Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Welcome aboard the ship You and others have been ruling out any wintry precip in SNE at all. which is very very unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 You and others have been ruling out any wintry precip in SNE at all. which is very very unlikely WTF? I have not, in fact I've stated several times I think we could start off as some frozen precip but we will quickly changeover to rain. I've been saying this for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Any frozen precip will have larger than normal implications due to the holiday, which is why I'm keeping close tabs on it. Yeah, especially up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Yeah, especially south of NH border. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Of course some people could start off as frozen, but there's no way it'll last long. Here's the 2m chart from the 6z GFS at 90hrs....note the raging easterly winds that are starting to warm up the region: That doesn't look like a snow set-up to me in late November. Who besides someone who pulls stockings up to their chin would analyze a day 4-5 threat off of the 6z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Actually looks like the GFS keeps the wind direction better...not as easterly as early runs. Was looking at the wrong map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Who besides someone who pulls stockings up to their chin would analyze a day 4-5 threat off of the 6z GFS? The first piece of energy that ejects would be too warm due to SE winds, but that's the Tuesday/Wednesday storm. I am getting a bit confused with all these shortwaves. Still looks like the next storm is a cutter though. It starts off with a favorable wind pattern but then gets nasty as the precip moves in...it does look as if there's a longer period of W winds to cool down the surface and lower dewpoints, but then it starts to turn the flow SE. Here is the map I was looking for: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 GFS has a very cold Wednesday before Thanksgiving on the 12z run. Maybe highs in the mid 30s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Actually looks like the GFS keeps the wind direction better...not as easterly as early runs. my high socks distorted my vision socks distorted visibility.....common occurence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 GFS has a very cold Wednesday before Thanksgiving on the 12z run. Maybe highs in the mid 30s? The plot thickens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 GFS has a very cold Wednesday before Thanksgiving on the 12z run. Maybe highs in the mid 30s? I'll take any cold, even if does not produce snow...yet My friends at the local hill can work their magic with the snowmaking equipment until Ullr can assist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 socks distorted visibility.....common occurence No, the wind goes SE later on...I just posted the wrong map. There is a good period of westerly flow prior to the storm that cools and dries off the airmass in SNE. It gets crappy around 120/126 on the 6z GFS with a miserable maritime flow and 850s rapidly warming. Would be way too mild for any prolonged snow/ice threat dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 It seems like we have come full circle here to where the models were several days ago. They kept pushing back the arrival of any cold and now we find that it actually gets colder faster after all. -10C 850 here on Wednesday is respectable cold for November. Lets hope we can hold onto enough for some frozen. GFS has a very cold Wednesday before Thanksgiving on the 12z run. Maybe highs in the mid 30s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The plot thickens The block is just clogging things up int he flow. Thanksgiving might be totally dry. Euro last night didn't even have anything until Thursday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 No I know..I didn't mean you. I don't think we see all frozen..but a few hours of snow/sleet/ice is very possible and in some places in Norhtern Mass/SW NH it might stay all frozen while I sit at 35 and rain after some ice Finally, you've taken a dose of reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The plot thickens So does the layer between 1000-500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 It seems like we have come full circle here to where the models were several days ago. They kept pushing back the arrival of any cold and now we find that it actually gets colder faster after all. -10C 850 here on Wednesday is respectable cold for November. Lets hope we can hold onto enough for some frozen. The 6z GFS didn't get nearly that cold in your area...looks more like -6/-7C and just for one day. Would be a chilly day Wednesday, however, under a stiff W flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 OES wed nite? shot in dark ya the colder trend for wednesday started yesterday....when the martimime lp became more of a prominent feature....and was turne up a notch now looks darn cold wednesday now. not that that means anything for late thurs /fri but this is an interesting pattern and i don't trust anything i see further out then wednesday at this point. no matter wether the gfs takes a coastal bomb over the bm. rev kev can put another weenie in his cap with a cold trending wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The block is just clogging things up int he flow. Thanksgiving might be totally dry. Euro last night didn't even have anything until Thursday evening. Why do you think we're getting these 5SD blocks in a strong Niña? Do you think the solar stuff is having an effect and will keep the AO/NAO negative this winter? It seems like we've had near constant blocking since Summer 2008.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Eventually the storm makes its push Friday morning....2m temps are pretty cold though over the interior. Could start as some icing. Otherwise everyone goes to rain eventually. With the block in place as it is, a dry Thanksgiving might be the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The block is just clogging things up int he flow. Thanksgiving might be totally dry. Euro last night didn't even have anything until Thursday evening. SO maybe now we snow/ice Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 So does the layer between 1000-500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 SO maybe now we sandbag Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Eventually the storm makes its push Friday morning....2m temps are pretty cold though over the interior. Could start as some icing. Otherwise everyone goes to rain eventually. With the block in place as it is, a dry Thanksgiving might be the way to go. Have you read my thread title lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Pretty much no change. Starts as some sn or ip over the interior and goes to rain. Looks like we stay mostly dry perhaps on T-Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Torch. Its actually near freezing over the interior on that map at 12z...enough ageostrophic northerly tug with the bagginess southeast of the primary. But eventually even the interior would warm up for a time before the cold front moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Where I'll be: http://www.caboweather.com/ Yoyo. Flew in from SFO arriving in the middle of last night and heading out on the 6:30AM flight in the same general direction tomorrow morning. All meaningful snow will wait for my return which will be around midnight 11/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 SO maybe now we snow/ice Friday Looks like an all out intergalacticplanetary mega torchathon next week, big time + montly departures by next wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Torch. PHAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.