yankeex777 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not really true..the Nogaps was more west with every system this year then the rest of the guidance and what verified in the end was a more western track including this event coming later tonight into tomorrow. You generally do not want to see a model such as the NOGAPS with a very progressive bias that far NW...the reality of the NOGAPS would have it to the SE by a wide margin with its bias. However...its not...its west... I think the progressive nature of the NOGAPS causes the high to slip out east too soon. That fubars pretty much everything. stark difference between the Euro and NOGAPS is that the Euro moves that high north not east like the nogaps. I trust the euro way more than i do the nogaps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I will post what I posted in the Mid-Atlantic--it is great to get excited, but I would temper that excitement with the reality of the situation at hand. This is a tough forecast for the models to handle--very tough. Operational runs are almost useless beyond 100-120 hours. Here is a good look at the GFS operational in the Pacific. Watch each wave disturbance break off the Pacific Jet then pass over the Eastern Pacific Ridge. The exact timing of these low amplitude features and how strong they eventually are is almost impossible for the models to accurately simulate--then more variability is thrown into the mix as they pass through the coastal ranges and dense mountain networks of BC. This is likely going to be some of the lowest verification scores of the models all winter with this pattern we are getting into. http://weather.utah....fs004&r=PA&d=TS If it gets any lower than Dec 26, 2010 then we're talking about imaginary number territory Those features have to make it onshore before we really can tell what's going to happen with this, but I'm having a nice stroll down memory lane with PD2 because that was my biggest snowstorm, with 28 inches of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Didn't the Euro also have back to back runs showing a flooding rainstorm and major warmup? I would think we need at least 1 or 2 more runs similiar to this to get really excited. I will post what I posted in the Mid-Atlantic--it is great to get excited, but I would temper that excitement with the reality of the situation at hand. This is a tough forecast for the models to handle--very tough. Operational runs are almost useless beyond 100-120 hours. Here is a good look at the GFS operational in the Pacific. Watch each wave disturbance break off the Pacific Jet then pass over the Eastern Pacific Ridge. The exact timing of these low amplitude features and how strong they eventually are is almost impossible for the models to accurately simulate--then more variability is thrown into the mix as they pass through the coastal ranges and dense mountain networks of BC. This is likely going to be some of the lowest verification scores of the models all winter with this pattern we are getting into. http://weather.utah....fs004&r=PA&d=TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The El Nino definitely had a role in developing PDII, as well as the Gulf, since the storm was a big rainmaker in So. Cal and it had a great tap directly from the tropics. We were fortunate to have that massive high in Quebec to keep the cold air in. When the snow started I think it was in the single digits. And it crawled north at most 10 mph. DC had over a foot of snow before we had a flake. The sleet came veeerrryyy close though at the end, and I had a few pellets mix in at the very end, but not enough to lower the totals at all. Still widespread 20"+ in this area. But for that much snow, it was quite boring. No real banding structure or anything like that-just continuous overrunning of that massive tropical tap into the cold dome. The funny thing is we had similar enso with Feb 83, and the same general set up, but that one delivered amazing snowfall rates with thundersnow for hours on end. I didnt get any sleet in either storm, but neither featured high winds either. We got the same kind of widespread snow totals in Jan 96, but obviously a very different set up with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well, thank you very much for saying that. I think I stunk, but I tried honestly. As far as the Euro holding back energy, a met said that it really does not do that at all, except for closed off southwest lows. This is apparently a misconception that people have. By the way, you did an excellent job with the pbp. Seems Tombo prefers to stay in his own area. Let him. Also, so much for the Euro bias to hang back energy. Maybe we should now say the GFS and GGEM have that bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Didn't the Euro also have back to back runs showing a flooding rainstorm and major warmup? I would think we need at least 1 or 2 more runs similiar to this to get really excited. Its a good time to be interested but not extremely excited (although I dont see anything wrong with showing emotion-- if it doesnt work out, big deal, we just move on to the next one ) The thing about those euro rainstorm runs was they had little or no support from the ensembles. At 3:30 we'll see if this one does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's like the whole KU spread of scenarios is being played out in one season for a la Nina being dominate with a few new twists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z EURO QPF 120 HR valid 186 FR 6z jan 