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The Psuhoffman Storm


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NAM is a miss with substantial precip it seems as its out to 84 on Raleigh's site, but looks like more would fall

sim/rad maps will confirm one way or the other once out on ncep

EDIT: and it sis rain east of the mts

Actually looks like a classic hit. Surface temps may be an issues, 850's at 0 just south of DC. Actually one of the better NAM hits if you ask me.

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Well, my own 2 cents here, I like where I stand right now as far as the NAM is concerned. I'll be looking forward to the 12Z GFS and 00Z NAM :popcorn:. Enjoy the rest of your day. And to finish things off a bit O/T here, but since the Ravens are out of it GO JETS Anybody but PITT :gun_bandana:

:lmao: Yeah, well regardless of what happens it's great that New England already got knocked out last weekend!!

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I'm not upset

I'm hoping it can hold, but with some minor tweaks like the addition of some cold air

but I do believe even BWI would turn to snow post 84 hrs

OK, agreed. Surface temps seem to be the major issue. That is one thing the models do screw up with some regularity. Bottom-line this will be a marginal wet snow even with better surface temps.

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This NAM run is fabulous. Not sure why anyone is upset by it.

In a way I agree. But my concern is that it's simply going to be too warm east of, say, the Blue Ridge, unless some cold air at and just above the surface can wrap in awfully quickly while the precip is falling. I can see wet snow falling at some point, but if it's 35 or so at the surface and just below freezing above there, I wonder how much it would really amount to. If I recall correctly from various previous posts yesterday, the idea of a front-end snow to rain to possibly snow is more or less gone...and we're hoping for enough cooling to change anything to snow after rain at the start?

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In a way I agree. But my concern is that it's simply going to be too warm east of, say, the Blue Ridge, unless some cold air at and just above the surface can wrap in awfully quickly while the precip is falling. I can see wet snow falling at some point, but if it's 35 or so at the surface and just below freezing above there, I wonder how much it would really amount to. If I recall correctly from various previous posts yesterday, the idea of a front-end snow to rain to possibly snow is more or less gone...and we're hoping for enough cooling to change anything to snow after rain at the start?

I think we are hoping the models are once again too warm at this range as they were with the last event and that dynamic cooling caused by heavy precip will take care of the marginal surface since the layers above are all cold enough. Bottom-line, there will be rain and a nasty cut-off line. Hope everyone is wearing their big-boy pants.

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Just occurred to me, but could this almost be similar to the Dec. 5 snow from last year? I know, the set-up and other aspects are not (necessarily) the same. But in that case, it started with fairly heavy rain in the morning that changed to heavy, wet snow. It was above freezing when the snow began and it only stuck to rooftops and grass, but it did finally start to accumulate pretty well once the boundary layer cooled sufficiently.

(EDIT: By "last year" on Dec. 5, I'm of course referring to last winter in 2009, not 2010!)

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Just occurred to me, but could this almost be similar to the Dec. 5 snow from last year? I know, the set-up and other aspects are not (necessarily) the same. But in that case, it started with fairly heavy rain in the morning that changed to heavy, wet snow. It was above freezing when the snow began and it only stuck to rooftops and grass, but it did finally start to accumulate pretty well once the boundary layer cooled sufficiently.

I checked out the skewts on Accuwx and BWI is near isothermal from 850 on down, with the surface looking to be around +1.5C and I thought of the same storm

of course, that only gave BWI officially an inch so I would not want a repeat...unless it was followed in 2 weeks with 18" ;)

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Still concerned about precip amounts over here, but maybe with a more juiced system, a little more potent, that will happen. Hopefully the GFS and EC can add some continuity.

Yeah QPF may be a problem for us. At least we should not have to worry so much about temps. Between last night Euro and this mornings NAM I think we are actually in the perfect location for once.

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I can remember many times in the past that it snowed quite heavily, and accumulated with temps well above the 32 degree mark, as high as 37/38 degrees in cent md for most of the event. I was in high school for one of those events, the forecast was for snow changing to rain, the snow started with the temp at 37 and it accumulated to 10 in , and never changed to rain. I was suirprised.

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I vote rain. Warm ground temps and late January sun angle with marginal temps. Dynamics can't do it alone here in poor setup situations. :whistle:

:lmao: warm ground after last nights 9 degrees?

If the nam solution does play out, I would say snow west of I-95. Thicknesses on the nam at 84 hours out are not accurate.

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This NAM run is fabulous. Not sure why anyone is upset by it.

It is on the warm side for people like dc. the surface temp is around 34 or 35 degrees taken literally and the layer just at or lightly above freezing extends around 4000 ft or so. That's a pretty dicey looking sounding. Guys to the north like you may do OK, same holds for back towards leesburg but many of th rest may have to wait for the latter half of the storm for the temps to fall enough to get accumulating snow and that's with a almost perfect snow track.

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