HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 wednesday's cold just got colder on the 0z nam sub 528 heights by 12z north of pike...........and sub 528 heights over E and SE mass/ CC by mid aftrnoon and windy ....just a cold winter type day setting up for us wednesday with coldest height anomaly's over cape cod per last several runs. hopefully wa wa will be cranking the guns wed morn....but i don't think it will get cool enough....possibly. By Weds night they will be making it again. Should be ok on 3 runs for Friday Looked good driving by this morning. Today and Tuesday won't help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 By Weds night they will be making it again. Should be ok on 3 runs for Friday Looked good driving by this morning. Today and Tuesday won't help the guns will be firing like mad wed nite but i hope friday doesn't trend warmer wetter otherwise they may push back to sat/ or sunday. i just hope temps don't yo yo that much in a few weeks or torch for sev days on end.........like to keep a decent snow cover over there. don't want to be shut out for a week or so at a time from late december on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 the guns will be firing like mad wed nite but i hope friday doesn't trend warmer wetter otherwise they may push back to sat/ or sunday. i just hope temps don't yo yo that much in a few weeks or torch for sev days on end.........like to keep a decent snow cover over there. don't want to be shut out for a week or so at a time from late december on Yeah, just read the update. Might not open Friday... it will be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Scott, here's an example of the torment. Early Nov, Alaska style. wow, that is beautiful. a beautiful beautiful thing. I, on the other hand just walked the dog in shorts and a t shirt and sandals. wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 But on the bright side BIG UPSLOPE weekend for the greens and powderfreak and jspin should have wood. It should be fun to see what happens with the upslope machine this weekend. So far the NWS isn’t saying too much about it in their discussion, they’re just mentioning the chance of a light accumulation with an emphasis on the Adirondacks: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 737 PM EST MON NOV 22 2010 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 216 PM EST MONDAY... FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND COOL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS. COULD SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION. Our NWS point and click does have our location down for snow showers consistently in the Friday through Sunday period though: Friday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%. With regard to the Greens and the surrounding mountain towns, it’s sometimes difficult to know if they are thinking “snow showers” snow showers, or “6 to 12 inches” of snow showers, but the BTV NWS guys are of course really good with the local topography and will eventually write about it if the upslope snowfall looks like it is going to be really significant. We’re lucky to have folks like Powderfreak, Roger Hill, and some of the other forecasters around as well, since they will start chatting about it a bit sooner if they see the upslope snowfall components coming together. On another note, our “Local on the Eights” graphics on the Weather Channel did have the straight up snow graphic (vs. just snow showers, rain/snow, etc.) for the first time that I can recall this season. On TWC through our cable we actually fall under the Montpelier forecast, which is several miles east of us and usually doesn’t get into the upslope snow as much as we do, so if there is Green Mountain upslope involved, our location will typically get at least as much snow as the Montpelier area, and likely more. We’ll see what Mother Nature decides to do, but it would be nice to get some of the November snowfall quota that has certainly played a part in totals around here for the higher end seasons of the past few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Give me the strength to make it through the torment of today........lol From BOX: AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE OUR FIRST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OF THE SEASON FOR PORTIONS OF NW MA AND SW NH. MAZ002-232115- WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN... SHELBURNE 415 AM EST TUE NOV 23 2010 .THANKSGIVING DAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING... THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. Sounds messy, but still good to see some flakes in the forecast even if they won't amount to anything. Meanwhile, gross: 45.9/45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Oh man... what I would give to slay that line, arcing powder turn after powder turn...picking up speed quickly as snow billows up into the chest with every turn. Soon enough. I still forget that I skied 2 feet of powder in mid-October up here. Its been so long that I've almost forgot we've already had some pretty great days. You should see what I'm getting w/r/t Little Cottonwood Canyon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It should be fun to see what happens with the upslope machine this weekend. So far the NWS isn’t saying too much about it in their discussion, they’re just mentioning the chance of a light accumulation with an emphasis on the