28 grey .25-.5 (didn't fill in all the way back thru OH) light blue .5-.75 purple .75-1" dark red 1"-1.25" bright red 1.25-1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think the progressive nature of the NOGAPS causes the high to slip out east too soon. That fubars pretty much everything. stark difference between the Euro and NOGAPS is that the Euro moves that high north not east like the nogaps. I trust the euro way more than i do the nogaps... However..I am not even referencing the high pressure though it is related... What i am referencing is with the progressive bias of the NOGAPS & the position of the ECM (both at 12 Z runs)..You would expect to see the NOGAPS with its bias to the south and east ....However, you are not seeing that at all..Instead you are seeing a very progressive model further to the west... In this type of situation you want to see the Nogaps to the South and to the east-not to the west.. If you notice the NOGAPS was correct with the track of the event tonight and tomorrow from its medium range...it was always more N & W then the rest of the guidance. It has been working out that way practically all season long so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If it gets any lower than Dec 26, 2010 then we're talking about imaginary number territory Those features have to make it onshore before we really can tell what's going to happen with this, but I'm having a nice stroll down memory lane with PD2 because that was my biggest snowstorm, with 28 inches of snow here. I don't know anything about PD2. Do you have any info/links to info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 In my eyes the NOGAPS bias is causing less of the energy to be left behind in the SW, therefore a stronger and more well-defined phase occurs. I'm really not buying an inland solution at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z EURO QPF 120 HR valid 186 FR 6z jan 28 grey .25-.5 (didn't fill in all the way back thru OH) light blue .5-.75 purple .75-1" dark red 1"-1.25" bright red 1.25-1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 But that gives alot of snow to Central Pa so we already know its wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 However..I am not even referencing the high pressure though it is related... What i am referencing is with the progressive bias of the NOGAPS & the position of the ECM (both at 12 Z runs)..You would expect to see the NOGAPS with its bias to the south and east ....However, you are not seeing that at all..Instead you are seeing a very progressive model further to the west... In this type of situation you want to see the Nogaps to the South and to the east-not to the west.. If you notice the NOGAPS was correct with the track of the event tonight and tomorrow from its medium range...it was always more N & W then the rest of the guidance. It has been working out that way practically all season long so far... But you also have to remember that every storm setup is different. This can sometimes interact with the models general bias and produce something that you wouldn't ordinarily see. The good news from the NOGAPS is that a very progressive solution may not verify if the model is so far to the NW meaning we'll probably have some kind of storm near the area. Still, we won't know where the trough axis ends up, how the streams will interact, where the high pressure will be located and its strength. So all in all, it's a shot in a dark this far out even for the Euro model. Yet there's no denying the storm signal and that's all I would focus on at this point is that the models are strongly suggesting a stormy signal, but even the more general details are still too far out in the future to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 But that gives alot of snow to Central Pa so we already know its wrong Too early to say. Long way to go. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't know anything about PD2. Do you have any info/links to info? Hey Jason actually someone just posted this link a few pages back.. http://www.cbs6alban...identsStorm.htm I haven't looked at it yet... It's the Feb 15th - 17th, 2003 storm.. You can probably find a lot more articles on it by a google search I would imagine. I am looking at the info of that storm in the Northeast Snowstorms book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Anyone worried the Euro is just making its transition to a more suppressed storm like the GFS has, and this is kinda just the "Middle" ground between last night's warm storm and now its trending towards the GFS? Like by 00z it might be suppressed and out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Anyone worried the Euro is just making its transition to a more suppressed storm like the GFS has, and this is kinda just the "Middle" ground between last night's warm storm and now its trending towards the GFS? Like by 00z it might be suppressed and out to sea? way too far out to worry about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I hope this doesn't start out the same as PDII, I remember seeing the snow hit a brick wall below I 195, all the while my barometer kept rising as high pressure kept nosing into the area. It was tough going for awhile, but when the snow finally came it meant business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I hope this doesn't start out the same as PDII, I remember seeing the snow hit a brick wall below I 195, all the while my barometer kept rising as high pressure kept nosing into the area. It was tough