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NNE slowly approaching winter

dendrite

By dendrite,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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Saw no signs of problems just to the north - New Sharon to Fairfield to BGR, 7:45-9:30 this morning, though everywhere had about the same dusting of snow grains as in MBY. Same story coming home 3-4:45, but my pickup left in New Sharon had a few icicles hanging from hood and sides from ZR. We drove thru RA at temps (vehicle instrument) 39 falling to 34 coming home, and 33 but no precip the final 20 miles.

My oldest had to go to college in wtvl, Said cars strewn all over the road with a jeep up on a guardrail looking down at the river below that person must of soiled himself....

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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5:30pm and still only 32.5F High today so far has been 32.8F. Its amazing that I always seem to hold on to the low level cold air. I see this time and time again. Rainfall total .20"

That's fairly impressive... I'm always amazed at how you guys in NH and ME hold cold air in these situations. This would've been huge snowpack retention advantage for you guys if we actually had some snow, lol. I'm up to 41F all the sudden and at the high for the day... Mansfield summit 3,000+ft over my head is 42F. Certainly some warm air moving in aloft with colder surface temps from the Green Mountains and eastward. MPV is 37F and MVL is 39F, while on the other side of the Green Mtn spine BTV has torched to 51F. Further west, even the cold spot of SLK at over 1,600ft in the Adirondacks is 48F. Compare this to lots of low to mid 30s showing up on the meso-net from near the Lakes Region of NH and points northeast.

In January we'd all be melting over here while you guys out east are are barely dripping, haha.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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It sounds like our next shot at frozen precipitation comes tonight into tomorrow morning at the start of this next system. Our point and click forecast has us receiving snow and sleet tonight, and then freezing rain into tomorrow, although from the BTV NWS discussion it doesn’t sound like they’re worried about much in the way of accumulation before the temperatures warm. After that, the next chances for frozen precipitation down here in the valley appear to be Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then Thursday night through Sunday.

Checking on/listening to the latest forecasts, it sounds like there may actually be three more shots at snow or other frozen precipitation coming this week. Yesterday morning’s first round is complete, but the upcoming shots look to be as follows:

Opportunity number two is tonight into tomorrow. It sounded like things would be pretty dry as of yesterday, but both Roger Hill and the NWS are indicating the chance of snow showers with today’s cold front:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

633 AM EST TUE NOV 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW FREEZING.

Opportunity number three is Thursday night into Friday, which appears to be mixed precipitation. Roger Hill mentioned his concern for travel during that period. The NWS has mentioned it as well, although they expect places like the Champlain Valley to just change over to rain:

DEFINITELY HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR SEVERAL HRS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG/EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. HAVE INCORPORATED MIX OF IP/ZR/R DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD WARM THINGS UP SUFFICIENTLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO TURN THINGS OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.

Opportunity number four is presumably any lake effect/upslope snow that might come along after that event. The NWS isn’t really expecting anything accumulating for the valleys, so we’ll just have to see how that goes for now:

LOOKING LIKE A PROGRESSIVE WAA AREA OF PCPN FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW STRATIFORM RAIN/MIXED PCPN TO END AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY WITH A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA LATE IN THE DAY.

BROAD UPR TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL 850MB TEMPS /AROUND -10C/ SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME LAKE ONTARIO STREAMERS BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS FROM TIME TO TIME. LIKEWISE...A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREEN MTNS. COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE PERIOD OF 24-36 HRS IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE PCPN IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

So the pattern is certainly active and there will be things to watch.

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tamarack

tamarack

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My oldest had to go to college in wtvl, Said cars strewn all over the road with a jeep up on a guardrail looking down at the river below that person must of soiled himself....

Manager at Farmington Tire (got the snows mounted this AM) said there was lots of skating in town yest morn, and our road was sanded twice. I think our travel time heading to BGR came just ahead of the ZR culprit.

