Wx4cast Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 12z UK and GGEM imply some kind of threat Friday/Saturday after Thanksgiving? Likely suppressed but close. You could even argue the EC says so too just delayed through early next week. The UK has been on and off again on this threat for a bout the last 3-4 days. Its interesting as to how the 3 foreign models are suggestive of it occurring. IMO EC is actually more favorable for NON suppressed track come early next week. i.e., it could come up to SNE.... BTW I have been updating my blogs about this event if anyone is interested... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 You could even argue the EC says so too just delayed through early next week. The UK has been on and off again on this threat for a bout the last 3-4 days. Its interesting as to how the 3 foreign models are suggestive of it occurring. IMO EC is actually more favorable for NON suppressed track come early next week. i.e., it could come up to SNE.... BTW I have been updating my blogs about this event if anyone is interested... i guess this is a tease for most of SNE....but perhaps well inland elevated areas have interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I leave for the afternoon come back and find all the shelves empty of rope and just a bunch of tables without chairs left, I see the 12z euro had another steller showing for t-day and after looks pretty warmish on the ops......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I leave for the afternoon come back and find all the shelves empty of rope and just a bunch of tables without chairs left, I see the 12z euro had another steller showing for t-day and after looks pretty warmish on the ops......... i was talked down by clearer heads i am now a born again blizzisism when things appear to change i take comfort knowing they are how i thought they were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 i was talked down by clearer heads i am now a born again blizzisism when things appear to change i take comfort knowing they are how i thought they were. To early in the season to get overly worked up on snow potential or lack there of, Anything in november is a bonus in my book, Now if we get to jan without anything i may have a different perspective, But i doubt i will have to worry about that.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 To early in the season to get overly worked up on snow potential or lack there of, Anything in november is a bonus in my book, Now if we get to jan without anything i may have a different perspective, But i doubt i will have to worry about that.......... well i would agree with that perspective do to a point. i think we gotta go gang busters out the gate to be normal down in SNE.....you not so much i.e above ave december! reason being most analysis i hear about says that Nao would be negative late november most of DEC....then more of a mild jan-feb with a few shots here and there then late feb thru march another decent period.....not that i'm married to that idea or believe too deeply in the forecasting ability out that far....but when i hear it so much i believe there is something to it. So at minimum i would like to be in a good set up at the beginning of december. and euro ensembles are starting to waver on that idea it appears. Also i mean i'm a freakin weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 well i would agree with that perspective do to a point. i think we gotta go gang busters out the gate to be normal down in SNE.....you not so much i.e above ave december! reason being most analysis i hear about says that Nao would be negative late november most of DEC....then more of a mild jan-feb with a few shots here and there then late feb thru march another decent period.....not that i'm married to that idea or believe too deeply in the forecasting ability out that far....but when i hear it so much i believe there is something to it. So at minimum i would like to be in a good set up at the beginning of december. and euro ensembles are starting to waver on that idea it appears. Also i mean i'm a freakin weenie I agree, It looks like it might be a little tougher in some areas of SNE this winter and i can relate to the frustrations of the people it affects, Up this way last jan once that retro storm came thru here and it was raining in caribou and here and snowing in CT winter was done here while most everyone south of 40N was having an epic year for the most part, Not so much sne but the mid atlantic and that was pill that was hard to swallow here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Man, I guess we're preaching to the choir with some of this stuff. Some of you are seriously going to freak out if an event in late November or the first few days of December doesn't pan out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Man, I guess we're preaching to the choir with some of this stuff. Some of you are seriously going to freak out if an event in late November or the first few days of December doesn't pan out? I'm not overly concerened but like i said above my levels would be heightend come Jan and i was still looking for my 1st flakes...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well the 00z gfs still wants to throw a little luv up this way in ME and back in western mass on the 26th looks like it trying to develop a late blooming miller b........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I'm not overly concerened but like i said above my levels would be heightend come Jan and i was still looking for my 1st flakes...... Well that is far different than not having snow by Dec 4th. We pretty much had nothing '08-'09 until the Dec 19th event. Dec 13th was basically the first good one in '07-'08. But I agree I would be very concerned if we had no snow in December. However, I am not too concerned about that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Man, I guess we're preaching to the choir with some of this stuff. Some of you are seriously going to freak out if an event in late November or the first few days of December doesn't pan out? The only thing that really ever seemed likely from this was the potential for some mixed precip at the beginning. Not sure why some are freaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The only thing that really ever seemed likely from this was the potential for some mixed precip at the beginning. Not sure why some are freaking out. I dont know either the potential is a little more realistic of some frozen here but i was not expecting anything more the maybe an advisory event at best.