CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 yeah check this out: Sick. Flashback to last winter. -4 to -5 SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I'd give anything to pop a ridge out west and kick some of that arctic air eastward. yeah would be nice to really tap some of that truly frigid air. but i'll take 850s of -2 to -8 over +3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Sick. Flashback to last winter. -4 to -5 SD. yeah they are tanking...and ahead of the mean forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I'm in a much better mood after finally getting the Euro op on board. Those last 3 runs had me a little concerned out colder type pattern was gonna vanish faster than a jar of Wiz's vaseline At best we will have a shot of frozen precip at the onset of this thing but that's about it. The only areas that may end up cashing in here are in extreme Northern New England. No reason to be concerned about the cold post-Thanksgiving, the signal has been there all along for it to happen and the signal is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 At best we will have a shot of frozen precip at the onset of this thing but that's about it. The only areas that may end up cashing in here are in extreme Northern New England. No reason to be concerned about the cold post-Thanksgiving, the signal has been there all along for it to happen and the signal is still there. There's plenty of reason to think the holiday storm is partially or all frozen in some areas of SNE. It ain't done trending colder as we thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Euro is wintry mix for all of interior SNE..and has trended colder with the storm as we thought and told Bob the other day.. you ain't cutting a storm into that block Thank you for the early morning laugh. Enjoy your 34F and rain on T-Day. You will not see any significant icing, sleet, or snow. 80-90% of the storm will be rain for you. Mangled flakes are not a win, nor is 1/2" of snow. Start looking for the first week of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Kevin was just taking to confession by Scott and Phil. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 There's plenty of reason to think the holiday storm is partially or all frozen in some areas of SNE. It ain't done trending colder as we thought While it may have looked like the 0z GFS trended colder if you take a look at 925mb temps there is no way most of SNE would stay all frozen. Maybe Scott can see what the Euro has for 925mb temps but I'd bet they are too warm for us to see prolonged frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Sick. Flashback to last winter. -4 to -5 SD. If only that could last the entire winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 While it may have looked like the 0z GFS trended colder if you take a look at 925mb temps there is no way most of SNE would stay all frozen. Maybe Scott can see what the Euro has for 925mb temps but I'd bet they are too warm for us to see prolonged frozen. The thing to look for here is has the euro gotten colder. the answer is yes it has..look for that to continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 While it may have looked like the 0z GFS trended colder if you take a look at 925mb temps there is no way most of SNE would stay all frozen. Maybe Scott can see what the Euro has for 925mb temps but I'd bet they are too warm for us to see prolonged frozen. If you take the euro solution verbatim, the only place to see some frozen in sne would be nrn orh county, down through the east slopes of the berks. Southerly flow out ahead of the low will warm ct pretty quickly. It won't be 60, it would warm pretty quickly above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 If you take the euro solution verbatim, the only place to see some frozen in sne would be nrn orh county, down through the east slopes of the berks. Southerly flow out ahead of the low will warm ct pretty quickly. It won't be 60, it would warm pretty quickly above freezing. Read it and weep, Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I'm not saying SNE sees alot of snow..but I think there's room for this to continue to trend colder..don't think it's done yet. It won't surprise me in the least if this turns into an ice event for some spots in SNE Box's forecast for the East slope now has delayed the onset of precip and has removed rain from the r/sThursday night forecast and replaced it simply with Snow. with a high in the 30's T-day and 25 Thanksgiving night. Beyond T-day it looks like temps will struggle to break the freezing mark. Those of little faith shall be struck down should they not repent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 If you take the euro solution verbatim, the only place to see some frozen in sne would be nrn orh county, down through the east slopes of the berks. Southerly flow out ahead of the low will warm ct pretty quickly. It won't be 60, it would warm pretty quickly above freezing. but small features like weak secondary's or a low along a triple point near block island....won't show up on the euro yet right? so the flow could actually be more backed in from the NNE over interior mass and (west of orh, and from about tolland west) correct? and int this set up are actually likely . in fact that is what i get from reading one of the met's blogs here i believe. so the weenie bashers take your BP. rev kev it's ez just believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Thank you for the early morning laugh. Enjoy your 34F and rain on T-Day. You will not see any significant icing, sleet, or snow. 80-90% of the storm will be rain for you. Mangled flakes are not a win, nor is 1/2" of snow. Start looking for the first week of Dec. Typical defeatist attitude of a Coastal Plainer. Repent while you still can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Read it and weep, Kevin. Just like 98% of your severe wx forecasts this will likely bust