Adirondacks: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 737 PM EST MON NOV 22 2010 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 216 PM EST MONDAY... FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND COOL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS. COULD SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION. Our NWS point and click does have our location down for snow showers consistently in the Friday through Sunday period though: Friday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%. With regard to the Greens and the surrounding mountain towns, it’s sometimes difficult to know if they are thinking “snow showers” snow showers, or “6 to 12 inches” of snow showers, but the BTV NWS guys are of course really good with the local topography and will eventually write about it if the upslope snowfall looks like it is going to be really significant. We’re lucky to have folks like Powderfreak, Roger Hill, and some of the other forecasters around as well, since they will start chatting about it a bit sooner if they see the upslope snowfall components coming together. On another note, our “Local on the Eights” graphics on the Weather Channel did have the straight up snow graphic (vs. just snow showers, rain/snow, etc.) for the first time that I can recall this season. On TWC through our cable we actually fall under the Montpelier forecast, which is several miles east of us and usually doesn’t get into the upslope snow as much as we do, so if there is Green Mountain upslope involved, our location will typically get at least as much snow as the Montpelier area, and likely more. We’ll see what Mother Nature decides to do, but it would be nice to get some of the November snowfall quota that has certainly played a part in totals around here for the higher end seasons of the past few. I'm sure others will chime in but I think on friday afternoon one of the key factors will be the strength of the wind coming off of Ontario. I think given the direction a decent streamer or moisture could move from Ontario into the Dacks in then Into the Greens. Wind looks a little weak right now but it has shown better in previous model runs. As for the traditional "Upslope snow" as far as I see the best chance is from later friday into later saturday as the surface low and 500mb low pull towards the east. Winds will be mostly w/nw and RH looks to be saturated from ground to around 850 which is enough for upslope. With pretty cold temps (I've seen -8 to -12 c in the associated region) you sure can get a decent punch of upslope. I'm not in the 6-12 boat however. More like 3-4 maybe 6 at the most ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm sure others will chime in but I think on friday afternoon one of the key factors will be the strength of the wind coming off of Ontario. I think given the direction a decent streamer or moisture could move from Ontario into the Dacks in then Into the Greens. Wind looks a little weak right now but it has shown better in previous model runs. As for the traditional "Upslope snow" as far as I see the best chance is from later friday into later saturday as the surface low and 500mb low pull towards the east. Winds will be mostly w/nw and RH looks to be saturated from ground to around 850 which is enough for upslope. With pretty cold temps (I've seen -8 to -12 c in the associated region) you sure can get a decent punch of upslope. I'm not in the 6-12 boat however. More like 3-4 maybe 6 at the most ... I'm right there with you... the GFS dream runs from a few days ago are gone. I'm honestly not expecting too much throughout this weekend, although flakes should be in the air off an on from later Friday into Sunday morning. If someone held a gun to my head I'd say 2-5" along the immediate spine (ski resorts) with an outside chance of 6" at the top of Mansfield or Jay. For the lower elevations, I'd say a dusting-2" from occasional snow showers. H85 wind flow is a little more westerly than I'd like for a larger upslope event... although it does present the wildcard of moisture from Ontario getting into the flow. If that occurs, there could be some isolated higher amounts. Overall the larger features aren't in the best of positions but guidance has been hinting at a good punch of H5 energy moving overhead on Saturday morning. In my experience H5 vorticity is a very good thing as it provides some mid level support to the lift already occurring in the lower levels. If the models are correct, there could be a period of more widespread snow shower activity late Friday night and Saturday morning. As ADK mentioned, H85 temps are quite chilly and right in the wheelhouse for good dendrite snow growth. I've found the best upslope ratios happen with H85 temps near -12C and we'll be between -9C and -12C. With a little assist from mid-level lift we should see the best upward vertical motion punch into that favorable dendritic zone. Overall though... not looking as favorable as a few days ago but we should at least get the snow showers back in the air and they should be persistent enough to accumulate up on the ski resorts, and maybe even spill down into neighboring towns. My concern with places below 1,000ft isn't temperatures but dry air. It looks like we may advect some dry air into the boundary layer on Friday night... this is why I'd really like to see all the features with this system a bit farther east and wrapped up so it can drag some more moist Maritime air in