Post Turkey Day Storm Threat

[ORH_wxman]

It might be some of the members hinting at a storm to our west by Monday after T-day which moderates the 850 temps to just below 0C (which of course is just the mean...meaning some mebers are probably a lot warmer and others colder)...the pattern then looks pretty ripe the first few days of December on the ensemble mean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wow, pretty strong signal for a low on 12/2 12/3 on the GFS ensembles. This date has been signaled for a few days now.

I thk this is our 1st event...agreed.

[CoastalWx]

Ray is gonna lose it. How in the hell could the ensembles have been so wrong so many days in a row?

Some of the members from previous runs had it. The majority didn't. The mean can be deceiving, but looking at the trends and H5 pattern can give clues. It's still wise to use ensembles after d7, but the op runs sometimes are right...just how it is. Even a few days ago I said it wasn't a lock for the next storm (after T-weekend) to be snow, because there were signs of this.

It just shows you how models struggle with changes in any pattern.

[ORH_wxman]

Decent late blooming miller B signal on Euro ensembles around Dec 1-2?

[Damage In Tolland]

On a Jerry note..I saw 3 of the fattest squirrels out in the yard today when I was doing leaves. Biggest and fattest I've seen since I've started looking at them every fall.

[CoastalWx]

Decent late blooming miller B signal on Euro ensembles around Dec 1-2?

It looks like one of those storms that have an extremely deep upper level low with low pressure over the lakes, but then the ull migrates to the coast and we end up getting redevelopment.

[CoastalWx]

It still looks fine in the extended. Sometimes we may have to take a necessary extra step in the step down process, but as long as that block doesn't go anywhere, the chances are there. The Pacific may be the source of headaches and lots of ups and downs.

[Ginx snewx]

On a Jerry note..I saw 3 of the fattest squirrels out in the yard today when I was doing leaves. Biggest and fattest I've seen since I've started looking at them every fall.

Fat bastards everywhere down here, brought the snow blower out of the shed, tarp was full of acorns, huge fat squirrel nearby. Snow blower all tuned up for the Dec third storm. I just looked at the Euro, why all the chair tipping is beyond me. Scooter and Will are right on this.

[Damage In Tolland]

It still looks fine in the extended. Sometimes we may have to take a necessary extra step in the step down process, but as long as that block doesn't go anywhere, the chances are there. The Pacific may be the source of headaches and lots of ups and downs.

Hopefully not

[40/70 Benchmark]

Everyone needs to climb back from the bridge. I hope nobody was expecting a complete and all out arctic assault. That was never in the cards. I'd also treat the euro op with a grain of salt for now. Like I said, the d10 threat could still be a mild solution as even hinted by the ensembles, but we'll have some chances down the road. Just because the ensemble mean is below 540, doesn't mean every storm will be frozen. The details are to be determined, but the key players are still there for opportunities. That block is not going anywhere for now. Keep a realistic approach and you won't be let down. It's not even Thanksgiving yet. Climo says relax and put the knife down.

I know....don't get the sense of urgency....its not even tday.....what on Earth does Mike mean; which events haven't turned out.

[ORH_wxman]

It still looks fine in the extended. Sometimes we may have to take a necessary extra step in the step down process, but as long as that block doesn't go anywhere, the chances are there. The Pacific may be the source of headaches and lots of ups and downs.

The block looks like its holding more robust in later frames than previously, which isn't surprising, given the model tendency to rush pattern changes. Perhaps we are seeing signs it was rushing in more permanent cold too soon?

As you said, I like the block staying there, it should provide multiple chances. We knew the ridiculous arctic cold wasn't coming...but that we'd have a generally below avg regime that was active with storm threats. I don't think any of that changes...it certainly didn't/doesn't guarantee that you will get every storm to track to your south and east. There's always the danger of too far west...but the block should favor some redevelopers or maybe amplify a clipper type system.

[Ginx snewx]

It still looks fine in the extended. Sometimes we may have to take a necessary extra step in the step down process, but as long as that block doesn't go anywhere, the chances are there. The Pacific may be the source of headaches and lots of ups and downs.

I made a prediction early this fall that factories would run of lumber building chairs, and pot farmers would convert to selling hemp stalks for rope for all the panicking weenies, so far so good.

[CoastalWx]

LOL it keeps trending more persistent with the -nao with each model run. The other thing is that it also tries to keep heights lower over the west coast.. Quite the battle.

[Ginx snewx]

LOL it keeps trending more persistent with the -nao with each model run. The other thing is that it also tries to keep heights lower over the west coast.. Quite the battle.

Take that in a heartbeat, we said epic battle lines with sharp gradients, anyone north of Dobbs Ferry NY is in great shape.