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The only thing that really ever seemed likely from this was the potential for some mixed precip at the beginning. Not sure why some are freaking out. Well I was saying ppl shouldn't freak out even if the post-Thanksgiving pattern through about the 5th doesn't produce. There's no guarantee a favorable pattern will produce good setups in individual storms....and on the flip side, no guarantee bad patterns will produce bad setups. We can get snow in a bad pattern...its just tougher than in a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I dont know either the potential is a little more realistic of some frozen here but i was not expecting anything more the maybe an advisory event at best.... Yerah much different than NNE...they have potential for some accumulating snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well the 00z gfs still wants to throw a little luv up this way in ME and back in western mass on the 26th looks like it trying to develop a late blooming miller b........... Hr 144 is quite tasty, no? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well I was saying ppl shouldn't freak out even if the post-Thanksgiving pattern through about the 5th doesn't produce. There's no guarantee a favorable pattern will produce good setups in individual storms....and on the flip side, no guarantee bad patterns will produce bad setups. We can get snow in a bad pattern...its just tougher than in a good one. Yeah there is no reason to freak out, if we go through most of December though than it might be a different story but we'll definitely have the potential upcoming, that's all you can really look for is potential. Anyways though the 0z GFS looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The only thing that really ever seemed likely from this was the potential for some mixed precip at the beginning. Not sure why some are freaking out. Like I said all along, it was never a real threat......many of the same folks who slammed me for being "negative" are now the ones who are freaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Aroostook County Annihilator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Like I said all along, it was never a real threat......many of the same folks slammed me for being "negative" are now the same ones who are freaking out. I never understood how people can call you negative, you're one of the most level headed people here, if there is a threat that does seem interesting and gives us a shot you'll say so, if it doesn't look great you'll say so, you at least keep emotions out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well that is far different than not having snow by Dec 4th. We pretty much had nothing '08-'09 until the Dec 19th event. Dec 13th was basically the first good one in '07-'08. But I agree I would be very concerned if we had no snow in December. However, I am not too concerned about that happening. In 07 we had our 1st event on 12/3 we received 7.5", In 08, Nov 30th we had 1.5", And in 09 is was 6.5 in on 12/5 so typically the first of dec is when we receive our 1st ones up here but that nothing thats etched in stone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Hey Will, what are the odds of any frozen in Claremont, NH this tday...I'm guessing not great, but better than mby. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I'm actually hoping it pans out for some of you bums...I need a place to stay when a chance. Hopefully Will or stratus gets bombed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 In 07 we had our 1st event on 12/3 we received 7.5", In 08, Nov 30th we had 1.5", And in 09 is was 6.5 in on 12/5 so typically the first of dec is when we receive our 1st ones up here but that nothing thats etched in stone.... Well I'm talking about SNE when I make those posts. We had a little bit of snow from 12/3/07 but nothing good. We had some garbage snow too around 12/5/09 but it was mostly an inch or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I'm actually hoping it pans out for some of you bums...I need a place to stay when a chance. Hopefully Will or stratus gets bombed You can always stay with me. We can share a blanket and pillow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Hr 144 is quite tasty, no? lol It is, And the low hangs around the GOM for 24 hrs or so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 It is, And the low hangs around the GOM for 24 hrs or so..... Ambience snows for the weekend (and the win) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I never understood how people can call you negative, you're one of the most level headed people here, if there is a threat that does seem interesting and gives us a shot you'll say so, if it doesn't look great you'll say so, you at least keep emotions out of it. No, I am prone to emotional swings, which is why I demonstrate some manic depressive tendencies in my posting genre.....but November is not going to elict that type of response from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well I'm talking about SNE when I make those posts. We had a little bit of snow from 12/3/07 but nothing good. We had some garbage snow too around 12/5/09 but it was mostly an inch or less. Yeah i know you are referncing down your way, I think neither one of us in the end will have much to worry about....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Hey Will, what are the odds of any frozen in Claremonth, NH this tday...I'm guessing not great, but better than mby. lol Eh, might start off as some frozen, I haven't actually looked at the individual runs too closely today since I've been out a lot. As I said many days ago...don't expect much from this one...if it pans out, its all gravy. Maybe some wack job solution like the 00z GFS will try to hit some of the region with CCB snows, but I certainly wouldn't count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.