too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Those of little weenie shall be struck down should they not repent. best of luck wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 best of luck wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Good to see at least a bit of a chill in the euro We will send pics of turkey day sleet pellets to those non believers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 best of luck wiz LOL, I know it'll be tough for you to watch the snow pile up out here but you can always take a road trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 but small features like weak secondary's or a low along a triple point near block island....won't show up on the euro yet right? so the flow could actually be more backed in from the NNE over interior mass and (west of orh, and from about tolland west) correct? in fact that is what i get from reading one of the met's blogs here i believe. rev kev it's ez just believe That's correct, but it looks like any weak secondary would probably cut near eastern ct up through eastern ma. I'm just taking this run verbatim. However, it's early in the season, and it's not a polar airmass that thhe low is running into, so I think you'd have to be significantly away from the center of low pressure to see frozen. I will say that there is a small chance it could end up further south, but all that might do is allow for a few more hours of frozen, before a flip to rain. It would take a big adjustment to get most of interior sne, to have significant frozen imo. I'd move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Good to see at least a bit of a chill in the euro We will send pics of turkey day sleet pellets to those non believers I'm sending a pic of you to mainejayhawk. You have been enjoying his photoshop creations of Kev and I just a little too much. Better hope you're not depicted as an Altar boy. The Rev has a 'special' training regiment for the more innocent in the flock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 That's correct, but it looks like any weak secondary would probably cut near eastern ct up through eastern ma. I'm just taking this run verbatim. However, it's early in the season, and it's not a polar airmass that thhe low is running into, so I think you'd have to be significantly away from the center of low pressure to see frozen. I will say that there is a small chance it could end up further south, but all that might do is allow for a few more hours of frozen, before a flip to rain. It would take a big adjustment to get most of interior sne, to have significant frozen imo. I'd move on. Plus the fact that the coldest of the air doesn't move in until after the fact the system has departed isn't good either. The airmass that will be in place out ahead of the system isn't all that cold and while they weren't exactly cold when we had the light snow a few weeks ago we at least were aided by dynamics and evap. cooling, both of which will probably be non factors here. Given the flow probably out ahead of the low we will see a good deal of low-level warmth being advected into the region, while it may be cold enough at 850mb below that is where the warmth will exist. I think some of us here will see frozen to begin but that's about it, then we flip to rain. The real excitement should exist in the first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 LOL, I know it'll be tough for you to watch the snow pile up out here but you can always take a road trip. yes you and mike are positioned best for this one. i've got friday off so i could join you for sermon on the 2k mount. i'll tell story's of things regarding to civilization then we could round up your goats for some "fun" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 yes you and mike are positioned best for this one. i've got friday off so i could join you for sermon on the 2k mount. i'll tell story's of things regarding to civilization then we could round up your goats for some "fun" The images percolating up from the depths of your imagination are becoming increasingly disturbing. Do you have a wife/GF? You should look into this as a way to alleviate such perverse proclivities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I'm sending a pic of you to mainejayhawk. You have been enjoying his photoshop creations of Kev and I just a little too much. Better hope you're not depicted as an Altar boy. The Rev has a 'special' training regiment for the more innocent in the flock. You are a cruel and bitter Cardinal Hey, I just rediscovered the joy of cleaning up frozen dog poop! These poopsicles are much easier to hurl into the woods. 26.4F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The images percolating up from the depths of your imagination are becoming increasingly disturbing. Do you have a wife/GF? You should look into this as a way to alleviate such perverse proclivities. rev kev has already offered a helping hand it is good to see those snow guns going at wachusett . and yes MRG i know its not alyeska (Sp?) but it is 35 minutes from me and a great place i can go 2-3 times a week. so i'm pumped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Kevin and I are in mid-season shape. Going to be a looooong winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 You are a cruel and bitter Cardinal Hey, I just rediscovered the joy of cleaning up frozen dog poop! These poopsicles are much easier to hurl into the woods. 26.4F I just coughed up a little oat meal. Just disgusting, If you lodge any complaints about Kevin I will simply move him to a different parish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 rev kev has already offered a helping hand it is good to see those snow guns going at wachusett . and yes MRG i know its not alyeska (Sp?) but it is 35 minutes from me and a great place i can go 2-3 times a week. so i'm pumped Where's the mountain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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