free_man Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 00z UK has a fooking bomb Fri Night/Saturday. Wow. Probably a major snowstorm for far interior and especially NH/ME. That's interesting because it's usually more reserved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Specifics to be determined, but if the ensembles are right, we got some chances in the 1st week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 So has the GFS taken the Euro behind the woodshed with this? I hear the good reverend calling us from the edge. Little by little, we inch back.... Still not expecting much of anything here, but seeing the hit in the cards for ME/NH is reason enough to smile. Who knows--maybe can eek out a couple here in Mass. 27.1/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Specifics to be determined, but if the ensembles are right, we got some chances in the 1st week of December. Yeah the ensembles seemed pretty encouraging, keeps us just slightly below normal which is definitely good enough for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Specifics to be determined, but if the ensembles are right, we got some chances in the 1st week of December. Which ensembles , gfs or Euro? I've seen the gfs ensembles, some very eyebrow raising solutions. not sure about individual euro members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Which ensembles , gfs or Euro? I've seen the gfs ensembles, some very eyebrow raising solutions. not sure about individual euro members. Both looked pretty favorable,but that's about all you can really say. I wouldn't be shocked if a one or two of the potential storms turns into an inside runner, but we just don't know this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Both looked pretty favorable,but that's about all you can really say. I wouldn't be shocked if a one or two of the potential storms turns into an inside runner, but we just don't know this far out. I'd take the inside runner with cold air around and blocking downstream. (assuming it hasn't completely broken down by then) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I'd take the inside runner with cold air around and blocking downstream. (assuming it hasn't completely broken down by then) The block is large and in charge, but two things somewhat concern me. 1) Intensity of the west based block. We don't want it to be like last year where it's so far west and intense, all the cold is pushed into western Canada and the Plains. On the plus side, it also might be able to wrap back colder air underneath the block as s/w's amplify as they approach the east coast. It is possible to have too much of a good thing, and we are very early in the season. 2) GOA low heights. This may act to flex the se ridge from time to time, and cause storms to try and make a run for the OH valley. I will say having lots of s/w's moving into the US thanks to the GOA low, move under a massive nao block will increase storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 00z UK has a fooking bomb Fri Night/Saturday. Wow. Probably a major snowstorm for far interior and especially NH/ME. A nice way to kick start another day of model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well well well ladies...Rev Kev FTW for a white holiday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well well well ladies...Rev Kev FTW for a white holiday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well well well ladies...Rev Kev FTW for a white holiday?? Sure,if you're having Thanksgiving in Caribou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Ryan, Kev and wiz. lol Alot more fun than those that don't post all summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Sure,if you're having Thanksgiving in Caribou. Euro is wintry mix for all of interior SNE..and has trended colder with the storm as we thought and told Bob the other day.. you ain't cutting a storm into that block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Sure,if you're having Thanksgiving in Caribou. yeah not sure i understand that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Euro is wintry mix for all of interior SNE..and has trended colder with the storm as we thought and told Bob the other day.. you ain't cutting a storm into that block the 00z??? no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well well well ladies...Rev Kev FTW for a white holiday?? Which holiday? j/k Looking good, as we thought. The chair tipping yesterday was good theater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Yup THIS WOULD PLACE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDING NORTH INTO QUEBEC. BASED ON THIS...DECIDED TO START THANKSGIVING DRY AND BRING IN PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE FORECAST. IF IT COMES IN MUCH LATER...COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET OR EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN. WITH THE UNCERTAIN TIMING...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST SIMPLE FOR NOW AND JUST MENTION EITHER RAIN AND/OR SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 i will say not surprising to see the euro not blasting the furnace now in the long term. disgustingly strong NAO doing it's dirty work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Euro is wintry mix for all of interior SNE..and has trended colder with the storm as we thought and told Bob the other day.. you ain't cutting a storm into that block It's warm, it may start as a brief mix in sne, but goes over to rain. I'll give it a shot to come a little south, but I think it's mostly down the drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The block is large and in charge, but two things somewhat concern me. 1) Intensity of the west based block. We don't want it to be like last year where it's so far west and intense, all the cold is pushed into western Canada and the Plains. On the plus side, it also might be able to wrap back colder air underneath the block as s/w's amplify as they approach the east coast. It is possible to have too much of a good thing, and we are very early in the season. 2) GOA low heights. This may act to flex the se ridge from time to time, and cause storms to try and make a run for the OH valley. I will say having lots of s/w's moving into the US thanks to the GOA low, move under a massive nao block will increase storm chances. Good points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Yup THIS WOULD PLACE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDING NORTH INTO QUEBEC. BASED ON THIS...DECIDED TO START THANKSGIVING DRY AND BRING IN PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE FORECAST. IF IT COMES IN MUCH LATER...COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET OR EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN. WITH THE UNCERTAIN TIMING...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST SIMPLE FOR NOW AND JUST MENTION EITHER RAIN AND/OR SNOW. That is a ? at best, I highly doubt anyone south of VT/NH/ME sees much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Yup THIS WOULD PLACE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDING NORTH INTO QUEBEC. BASED ON THIS...DECIDED TO START THANKSGIVING DRY AND BRING IN PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE FORECAST. IF IT COMES IN MUCH LATER...COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET OR EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN. WITH THE UNCERTAIN TIMING...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST SIMPLE FOR NOW AND JUST MENTION EITHER RAIN AND/OR SNOW. honestly, i don't think a whole lot has changed with respect to the tday storm. looks marginal at the onset for some mixed frozen stuff, better the further NE you go, and then we warm pretty significantly for a time in the low and mid levels. it'll have to shift around quite a bit for a more entertaining solution. still some time for that i suppose, but right now, i'd say prepare for mainly water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 That is a ? at best, I highly doubt anyone south of VT/NH/ME sees much snow. I'm not saying SNE sees alot of snow..but I think there's room for this to continue to trend colder..don't think it's done yet. It won't surprise me in the least if this turns into an ice event for some spots in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 i will say not surprising to see the euro not blasting the furnace now in the long term. disgustingly strong NAO doing it's dirty work. this is probably the coldest run of the ec we've seen here in new england thus far in the last week or so. it's consistently BN post turkey day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 this is probably the coldest run of the ec we've seen here in new england thus far in the last week or so. it's consistently BN post turkey day. All helped by the storm locked to our NE over the maritimes, which wasn't there on any runs until last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 All helped by the storm locked to our NE over the maritimes, which wasn't there on any runs until last night. yeah check this out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 this is probably the coldest run of the ec we've seen here in new england thus far in the last week or so. it's consistently BN post turkey day. I'd give anything to pop a ridge out west and kick some of that arctic air eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 yeah check this out: "We're gonna need a bigger chart" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I'm in a much better mood after finally getting the Euro op on board. Those last 3 runs had me a little concerned out colder type pattern was gonna vanish faster than a jar of Wiz's vaseline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.