from the east, as opposed to advecting drier continental stuff in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 You should see what I'm getting w/r/t Little Cottonwood Canyon. Are you out there!? I've been loosely following it but man have they been getting pounded over the past week. Alta's already at 108" on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 With regard to the Greens and the surrounding mountain towns, it’s sometimes difficult to know if they are thinking “snow showers” snow showers, or “6 to 12 inches” of snow showers, but the BTV NWS guys are of course really good with the local topography and will eventually write about it if the upslope snowfall looks like it is going to be really significant. Haha... yeah the "snow showers" forecast is always interesting around these parts. Growing up I always used to hate when they'd say Snow Showers because when I was living in the Hudson Valley that forecast always just meant some passing flurries...maybe a coating if you are lucky. Same went with the Champlain Valley although there was the chance that snow showers could add up to an inch or two. But once I moved into the upslope region, snow showers can literally mean anything from a passing flurry to 10" of fluff. I love being up at the ski area and explaining to people that we got 12-16" from snow showers and they look at you like you have 3 heads. "Isn't that a blizzard and not just snow showers?" Well, no, because it is showery in nature (not continuous snow) and you can get 1-3" in an hour then see nothing for another hour and then pick up another couple inches in squalls the next hour, etc. This is also the only place I've ever lived where you can be under a Winter Storm Warning for "Snow Showers" and love when the Mansfield forecast reads.... "Today: Snow Showers. Chance of snow 90%. New snow accumulation 5-9". Most people do not associate snow showers with significant accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Haha... yeah the "snow showers" forecast is always interesting around these parts. Growing up I always used to hate when they'd say Snow Showers because when I was living in the Hudson Valley that forecast always just meant some passing flurries...maybe a coating if you are lucky. Same went with the Champlain Valley although there was the chance that snow showers could add up to an inch or two. But once I moved into the upslope region, snow showers can literally mean anything from a passing flurry to 10" of fluff. I love being up at the ski area and explaining to people that we got 12-16" from snow showers and they look at you like you have 3 heads. "Isn't that a blizzard and not just snow showers?" Well, no, because it is showery in nature (not continuous snow) and you can get 1-3" in an hour then see nothing for another hour and then pick up another couple inches in squalls the next hour, etc. This is also the only place I've ever lived where you can be under a Winter Storm Warning for "Snow Showers" and love when the Mansfield forecast reads.... "Today: Snow Showers. Chance of snow 90%. New snow accumulation 5-9". Most people do not associate snow showers with significant accumulations. When they are continuous for a few days it does not take long for it to add up, In the winter when i ride up in the NW mtns i usually wake up to 2-3" of snow that fell overnight in upslope conditions, You know, Thats how a lot of mtn towns get most of there snows anyways people that don't venture to the mtns or ski don't get to experiance it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 The 00z NAM has some sleet/ZR issues in the interior for several hours at the onset. It will be interesting to see if it trends colder or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 will also after the friday event. FYI 18z and 0z nam has trended further S with the "bowling ball" feature Basically it's a big difference with heights BC now sub 5160 DM heights are found N of Route 2/ mass pike also -12c 850's just N of mass border. COLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 will also after the friday event. FYI 18z and 0z nam has trended further S with the "bowling ball" feature Basically it's a big difference with heights BC now sub 5160 DM heights are found N of Route 2/ mass pike also -12c 850's just N of mass border. COLD Yeah Saturday is gonna be very cold. Might see highs around freezing if the NAM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I posted in my NNE thread but up here everyone goes to bed before 9am(you know got to get up early and milk the cows and feed the chickens) so probably no one read it. 0Z NAM gives me over .50" QPF It keeps me (Plymouth NH area) below freezing at the surface for the entire event. Although there is some warm air aloft it seems it ends as snowas the whole column falls below freezing with about .25" left. So sleet maybe to start, then ice and finishing as a couple of inches of snow if I am looking at the data correctly. Looks like advisory event at least up here. