MaineJayhawk Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 How about this Arnold? I always think Tom Arnold. Trusting Ekster on this one, plus the radar would seem to indicate the higher non-NAM totals for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I threw out the 06z nam. the 03z srefs, ec, gfs are in decent agreement. this stuff is adding up quick. What do you think of the radar right now? I'm a bit concerned for a big hit to the NW of the sfc low at least until it reaches BGR...but its start to fill in fast....its just a bit concerning to me that the 00z NAM (with a few other models) and then the 06z NAM backed off a bit....but they all horrendously busted in NJ and NE MD. Its a nasty system to forecast. My vortmax rule of going S of SNE I think is safe...we won't see widespread 10" amounts because of that (but who knows, still a ways to go)....it goes too far NW. For you, its a bit dicier as the system matures a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I just picture some tall, geeky type guy named Arnold with gangly arms ..He needs to switch back to Mekster No way, he is Arnold from T2...its perfect. He was kind of a machine in BOX anyway, so it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well based on how hard its snowing along with good dendrites in CT it would appear the RUC has done a good job with this My decision to sleep until 430 worked out, heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What do you think of the radar right now? I'm a bit concerned for a big hit to the NW of the sfc low at least until it reaches BGR...but its start to fill in fast....its just a bit concerning to me that the 00z NAM (with a few other models) and then the 06z NAM backed off a bit....but they all horrendously busted in NJ and NE MD. Its a nasty system to forecast. My vortmax rule of going S of SNE I think is safe...we won't see widespread 10" amounts because of that (but who knows, still a ways to go)....it goes too far NW. For you, its a bit dicier as the system matures a bit more. SSS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks to be really sliding too much to the east for my liking. Is it going to tug north at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What do you think of the radar right now? I'm a bit concerned for a big hit to the NW of the sfc low at least until it reaches BGR...but its start to fill in fast....its just a bit concerning to me that the 00z NAM (with a few other models) and then the 06z NAM backed off a bit....but they all horrendously busted in NJ and NE MD. Its a nasty system to forecast. My vortmax rule of going S of SNE I think is safe...we won't see widespread 10" amounts because of that (but who knows, still a ways to go)....it goes too far NW. For you, its a bit dicier as the system matures a bit more. I don't think it's time to panic yet. The 09z ruc is overdone with giving you 8-9" of snow...but it looks to maul you between 12z and 14z. If the radar sucks in an hour and a half then you know you're cooked...but wait til 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I don't think it's time to panic yet. The 09z ruc is overdone with giving you 8-9" of snow...but it looks to maul you between 12z and 14z. If the radar sucks in an hour and a half then you know you're cooked...but wait til 12z. Yeah I think we'll see the darkening radar on the west side of the precip shield as the low strengthens. It isn't ideal, but it usually happens pretty quickly anytime you get a rapidly strengthening low to the S of LI. The radar shades all darken before it exits stage right. I'm def not looking for 9"...just looking for 6" as that would be perfect for my forecast of 4-8"...but anything in the 6-9" range would be preferable for me to satisfy both my snow addiction and forecast verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Is that gonna be rain or heavy wet snow that move over Messenger's area? That's the big question at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Is that gonna be rain or heavy wet snow that move over Messenger's area? That's the big question at this point Still hanging the hat on 6-12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Still hanging the hat on 6-12? Absolutely..I'll be pretty shocked if almost every site in SNE outside of SE mass doesn;'t grab at least 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The ratios have got to be like 20 or 30 to 1 here (or there's tremendous wind, which there isn't)... cause the radar may look like rubbish by we got rates of near .75 inches+ per hour... measured 1.5-1.75, 45 minutes after measuring an inch... KLEB. 2 inches and I'm off to bed. Be interesting to see what falls when i wake up around 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 looks like we got about 3 inches so far eyeballing it will check in a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Absolutely..I'll be pretty shocked if almost every site in SNE outside of SE mass doesn;'t grab at least 6 That actually makes me feel better. I look at the radar and think "done in 2 hours" then I read what you and Will write and all is good... This is fluffy stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Absolutely..I'll be pretty shocked if almost every site in SNE outside of SE mass doesn;'t grab at least 6 I think you'll find that the 4-8" was the better forecast....but we still have a few hours to go to see what happens. You are the best optimistic forecaster on this board, but this one might have you respect the vortmax rule once its done. Now that I said that, we're going to see a 12/23/97 explosion on the radar in the next 90 minutes and have widespread 12"amounts, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That actually makes me feel better. I look at the radar and think "done in 2 hours" then I read what you and Will write and all is good... This is fluffy stuff! Done in 2 hrs? It's still snowing back in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Done in 2 hrs? It's still snowing back in PA Yeah, but to my untrained eye, it looks to be headed almost due east, and I don't get how the snow will fill in on the backside. From reading on here, that should not be a problem. Just a case of the yips... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think you'll find that the 4-8" was the better forecast....but we still have a few hours to go to see what happens. You are the best optimistic forecaster on this board, but this one might have you respect the vortmax rule once its done. Now that I said that, we're going to see a 12/23/97 explosion on the radar in the next 90 minutes and have widespread 12"amounts, lol. It could be 4-8 though I still think most folks get at least 6..and some will get 10..I think my high end numbers will end up being too high though. Still I feel pretty good all in all when most were settling on a 1-3 or 2-4 type event on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hambone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No way, he is Arnold from T2...its perfect. He was kind of a machine in BOX anyway, so it works. I'm going Old School... Arnold Ziffel aka Arnold the Pig. Snowing pretty good here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Using my visibility gage here this is def S+... vis is about 1/4 mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I guess I'm missing the fun by about 18 hours. Trying to make the most of my last hours in the tropics to the wonders of NE winter. Gather you folks out east and to the northeast cash in on this. Hopefully, I'l have a few good new inches when I get back to the Pit. Then--bring on mid-wekk! Glad I'm not in Jamaica *if* that should verify. What a monster. But, I guess that's for another thread. ENjoy the snow day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Snowing hard here...but its Arnold baking powder...the denrite growth is disappointing...we have some dendrites in there but its mostly small flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Snowing pretty hard...piling up now.....9z RUC absolutely croaks us most of the morning. Would make 6-12 a lock. All the schools closed after waking up and looking out the window. Boston last night has probably been vindicated but still a wimpy move 12 hours early on a decent but not blockbuster storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Dendrites are here...finally!!!. With this heavy band....but we'll see if they stick around after it moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Kneehigh tubes has almost 4 inches in Westchester...Time for Sne to rock out with socks on cox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 .75" as of 5:45, not accumulating very well. Should get some heavier stuff in here soon, picking up to mod snow at 20F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Dendrites are here...finally!!!. With this heavy band....but we'll see if they stick around after it moves out. hopefully that stuff over windham county can build further north and get you....that's the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Borderline heavy snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 models say your snowflakes should improve...but this might just be like the ol 12/13/07 baking soda bonanaza. Its improved a lot in this band....much better than 12/13/07 baking powder shake-fest. But I'm skeptical that it sticks around...the RUC has much better lift moving overhead in the next 2-3 hours, so hopefully its all good from here on out. But if 12/13/07 taught us anything, don't believe the cross sections until you actually see the dendrite landing on your coat sleeve. Remember how it showed decent dendrite growth? Then it was garbage for the actual event. I think we talked about it on of our vintage late night '08 or '09 sprees...we usually want to see the lift very deep and pretty strong. You loved the 20 microbar per second threshold IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Dendrites are here...finally!!!. With this heavy band....but we'll see if they stick around after it moves out. that burst put down a good .75 with good growth, went to eh for a while, good growth mixing back in 1.5 new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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