[CoastalWx]

The block looks like its holding more robust in later frames than previously, which isn't surprising, given the model tendency to rush pattern changes. Perhaps we are seeing signs it was rushing in more permanent cold too soon?

As you said, I like the block staying there, it should provide multiple chances. We knew the ridiculous arctic cold wasn't coming...but that we'd have a generally below avg regime that was active with storm threats. I don't think any of that changes...it certainly didn't/doesn't guarantee that you will get every storm to track to your south and east. There's always the danger of too far west...but the block should favor some redevelopers or maybe amplify a clipper type system.

And who knows, we may have to go through a warmer storm after the 12/2 potential. We just don't know the details other than the key players in the upper levels, but if those look good, then I don't see a huge reason to be pessimistic, just realistic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I think I even said several times in the past few days, that despite what the "mean" showed, snow storms are not a lock as we don't know the exact details. I even said the ensembles hinted at a Plains low after Thanksgiving, but they get lost in all the weenies locking in gfs arctic cold. I'll be surprised if we don't have a snow event for somebody in sne by Decemer 10th or so.

I thk that is a good bet.

[ORH_wxman]

And who knows, we may have to go through a warmer storm after the 12/2 potential. We just don't know the details other than the key players in the upper levels, but if those look good, then I don't see a huge reason to be pessimistic, just realistic.

Hey all you can ask for is a decent chance....that's what the block provides...no guarantees. But I'll take my chances and I like the idea of the first snow event somewhere in this time period post-Thanksgiving through about the first week of Dec...maybe until the 10th.

[CoastalWx]

Hey all you can ask for is a decent chance....that's what the block provides...no guarantees. But I'll take my chances and I like the idea of the first snow event somewhere in this time period post-Thanksgiving through about the first week of Dec...maybe until the 10th.

Yep, agreed.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I made a prediction early this fall that factories would run of lumber building chairs, and pot farmers would convert to selling hemp stalks for rope for all the panicking weenies, so far so good.

Weenies will have to wait until there is room on the bridge.

We'll be fine. We will all be buried several times before Christmas. Twice before Pearl Harbor Day. Wooly Bears ftw

[Organizing Low]

that block is filthy.

[ORH_wxman]

Yep, agreed.

Ppl just need to keep expectations in check. If this favorable period doesn't work out, we'll try again the next series of storms we see. We didn't get going until Dec 13th in '07 and not until Dec 19th in '08....I think a lot of people are forgetting how early it is despite us going into a generally favorable pattern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ray is gonna lose it. How in the hell could the ensembles have been so wrong so many days in a row?

I'm not losing anything...I felt all along that my first real shot would be early Dec and I still do.....really don't give a flying **** how cold the last week of Novie is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On a Gay note..I saw 3 of the fattest weenies out in the yard today when I was doing leaves. Biggest and fattest I've seen since I've started looking at them during puberty.

Ay caramba!

[CT Rain]

12z models sucked.

[40/70 Benchmark]

And who knows, we may have to go through a warmer storm after the 12/2 potential. We just don't know the details other than the key players in the upper levels, but if those look good, then I don't see a huge reason to be pessimistic, just realistic.

Absolutely and there are many weenies who can't distinguish btwn the two.

Tday is a non event....come to grips and deal, but Dec still looks promising.

[CoastalWx]

Ppl just need to keep expectations in check. If this favorable period doesn't work out, we'll try again the next series of storms we see. We didn't get going until Dec 13th in '07 and not until Dec 19th in '08....I think a lot of people are forgetting how early it is despite us going into a generally favorable pattern.

I don't blame people getting excited after last winter, but yeah we're still 5 days from Thanksgiving. If anything, I'd rather the push back into December when my area has a better shot.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12z models sucked.

Its Novemeber....climo sucks.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Decent late blooming miller B signal on Euro ensembles around Dec 1-2?

Same as GFS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't blame people getting excited after last winter, but yeah we're still 5 days from Thanksgiving. If anything, I'd rather the push back into December when my area has a better shot.

I couldn't agree with you Will more; last winter was last winter and its over.

New season.

[CT Rain]

Will and Scooter pretty much covered it earlier in this thread but I think based on the 12z models it's fair to say that the post-Thanksgiving cold push may underperform. No one was expecting record cold but the op Euro and even the Euro Ensembles to some extent have muted the cold push.

From Monday 11/29 on it's really too early to get excited. Models keep hinting at either a miller B midweek or some kind of overrunning setup with cold bottled to the north. The 12z op Euro is just a disaster with a deep trough/closed low over the central plains pumping up heights but the ensembles aren't nearly as terrible.