40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 LOL, I lived the events, SWFE FTW, . Well played.....you're honestly turning into Kevin in more than one respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 WOW at the end of the 12z Euro. That has potential for a huge hit over the interior. You can see it coming from day 8 too. If I end up missing a KU event by 30 miles to the NORTH, then I would honestly lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Look at the blocking ridge setting up to the north and east of the low too!! This could be something of the longer duration variety. Honestly a set up for major major snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 That's really close to being a monster storm for all of us...verbatim its a huge snowstorm N of the MA/NH border....but given its 240 hours out on an OP Euro run, it will likely show partly cloudy skies on the 00z run. The block on that run though is responsible for forcing redevelopment on a storm that would otherwise cut all the way up through Michigan and into Ontario. This strange intense blocking scenario is going to be hellecious on the deterministic model solutions until they are very close in. Hell we still aren't exactly sure on the Friday event. We will continue to see a multitude of differnt solutions until were in close it seems with this pattern..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Look at the blocking ridge setting up to the north and east of the low too!! This could be something of the longer duration variety. Honestly a set up for major major snow storms. Heavy heavy Feb 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 That's really close to being a monster storm for all of us...verbatim its a huge snowstorm N of the MA/NH border....but given its 240 hours out on an OP Euro run, it will likely show partly cloudy skies on the 00z run. The block on that run though is responsible for forcing redevelopment on a storm that would otherwise cut all the way up through Michigan and into Ontario. This strange intense blocking scenario is going to be hellecious on the deterministic model solutions until they are very close in. Hell we still aren't exactly sure on the Friday event. Love it! Thinking caps this year, like I said, models after72 this year will be bunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 If I end up missing a KU event by 30 miles to the NORTH, then I would honestly lose it. you could sleep on the floor in my dorm if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well played.....you're honestly turning into Kevin in more than one respect. LOL heavy heavy practice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Kevin may be the Pope but God is speaking in other threads on the board. PAC rules. Without a retrograding block and 50-50 low, these lows will plow inland with nothing to stop them really. That's what made last night's ECMWF run so interesting and I am looking forward to the 12z run. The GFS completely fails to retrograde the block, like it was doing yesterday on all runs. You don't have a +PNA and the high frequency wave pattern from the Pacific would plow that thing right down to the ground. Personally, I think the GFS run was a hiccup and not a trend. This is especially true given the ECMWF data! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Love it! Thinking caps this year, like I said, models after72 this year will be bunk. they should get a bit better once the pattern locks a bit more. we're finally about done with the transition phase, so i'd think instead of only knowing what's going on out to day 3 to 5 (like it's felt like for the last 7 to 10 days or so) i'd wager we'll see a bit of improvement starting early this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Heavy heavy Feb 69. Man you got blasted in that. I hope someday the young guys will get to experience a month like that. Wanted to snow every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 they should get a bit better once the pattern locks a bit more. we're finally about done with the transition phase, so i'd think instead of only knowing what's going on out to day 3 to 5 (like it's felt like for the last 7 to 10 days or so) i'd wager we'll see a bit of improvement starting early this week. Agree to a point, might handle the upper levels better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Love it! Thinking caps this year, like I said, models after72 this year will be bunk. Thus, the year of the sneaky low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Kevin may be the Pope but God is speaking in other threads on the board. PAC rules. Uh Bob that was before the EC run, heavy heavy change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 It's actually a little March 2001 esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Heavy heavy Feb 69. That was an aweseome month here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Box seems to be listening to the Rev sermons wrt late week here. Holding of precip until Thursday night with a 50% chance of snow, 50% chance of snowshowers on Friday. Funny how people seem to dismiss the possibility that others may see snow as well. Things seem to be trending more positively than negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 That was an aweseome month here..... About 40" here that month as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Box seems to be listening to the Rev sermons wrt late week here. Holding of precip until Thursday night with a 50% chance of snow, 50% chance of snowshowers on Friday. Funny how people seem to dismiss the possibility that others may see snow as well. Things seem to be trending more positively than negative. pretty interesting wording too THIS WOULD PLACE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDING NORTH INTO QUEBEC. BASED ON THIS...DECIDED TO START THANKSGIVING DRY AND BRING IN PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE FORECAST. IF IT COMES IN MUCH LATER...COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET OR EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN. WITH THE UNCERTAIN TIMING...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST SIMPLE FOR NOW AND JUST MENTION EITHER RAIN AND/OR SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 About 40" here that month as well. We had very few school days that month........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Uh Bob that was before the EC run, heavy heavy change. Bob , HM Just when the GFS loses it, the ECMWF jumps on it. The blocking that retrogrades out of Greenland on the 12z ECMWF is jaw-dropping. It is the type of anomaly where "anything goes" as far as storm potential and phasing. It almost looks like the Heather A. signal at 240h with a complete retrogression. Seems fast again, but hey...I'm glad the ECMWF is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 It's going to be a long winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Euro definitely colder with a better secondary but still mostly all rain for SNE. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Bob , HM Just when the GFS loses it, the ECMWF jumps on it. The blocking that retrogrades out of Greenland on the 12z ECMWF is jaw-dropping. It is the type of anomaly where "anything goes" as far as storm potential and phasing. It almost looks like the Heather A. signal at 240h with a complete retrogression. Seems fast again, but hey...I'm glad the ECMWF is on board. Not discrediting that solution. This is for next Fridays system that I am referring to. PAC energy can overwhelm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 It's going to be a long winter. First week of December will be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Euro definitely colder with a better secondary but still mostly all rain for SNE. Blah. Should be the classic se mass secondary, but I think it could be interesting especially for interior NH and ME. Heck maybe a few hours or more of sn/ip/zr in nrn orh county before a flip to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Should be the classic se mass secondary, but I think it could be interesting especially for interior NH and ME. Heck maybe a few hours or more of sn/ip/zr in nrn orh county before a flip to rain? You placed my thoughts out perfectly here. Gotta run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Not discrediting that solution. This is for next Fridays system that I am referring to. PAC energy can overwhelm. Pretty tough to lock anything down with only ONE model run, especially this winter. I can gaurantee two things. 1. It will get cold 2. It will snow ......sometime this winter, but the Euro was beautiful for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Should be the classic se mass secondary, but I think it could be interesting especially for interior NH and ME. Heck maybe a few hours or more of sn/ip/zr in nrn orh county before a flip to rain? Yeah def. up there it gets interesting... even ORH/BAF the Euro right now is still like 98% rain for the time being. I think it's going to get hard to get anything of consequence out of this one. Euro has continued to show an impressive cold push for the weekend so that's still in play and now we focus our attention on storm threats next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Pretty tough to lock anything down with only ONE model run, especially this winter. I can gaurantee two things. 1. It will get cold 2. It will snow ......sometime this winter, but the Euro was beautiful for sure. Yeah for Killington, VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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