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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji
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problem is the nam is further south than the euro at least

not quite sure what you mean because I've been working hard today, trying to catch up on the last wasted month

but I'm thinking that climo kicks in and that closed Low comes further north bringing the snow from the u/l Low to us or even further north

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not quite sure what you mean because I've been working hard today, trying to catch up on the last wasted month

but I'm thinking that climo kicks in and that closed Low comes further north bringing the snow from the u/l Low to us or even further north

im saying the euro is further north with the 500 low. it's basically ideal now so if it trended north we might not be as happy as if the nam trended north. i think without an uber block there is not much reason to think it won't want to shift north slightly.

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Man, that's looks great---

I'd like to see that explosive development a little more to my SW.

Nice to see the NAM cooler and with a MEGA deformation zone. if we compare to the March 09== the ULL did drift north. 2 days out they models had the best lift down towards Greensboro and Winston Salem and they got 2-4 inches in reality while I got 10.5.

If that second SW over the southwest isn't as strong, the ULL will trend more north-- and that's what what the NAM is finally showing. (Digs as deep, just moves NE rather than ENE.)

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NAM certainly is the coldest model here and I'd have trouble getting too excited over it...but if the GFS comes in as cold then it might be time to celebrate

What is ironic is I always thought the NAM had a warm bias? I guess this year the Euro is the one with that label but I always thought the NAM tended to be too wet and too warm but I guess its highly variable on the setup.

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im saying the euro is further north with the 500 low. it's basically ideal now so if it trended north we might not be as happy as if the nam trended north. i think without an uber block there is not much reason to think it won't want to shift north slightly.

I agree-- but a NE motion is good depending where it starts from the south-- if we accept it digs as modeled through 24 hours, we should be in good shape. That SW over the 4 corners flattens the troff a little-- but if its not as impressive or washes out, it allows the sharpt nature and it turns NE. Closed 500 low moving from E GA to Off the Delaware BAY rocks for us all.

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where is this cold air coming from? I don't see a high or a 50/50. tapped cold air to the north brough in by the storm?

It's from the strong lifting and cold pool with the upper center and a track that provides northrely flow ehind the surface low which helps pulls what cold air is present over PA back south towards us. It's pretty consistent with itself but that doesn't mean it's right.

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I would hedge against CHO and RIC getting the snow bullseye.

most yrs yeah. this is our coldest and snowiest time of the yr climowise. i think if at the beginning of the season someone said, here take these 500 maps in late Jan/early Feb and see what you can do, i'd take them up on it. -nao wants to filter cold air in even without a big surface high.. pressures are not super low to the north at least.

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