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I posted in my NNE thread but up here everyone goes to bed before 9am(you know got to get up early and milk the cows and feed the chickens) so probably no one read it. 0Z NAM gives me over .50" QPF It keeps me (Plymouth NH area) below freezing at the surface for the entire event. Although there is some warm air aloft it seems it ends as snowas the whole column falls below freezing with about .25" left. So sleet maybe to start, then ice and finishing as a couple of inches of snow if I am looking at the data correctly. Looks like advisory event at least up here. Thoughts? If the NAM is right, then yeah, you would get almost all frozen. It redevelops the sfc low over LI and tracks it over SE MA keeping it cold in the interior. It also far enough S with the upper level energy that the mid-levels redevelop quick enough for some snow up in NH and especially ME at the end. The whole caveat though are the first 5 words of this post....if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 If the NAM is right, then yeah, you would get almost all frozen. It redevelops the sfc low over LI and tracks it over SE MA keeping it cold in the interior. It also far enough S with the upper level energy that the mid-levels redevelop quick enough for some snow up in NH and especially ME at the end. The whole caveat though are the first 5 words of this post....if the NAM is right. What an interesting system. the 0c 850 line make it all the way until my Maine doorstep and within hours its almost -10c aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 well said ....keep weenies in check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 If the NAM is right, then yeah, you would get almost all frozen. It redevelops the sfc low over LI and tracks it over SE MA keeping it cold in the interior. It also far enough S with the upper level energy that the mid-levels redevelop quick enough for some snow up in NH and especially ME at the end. The whole caveat though are the first 5 words of this post....if the NAM is right. I wouldn't be shocked if some of those east slope high terrain locations from AFN through Sunapee etc have a decent ice event on Friday. It's not an arctic airmass, but some nice ene flow banking up against the high country there should help cool the lower levels just a bit more. It probably goes to a 34 rain type thing at the end, but looks like another elevation type event again? That area has been pegged for a while as a potential. I suppose it could extend into nrn orh county too. Even the euro has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 What an interesting system. the 0c 850 line make it all the way until my Maine doorstep and within hours its almost -10c aloft. Frzrn here me would think....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I wouldn't be shocked if some of those east slope high terrain locations from AFN through Sunapee etc have a decent ice event on Friday. It's not an arctic airmass, but some nice ene flow banking up against the high country there should help cool the lower levels just a bit more. It probably goes to a 34 rain type thing at the end, but looks like another elevation type event again? That area has been pegged for a while as a potential. I suppose it could extend into nrn orh county too. Even the euro has it. Yeah I wouldn't be shocked either. Friday could actually end up as a pretty darn cold day in the interior with temps never getting out of the 30s...even if there isn't a ton of frozen precip. The sfc low may end up tracking over SE MA or CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 It was hard to believe it wouldn't redevelop a new low on the coast given the magnitude of that block. If the NAM is right, then yeah, you would get almost all frozen. It redevelops the sfc low over LI and tracks it over SE MA keeping it cold in the interior. It also far enough S with the upper level energy that the mid-levels redevelop quick enough for some snow up in NH and especially ME at the end. The whole caveat though are the first 5 words of this post....if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Winds aloft crank out of the S then an artic push from the WNW as the system churns. Saves the interior by the skin of its teeth. CP's out of the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Frzrn here me would think....... On this run it appears that way. Possibly a slight mix for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Winds aloft crank out of the S then an artic push from the WNW as the system churns. Saves the interior by the skin of its teeth. CP's out of the mix. 00Z GFS is warmer aloft with the system, Low tracks thru the midcoast of ME..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 00Z GFS is warmer aloft with the system, Low tracks thru the midcoast of ME..... Its not surprising considering the massive difference with the upper level low in the lakes. The GFS is about 200-300 miles further north with it than the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Looks like there would be some upslope snows on the backside in the dacks, greens and white's as well as lake effect out towards Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Its not surprising considering the massive difference with the upper level low in the lakes. The GFS is about 200-300 miles further north with it than the 00z NAM. Yeah it just wants to track across the border over northern ME, Instead of dropping down into the mid section to pop a secondary further south close call for all up here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 not looking as favorable on the GFS..for friday interior ice or weekend deep cold....bowling ball to far north......north of 18z .....well north of 0z nam. crappola likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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