Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The euro op looks like a classic swnh..nrn orh county and berks ice. Tolland may get some, but I don't like the boundary layer trajectory. Yeah I think it's a colder scenario than what the NAM has. I wish Will was around today. He's very good at these kind of setups and I would bet he's leaning towards a colder scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 19/16, snow w/bursts to heavy 1" new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yeah I think it's a colder scenario than what the NAM has. I wish Will was around today. He's very good at these kind of setups and I would bet he's leaning towards a colder scenario I already am, by knocking down the 2m temps, but even the euro is not a classic ice event for you. If it were maybe 30-40 miles east..perhaps. I wish the GFS were right, but again I think it's too far east. Just hope the NAM is wrong..lol. We want the second low to develop quick and track further east. To me, it looks like a classic elevated interior ice for nw CT through Berks and nrn orh county. It's possible you could be ice for a little bit too. Edit: I should respond..after snow fall in those locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Looks like a mostly snow event here as per Box's current forecast. Monday Night: A chance of snow, mainly after 2am. Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday: Snow likely before 2pm, then snow and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night: Snow likely. Patchy fog after 10pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday: A chance of snow showers. Patchy fog between 8am and 9am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I already am, by knocking down the 2m temps, but even the euro is not a classic ice event for you. If it were maybe 30-40 miles east..perhaps. I wish the GFS were right, but again I think it's too far east. Just hope the NAM is wrong..lol. We want the second low to develop quick and track further east. To me, it looks like a classic elevated interior ice for nw CT through Berks and nrn orh county. It's possible you could be ice for a little bit too. Yeah I don't think this is going to be all ice here..but I think at least 50% or more will be frozen precip ending as a 34 drizzle or something. I can guarantee NAM ticks colder each run tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 19/16, snow w/bursts to heavy 1" new. Thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I already am, by knocking down the 2m temps, but even the euro is not a classic ice event for you. If it were maybe 30-40 miles east..perhaps. I wish the GFS were right, but again I think it's too far east. Just hope the NAM is wrong..lol. We want the second low to develop quick and track further east. To me, it looks like a classic elevated interior ice for nw CT through Berks and nrn orh county. It's possible you could be ice for a little bit too. Maybe I better dig the generator out of the snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'd call that a MECS on the EURO next Friday....6-10" type deal....nice. I don't think 6-10" qualifies as a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yeah I don't think this is going to be all ice here..but I think at least 50% or more will be frozen precip ending as a 34 drizzle or something. I can guarantee NAM ticks colder each run tomorrow. I think the NAM track at 18z, would be a much cooler storm if it were to verify. No way the Berks are above 36F. Again, prob some good ice that way on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Looks like a mostly snow event here as per Box's current forecast. Monday Night: A chance of snow, mainly after 2am. Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday: Snow likely before 2pm, then snow and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night: Snow likely. Patchy fog after 10pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday: A chance of snow showers. Patchy fog between 8am and 9am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Yeah--the western zones are all sayiing frozen only.. Heavy snow. 1.5" down. 18.4/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I already am, by knocking down the 2m temps, but even the euro is not a classic ice event for you. If it were maybe 30-40 miles east..perhaps. I wish the GFS were right, but again I think it's too far east. Just hope the NAM is wrong..lol. We want the second low to develop quick and track further east. To me, it looks like a classic elevated interior ice for nw CT through Berks and nrn orh county. It's possible you could be ice for a little bit too. Edit: I should respond..after snow fall in those locales. Yeah the key is popping a coastal, getting it strong, and having it track far enough east. The boundary layer trajectory on the Euro sucks for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I don't think 6-10" qualifies as a MECS If the EC in question is the Roanoke area it would be, but yeah, that's a pretty ordinary storm for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 ice storm for northern ct area on monday night and Tue . Another snowstorm late next week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I think the NAM track at 18z, would be a much cooler storm if it were to verify. No way the Berks are above 36F. Again, prob some good ice that way on the NAM. Yeah if you look the NAM at 18z has like 2 sfc lows... a weak one over N NJ sort of screws things up and results in a more easterly BL flow before the real coastal takes over. Probably some type of convective feedback so yeah I think given that setup it would be colder... more like 12z. For most of us I think it's rain but Litchfield County, Berkshires, SW NH still look icy to me (though the Euro sort of blows) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GFS looks similar to 12z, HP might be a little better established this run, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I have a big meeting in Fairfield County on Tuesday. Should be wet but sloppy wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 18Z GFS keeps it mostly snow here...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 gfs looks cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yeah--the western zones are all sayiing frozen only.. Heavy snow. 1.5" down. 18.4/15 Rippin' pretty good here too Mike. Looks like it'll be over fairly soon though. Sleet is fine but I'd rater not see any zr, don't need no stinkin'crust to ruin the excellent tree skiing. Net gain of snow likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 18Z GFS keeps it mostly snow here...... Possibly a low-end warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 gfs gives me warning type snows with a change to rain at the very end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 gfs looks cold Are those sleet soundings from inland off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 gfs looks cold colder Looks like a snow storm for northern Mass. Looks like the flight out of bdl would go as scheduled wed a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Are those sleet soundings from inland off the coast? i'm guessing yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 That looks like snow and plenty of it here... Soundings look cold to me with the warmest level right around 800 as of hour 72. Can't see hour 78 sounding. 78 on plymouth maps look like all snow to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 i'm guessing yes I am hoping GFS is right, no NAM solutions please. GFS is juicy though like NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Possibly a low-end warning event. Yeah, Looks like it trys to develop a another low on the tail end of the front as it moves thru on thurs........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Nice front end of snow here on the GFS. I'm not sure if we ever go to more than PL here on the GFS. NAM would be snow to an icy mess. This next week I'm thinking longitude may be advantageous to me ...whereas last week it was a detriment. Yeah the key is popping a coastal, getting it strong, and having it track far enough east. The boundary layer trajectory on the Euro sucks for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 i'm guessing yes Soundings surprised me, Ice storm Litchfield hills, up to ORH, south of there Nasty warm layer at 900, wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Rippin' pretty good here too Mike. Looks like it'll be over fairly soon though. Sleet is fine but I'd rater not see any zr, don't need no stinkin'crust to ruin the excellent tree skiing. Net gain of snow likely. Actually looks like the shield will be dipping south at least along the trail like Tip said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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