Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 what about the tanking AO last year.....it was awful. im no Tip, but i was going to say a few days ago 'i don't like it when things get TOO extreme with these indices'.....proceed with caution Actually was terrible for you not bad for me. Perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 How's the timing at 132 compared to the GFS/Ukie? I think the GFS is already up to downeast ME with the sfc low while the Ukie is over SE MA. Euro is quicker...looks like the ukie 132h at 120h on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Yep, like 12/16/07...primary ripping up W of BUF but secondary goes over PYM. Exactly what I had in mind....it very well maybe tainted in the end, but this event embodies why I am optimistic for mby this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The euro cooled off big time over the last day or so after D8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Classic Nina.....that does the trick in 2-3 weeks with a decent antecedent airmass. Uh?, we saw lots of these last year in a Nino,. Your insistence of correlating everything with ENSO confuses me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Uh?, we saw lots of these last year in a Nino,. Your insistence of correlating everything with ENSO confuses me. No we didn't...lakes cutters that redeveloped a secondary that tracked to our SE? I don't recall many of those last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Yep, like 12/16/07...primary ripping up W of BUF but secondary goes over PYM. 12/9/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Yep, like 12/16/07...primary ripping up W of BUF but secondary goes over PYM. Uh?, we saw lots of these last year in a Nino,. Your insistence of correlating everything with ENSO confuses me. Yea, Will needs to stop being so sonfusing and learn his shat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Lol, Ray's post got deleted...family forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 No we didn't...lakes cutters that redeveloped a secondary that tracked to our SE? I don't recall many of those last winter. Lots would be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 12/9/9 Who said that SW flow events are impossible in Ninos.....they can happen in any season, but they are much more prevalent in Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The euro cooled off big time over the last day or so after D8. Developing a nice coastal towards the end of the run.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Who said that SW fow events are impossible in Ninos.....they can happen in any season, but they are much more prevalent in Ninas. Indeed....12/9/09 was actually a decent replica of 12/16/07 for us (a little warmer), but that was basically the only storm last year that remotely reminded me of a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Lots would be wrong. Steve, I luv ya, but you some of your posts are just downright bizarre and incoherent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Yea, Will needs to stop being so sonfusing Yea I agree LOL, after all after Will nobody on this forum knows more about Climo than you, well at least that's what you said last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Steve, I luv ya, but you some of your posts are just downright bizarre and incoherent. 12/9/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Indeed....12/9/09 was actually a decent replica of 12/16/07 for us (a little warmer), but that was basically the only storm last year that remotely reminded me of a Nina. Geee, 12\23\97 rocked; lets hope for another +4.4 trimonthly!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Nice secondary development on the Euro at the end of the run. Enough of that 50/50 low retrogrades into the Great Lakes to cause a slight phase with the southern shortwave. verbatum it's not snow for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Nice secondary development on the Euro at the end of the run. Enough of that 50/50 low retrogrades into the Great Lakes to cause a slight phase with the southern shortwave. verbatum it's not snow for SNE. That soloution blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Indeed....12/9/09 was actually a decent replica of 12/16/07 for us (a little warmer), but that was basically the only storm last year that remotely reminded me of a Nina. Misspoke, someday you will have to show me the research that shows the number of miller b storms are more prevalent in Nina years. Is it possible that NAO state and blocking are the real driver of b s rather than the ENSO state, one could argue that 12/19 primary died in the middle states and the new center formed off of SC , a far south b. Just asking a bizarre question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Nice secondary development on the Euro at the end of the run. Enough of that 50/50 low retrogrades into the Great Lakes to cause a slight phase with the southern shortwave. verbatum it's not snow for SNE. But it would be here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Who said that SW flow events are impossible in Ninos.....they can happen in any season, but they are much more prevalent in Ninas. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Should have some snow on the ground here by week's end. The year of the sneaky low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Misspoke, someday you will have to show me the research that shows the number of miller b storms are more prevalent in Nina years. Is it possible that NAO state and blocking are the real driver of b s rather than the ENSO state, one could argue that 12/19 primary died in the middle states and the new center formed off of SC , a far south b. Just asking a bizarre question. We said swfes, not Miller Bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Link? Okay, you're doing this on purpose. I'm hittn' the treadmill. Have a gander at the 2007 and 2008 winter seasons and study the events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 That soloution blows. That's really close to being a monster storm for all of us...verbatim its a huge snowstorm N of the MA/NH border....but given its 240 hours out on an OP Euro run, it will likely show partly cloudy skies on the 00z run. The block on that run though is responsible for forcing redevelopment on a storm that would otherwise cut all the way up through Michigan and into Ontario. This strange intense blocking scenario is going to be hellecious on the deterministic model solutions until they are very close in. Hell we still aren't exactly sure on the Friday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 That's really close to being a monster storm for all of us...verbatim its a huge snowstorm N of the MA/NH border....but given its 240 hours out on an OP Euro run, it will likely show partly cloudy skies on the 00z run. The block on that run though is responsible for forcing redevelopment on a storm that would otherwise cut all the way up through Michigan and into Ontario. This strange intense blocking scenario is going to be hellecious on the deterministic model solutions until they are very close in. Hell we still aren't exactly sure on the Friday event. oh noes...I'm getting deja vu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 That's really close to being a monster storm for all of us...verbatim its a huge snowstorm N of the MA/NH border....but given its 240 hours out on an OP Euro run, it will likely show partly cloudy skies on the 00z run. The block on that run though is responsible for forcing redevelopment on a storm that would otherwise cut all the way up through Michigan and into Ontario. This strange intense blocking scenario is going to be hellecious on the deterministic model solutions until they are very close in. Hell we still aren't exactly sure on the Friday event. I know...tongue-in-cheek...it was a play on the fact that its either literally snow or I hate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Okay, you're doing this on purpose. I'm hittn' the treadmill. Have a gander at the 2007 and 2008 winter seasons and study the events. LOL, I lived the events, SWFE FTW, . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 WOW at the end of the 12z Euro. That has potential for a huge hit over the interior. You can see it coming from day 8 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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