then TN would be in a much more favored location. Still a long way out, but looks to me like the models are converging on a slightly inland track - but far enough south that you wouldn't want to breath to hard or it may just miss us altogether. There will still be some waffling.

[BullCityWx]

This looks nice... 850mb streamlines with 850mb temperature... this implies a lot of lift going on across NC and northeast GA at 96 hours.

Beautiful moisture influx too, I'd bet.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

For Nashville and the Tri-Cities, that track is not a favorable one. I can't remember getting significant snow from a slp in Savannah. Unfortunately, the trend is not a good one. This run would be good taken verbatim due to the northern extent of the precip shield. In actuality, that track would probably bring our areas very little. Now, if the high pressure gets out of the way (which it may if the storm continues to slow) then TN would be in a much more favored location. Still a long way out, but looks to me like the models are converging on a slightly inland track - but far enough south that you wouldn't want to breath to hard or it may just miss us altogether. There will still be some waffling.

Look no further than the 93 storm, you got plenty from that track, which is very simular to this track. This is not some weak gulf low, this one is bombing as it goes up the coast, there is only one model (of the big three) not on board for your area getting slammed. Then you would probably get 3-4 inches from NW flow alone, after the storm exits.

[Carvers Gap]

Look no further than the 93 storm, you got plenty from that track, which is very simular to this track. This is not some weak gulf low, this one is bombing as it goes up the coast, there is only one model (of the big three) not on board for your area getting slammed. Then you would probably get 3-4 inches from NW flow after the storm exits.

Hey, Cyclonic. Good to hear from you. I try not to invoke '93 to often. It was just an amazing storm. You know, I thought the '93 storm was a tad more inland w/ a good chunk of energy actually moving up west of the Apps. I was not a winter weather hobbiest at the time. So, I'm not an expert on that one. But I did live it. Don't remember that slp going to Savannah either. I was in college driving around in 60 mph winds w/ a buddy in his jeep. Was having a conversation tonight. You might be able to help me with this since you are at elevation here in TN just down the road. How long have you had snow on the ground at your elevation - since early December? BTW, not really in a prime local for nw flow snow. We get very little in Kingsport. Though, I can drive ten minutes and see it.

[Stovepipe]

I've seen nothing (GFS craziness aside) that would suggest that east TN would not get absolutely slammed by this storm. We'll see.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Hey, Cyclonic. Good to hear from you. I try not to invoke '93 to often. It was just an amazing storm. You know, I thought the '93 storm was a tad more inland w/ a good chunk of energy actually moving up west of the Apps.

This one will probably not be as wound up as 93, but you would certainly have to nit pick to locate differences in track as modeled by the euro. Also this one has plenty of energy west of the apps

93 storm for track reference only

How long have you had snow on the ground at your elevation - since early December? BTW, not really in a prime local for nw flow snow. We get very little in Kingsport. Though, I can drive ten minutes and see it.

I've had snow on the ground off and on 99 percent of the winter since late November. If your in upper east TN you will get plenty of NW flow, it may not be orographic upslope but it will accumulate if guidance verifies.

[Carvers Gap]

I've seen nothing (GFS craziness aside) that would suggest that east TN would not get absolutely slammed by this storm. We'll see.

Would dearly love to be wrong on this one. That said. It would take a truly powerful storm(almost blizzard like proportions) to be powerful enough to drive moisture over the mountains and overcome downsloping issues - if the 0z Euro track was correct tonight w/ an slp in Savannah. The pitfall is if the southeast jog continues. I usually base my thinking on model trends. KTYS and KTRI are much closer on the 0z run to the westward cut-off than the12z run. I have to admit, I did not see the southeast jog coming. Could be a waffle. Probably not.

Just got a look at the 0z Euro in 6 hr increments. There are substantial differences in the amount of moisture able to make it up west of the Apps - substantial. @ 12z most of TN was engulfed in moisture. 0z it is very limited to how far north it will carry and how far west it goes. Qpf was cut by almost 1/3 on this run. Though, this far out...take that w/ a grain of salt.