dryslot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 PPL should know by now. They should but a lot of people don't, Not so much the guys up here in the NE but the board in general mid atlantic and south, The gfs more times then not latches on to and idea further out only to lose it to the Euro within its kill zone to only come back to it at the day or two before the storm generally hits..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Pd 2 + NAO? It was almost like an east based -nao, but we had one heck of a PV to the northeast. Heights out west were high, which in turned helped spawning cyclogenesis off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 If we can maintain a pretty strong -NAO through the entire winter than I think ALL of SNE will have a great winter...not just places ORH on north. Think 1970-1971 That would be an epic winter....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I think that ship sailed a couple of days ago with the GL cutter scenario, Would try to squezze something between the two i would presume, Your right we would be all over that setup..... Fuuny , just looked back on the Eastern thread from last year for the ,9th, you were saying the same thing, obviously cutters do not mean all rain,.I do not expect any snow but people forget very quickly that a Neg NAO and a cold bleed down can create a nice overrunning scenario even if a storm cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 That would be an epic winter....... La Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 That would be an epic winter....... Especially for you guys in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Fuuny , just looked back on the Eastern thread from last year for the ,9th, you were saying the same thing, obviously cutters do not mean all rain,.I do not expect any but people forget very quickly that a Neg NAO and a cold bleed down can create a nice overrunning scenario even if a storm cuts. It's the classic, secondary crossing sne...whether it be on the Cape or further west. That's what usually happens with a big block to the northeast. Path of least resistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Fuuny , just looked back on the Eastern thread from last year for the ,9th, you were saying the same thing, obviously cutters do not mean all rain,.I do not expect any but people forget very quickly that a Neg NAO and a cold bleed down can create a nice overrunning scenario even if a storm cuts. Thats funny, I have seen more time when they cut far enough west the low level cold can hang on and we get some decent overunning events out of it......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I bet any storm we get really won't show up on the models until were like 4-5 days away (that's what usually happens anyway though :lol). With such a fast flow aloft and probably multiple pieces of energy being embedded in the flow models really won't pick up on anything major until it's 4-5 days away...that's when we'll see more signs of phasing and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Especially for you guys in NNE Its the #1 season in my sig..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 It's the classic, secondary crossing sne...whether it be on the Cape or further west. That's what usually happens with a big block to the northeast. Path of least resistance. I think we talked about that about a month ago on eastern about storm tracks taking tracks of least resistance where they ride either east or west of the apps or trasfer there energy to the coast to form a secondary..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Its the #1 season in my sig..... Yeah that was quite an epic winter...even down here in SNE it was quite awesome...except for PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Thats funny, I have seen more time when they cut far enough west the low level cold can hang on and we get some decent overunning events out of it......... I screwed that post all up, yes they do, do not think it's a matter of longitude, rather the location of the block. When I see negligible winds at the surface or 850 to dislodge antecedent air and good lift that's a signal to me that overrunning snow or a triple point will happen. Case in point 08 cutter which cut through Syracuse but good snows enveloped CNE despite the 850going through ALB. One of many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Just checked for our parts and the winter of 70-71 yielded 134.7 inches of snow in Caribou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I think we talked about that about a month ago on eastern about storm tracks taking tracks of least resistance where they ride either east or west of the apps or trasfer there energy to the coast to form a secondary..... There is a physical reason for that too. Flow down a mountain "stretches" the column of air and enhances potential vorticity. So lows moving west of the Apps, or east of the Apps benefit from this reason. Obviously, a natural baroclinic zone exists east of the mountains and over the water, so low development is favored more in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Just checked for our parts and the winter of 70-71 yielded 134.7 inches of snow in Caribou. March 1971 blizzard just nailed you guys and Canada, one of the bigger blizzards on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I screwed that post all up, yes they do, do not think it's a matter of longitude, rather the location of the block. When I see negligible winds at the surface or 850 to dislodge antecedent air and good lift that's a signal to me that overrunning snow or a triple point will happen. Case in point 08 cutter which cut through Syracuse but good snows enveloped CNE despite the 850going through ALB. One of many. Well time of year is big too. Low level cold is a heck of a lot more intense a month from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 There is a physical reason for that too. Flow down a mountain "stretches" the column of air and enhances potential vorticity. So lows moving west of the Apps, or east of the Apps benefit from this reason. Obviously, a natural baroclinic zone exists east of the mountains and over the water, so low development is favored more in this region. Yes, It seems to be more prevelent with storm systems in the summer and winter, But tropical systems seem to go against any of that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Just checked for our parts and the winter of 70-71 yielded 134.7 inches of snow in Caribou. What is caribous avg? That does not seem to be to far off of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Well time of year is big too. Low level cold is a heck of a lot more intense a month from now. It also becomes a lot tougher to dislodge as well as we move along thru the winter as we build snow pack to our north and west..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 It also becomes a lot tougher to dislodge as well as we move along thru the winter as we build snow pack to our north and west..... Yeah snowpack is a big deal...it keeps everything nice and refrigerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 As enticing as that pattern is on the LR GFS it still worries me some (aside from the fact that the ECM is totally different). That 50/50 low is so strong and creating so much confluence that it could just screw us like last winter. Anyway, the GFS is probably wrong but just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Yes, It seems to be more prevelent with storm systems in the summer and winter, But tropical systems seem to go against any of that.... Entirely different beasts. They are a heat machine and sustain themselves, so long as the fuel is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 As enticing as that pattern is on the LR GFS it still worries me some (aside from the fact that the ECM is totally different). That 50/50 low is so strong and creating so much confluence that it could just screw us like last winter. Anyway, the GFS is probably wrong but just a thought. Well the good news, is that if we do have lower heights to the west, that enhances the se ridge and lows will tend to move closer to sne. I'm not worried about confluence killing us like it did last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Well the good news, is that if we do have lower heights to the west, that enhances the se ridge and lows will tend to move closer to sne. I'm not worried about confluence killing us like it did last year. Thank God we probably will NOT have to worry about that this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Thank God we probably will NOT have to worry about that this winter. I think I'd rather worry about that than not have a fleeting chance in hell with cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Entirely different beasts. They are a heat machine and sustain themselves, so long as the fuel is there. They dont care about mtns either, Case in point Hurricane Bob, When it dropped back to a tropical storm tracked west of me here right up thru the western maine mtns into canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Caribou averages 113 inches of snow per winter. Looking at the March blizzard mentioned, records show it dropped about 13 inches of snow; although there was a second storm later in March that dropped an additional 11 inches of snow. By the way, the summer of '71 was pretty busy up here severe weather wise with 4 tornadoes reported in Aroostook. 2 F-1 tornadoes and 2 F-2 tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Thank God we probably will NOT have to worry about that this winter. Violently agree....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I think I'd rather worry about that than not have a fleeting chance in hell with cutters. Well at least with cutters we actually get a storm, even if it's rain or a mix or a changeover...with suppression all we get are cirrus clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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