Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 come on north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I "think" that heavy snow area comes north over the next day, and possibly north of DCA/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 paging weathervswife please pic up th red courtesy phone in the lobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Congrats Richmond? 1.69 inch max looks to be right over it with plenty of cold air. Come back just the smidgenest of smidgens NW at 0z and we've got a deal for B/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 come on north trend there's a "cold" trend going, that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I "think" that heavy snow area comes north over the next day, and possibly north of DCA/BWI problem is the nam is further south than the euro at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow on the NAM...back to 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That is one sharp cuttoff to the northwest- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p60_060s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 problem is the nam is further south than the euro at least not quite sure what you mean because I've been working hard today, trying to catch up on the last wasted month but I'm thinking that climo kicks in and that closed Low comes further north bringing the snow from the u/l Low to us or even further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow on the NAM...back to 6z NAM Not as wet for the DC area though as it was at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM certainly is the coldest model here and I'd have trouble getting too excited over it...but if the GFS comes in as cold then it might be time to celebrate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobarzil Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 there's a "cold" trend going, that's for sure where is this cold air coming from? I don't see a high or a 50/50. tapped cold air to the north brough in by the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hopefully there isnt a trend south, I would take this verbatim for DC. Congrats Richmond though... wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 this is crazy? Better trends as we get closer to the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This NAM run rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 not quite sure what you mean because I've been working hard today, trying to catch up on the last wasted month but I'm thinking that climo kicks in and that closed Low comes further north bringing the snow from the u/l Low to us or even further north im saying the euro is further north with the 500 low. it's basically ideal now so if it trended north we might not be as happy as if the nam trended north. i think without an uber block there is not much reason to think it won't want to shift north slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This NAM run rocks. It does... this would be pretty much all heavy wet snow. 54 h7 omega is silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Man, that's looks great--- I'd like to see that explosive development a little more to my SW. Nice to see the NAM cooler and with a MEGA deformation zone. if we compare to the March 09== the ULL did drift north. 2 days out they models had the best lift down towards Greensboro and Winston Salem and they got 2-4 inches in reality while I got 10.5. If that second SW over the southwest isn't as strong, the ULL will trend more north-- and that's what what the NAM is finally showing. (Digs as deep, just moves NE rather than ENE.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM certainly is the coldest model here and I'd have trouble getting too excited over it...but if the GFS comes in as cold then it might be time to celebrate What is ironic is I always thought the NAM had a warm bias? I guess this year the Euro is the one with that label but I always thought the NAM tended to be too wet and too warm but I guess its highly variable on the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 problem is the nam is further south than the euro at least I would hedge against CHO and RIC getting the snow bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Huff, whats your elevation and what is the verical rise from 75 miles to your east? Very, very cool tool: http://www.heywhatsthat.com/profiler.html Click your two (or more) points on the map and click "draw profile" over on the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 im saying the euro is further north with the 500 low. it's basically ideal now so if it trended north we might not be as happy as if the nam trended north. i think without an uber block there is not much reason to think it won't want to shift north slightly. I agree-- but a NE motion is good depending where it starts from the south-- if we accept it digs as modeled through 24 hours, we should be in good shape. That SW over the 4 corners flattens the troff a little-- but if its not as impressive or washes out, it allows the sharpt nature and it turns NE. Closed 500 low moving from E GA to Off the Delaware BAY rocks for us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 54 0c at ric this is what falls afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 where is this cold air coming from? I don't see a high or a 50/50. tapped cold air to the north brough in by the storm? It's from the strong lifting and cold pool with the upper center and a track that provides northrely flow ehind the surface low which helps pulls what cold air is present over PA back south towards us. It's pretty consistent with itself but that doesn't mean it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 54 0c at ric this is what falls afterwards Wow verbatim that would be a 5+ inch snowfall from DC south through Central VA. Seems too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobarzil Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's from the strong lifting and cold pool with the upper center and a track that provides northrely flow ehind the surface low which helps pulls what cold air is present over PA back south towards us. It's pretty consistent with itself but that doesn't mean it's right. Thanks Wes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM certainly is the coldest model here and I'd have trouble getting too excited over it...but if the GFS comes in as cold then it might be time to celebrate 18z GFS will be Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I would hedge against CHO and RIC getting the snow bullseye. most yrs yeah. this is our coldest and snowiest time of the yr climowise. i think if at the beginning of the season someone said, here take these 500 maps in late Jan/early Feb and see what you can do, i'd take them up on it. -nao wants to filter cold air in even without a big surface high.. pressures are not super low to the north at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I would hedge against CHO and RIC getting the snow bullseye. It's not really fair to compare CHO to RIC-- they are worlds apart. Draw a line 70 miles SE of DCA and compare and add 3k mt rangs to your immediate west (20 miles to the Blue Ridge_ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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