going for awhile, but when the snow finally came it meant business. I remember that clearly in Reading, it was snowing on the south side of town for like 2 hours before it reached the north side, all in all it was still an amazing storm 26.9" of snow off of 1.22 " of qpf (22 to 1 snow ratios are always good) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO UPSTREAM RIDGE...AND EVENTUAL TROUGHING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THESE DIFFERENCES...LARGE SPREAD ON SFC LOW EVOLUTION...AND EVENTUAL TRACK BY MID WEEK. INITIAL ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH COLD AIR DAMMING LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF...AND MOVES NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME...A BLEND BETWEEN ECMWF AND OTHER GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS IS IN ORDER...AS ECMWF REMAINS THE DEEPEST AND CLOSEST TO THE COAST. ENSEMBLE MEANS/GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING GFS TRACK A WEAKER LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE BECAUSE OF REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE. WILL INCREASE POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR NOW BASED ON LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION. THE STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA WED AND WED NIGHT...WITH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Quite a few GGEM Ensemble members are showing a nice storm..some miss just to the E and there's one that's NOGAPS-esque. Huge timing differences though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think any storm that has that strong a high to the north is going to run into those issues. It's going to take forever for the precip to move north, but also takes longer to get out too usually. Initially the models had the high winning out and kept most of the precip much further south. I remember that clearly in Reading, it was snowing on the south side of town for like 2 hours before it reached the north side, all in all it was still an amazing storm 26.9" of snow off of 1.22 " of qpf (22 to 1 snow ratios are always good) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I can very skeptical of this Euro solution, while I do like the fact that it continues to show an east coast storm, the position of the high and lack of blocking make me think this solution is out to lunch. The position of the high on this run really isn't better than lasts night 0Z. Confidence is building for a major storm, I just wish there were more players on the field in our favor. It can be done, but we are going to have to rely on timing due to the hostile atlantic pattern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I can very skeptical of this Euro solution, while I do like the fact that it continues to show an east coast storm, the position of the high and lack of blocking make me think this solution is out to lunch. The position of the high on this run really isn't better than lasts night 0Z. Confidence is building for a major storm, I just wish there were more players on the field in our favor. It can be done, but we are going to have to rely on timing due to the hostile atlantic pattern.... I agree that we still have no real idea of what's going to happen, however today's run is more plausible than last night's especially considering last night's ensembles were indicating a track similar to what we saw today. Last night's OP was more likely out to lunch IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I agree that we still have no real idea of what's going to happen, however today's run is more plausible than last night's especially considering last night's ensembles were indicating a track similar to what we saw today. Last night's OP was more likely out to lunch IMO. Anyone see the Euro ensembles for 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I agree that we still have no real idea of what's going to happen, however today's run is more plausible than last night's especially considering last night's ensembles were indicating a track similar to what we saw today. Last night's OP was more likely out to lunch IMO. agree.... also, i wouldnt necessarily say as NorEaster pointed out, that the atlantic indicies arent there. an E based NAO is progged along with a developing 50/50 would hold the H in place. so we will have to wait and see......obv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Haven't had a chance to read every post in the thread so I apologize if this has already been touched on, but the NOGAPS is likely showing it's progressive bias not necessarily irt to the actual surface low, but probably progressing the HP out to quickly thus allowing the system to trudge North sooner thus the western position of the actual surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Anyone see the Euro ensembles for 12z? 1004 low just south of the benchmark at 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Haven't had a chance to read every post in the thread so I apologize if this has already been touched on, but the NOGAPS is likely showing it's progressive bias not necessarily irt to the actual surface low, but probably progressing the HP out to quickly thus allowing the system to trudge North sooner thus the western position of the actual surface low. It may also be too weak and progressive with the SE Coast and eventual 50/50 low as well when it develops in 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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