I had 0.15" thru 7 this morn, and today was archetypical Nov gloomy - clouds and fog. The motion sensor that runs the lights in my office is behind a bookshelf/divider, so once things darken I have to get up and walk around the shelf every 8-10 minutes. The dance began at 2 this aft.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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I posted this in the Turkey Day storm thread but that thread has hit a brick wall now that SNE is out of the game for that one... so I figure I'll re-post this here as to my thoughts and adk's thoughts regarding upslope snow potential Friday and Saturday:

I'm sure others will chime in but I think on friday afternoon one of the key factors will be the strength of the wind coming off of Ontario. I think given the direction a decent streamer or moisture could move from Ontario into the Dacks in then Into the Greens. Wind looks a little weak right now but it has shown better in previous model runs.

As for the traditional "Upslope snow" as far as I see the best chance is from later friday into later saturday as the surface low and 500mb low pull towards the east. Winds will be mostly w/nw and RH looks to be saturated from ground to around 850 which is enough for upslope. With pretty cold temps (I've seen -8 to -12 c in the associated region) you sure can get a decent punch of upslope. I'm not in the 6-12 boat however. More like 3-4 maybe 6 at the most ...

I'm right there with you... the GFS dream runs from a few days ago are gone. I'm honestly not expecting too much throughout this weekend, although flakes should be in the air off an on from later Friday into Sunday morning.

If someone held a gun to my head I'd say 2-5" along the immediate spine (ski resorts) with an outside chance of 6" at the top of Mansfield or Jay. For the lower elevations, I'd say a dusting-2" from occasional snow showers.

H85 wind flow is a little more westerly than I'd like for a larger upslope event... although it does present the wildcard of moisture from Ontario getting into the flow. If that occurs, there could be some isolated higher amounts. Overall the larger features aren't in the best of positions but guidance has been hinting at a good punch of H5 energy moving overhead on Saturday morning. In my experience H5 vorticity is a very good thing as it provides some mid level support to the lift already occurring in the lower levels. If the models are correct, there could be a period of more widespread snow shower activity late Friday night and Saturday morning.

As ADK mentioned, H85 temps are quite chilly and right in the wheelhouse for good dendrite snow growth. I've found the best upslope ratios happen with H85 temps near -12C and we'll be between -9C and -12C. With a little assist from mid-level lift we should see the best upward vertical motion punch into that favorable dendritic zone.

Overall though... not looking as favorable as a few days ago but we should at least get the snow showers back in the air and they should be persistent enough to accumulate up on the ski resorts, and maybe even spill down into neighboring towns. My concern with places below 1,000ft isn't temperatures but dry air. It looks like we may advect some dry air into the boundary layer on Friday night... this is why I'd really like to see all the features with this system a bit farther east and wrapped up so it can drag some more moist Maritime air in from the east, as opposed to advecting drier continental stuff in from the west.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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I like the trends of the 18Z GFS and NAM. Looks like a rain to snow situation and each run is showing more QPF and sharper trough and redevelopment of a new low further SE. Thoughts?

It is definitely trending a little sharper with redevelopment a bit further SE.... but I just looked at it on the PSU EWALL and its still too little, too late. That is primarily a rain/freezing rain situation as by the time the atmosphere is able to snow, the precip has pushed off to the NE.

The more interesting thing is at the end of the NAM run there's some pretty good Lake Effect coming off Lake Ontario... it shows it crossing the northern 'Dacks with the band even reaching into northern VT. That coupled with upslope might work out nicely for someone.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

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The trend seems to continue on the 0Z NAMtowards a rain or freezing r rain to snow solution. Almost .75" of QPF now for Central NH. Plymouth surface temp stays below freezing during the entire event. While there is warm air at first the heights crash during the last part. Seems to be about .25" of QPF left when all levels are below freezing. Obviously I am not a Met and could be reading the data wrong but it looks to me like lots of ice and a couple of inches of snow for Central NH areas.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

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The trend seems to continue on the 0Z NAMtowards a rain or freezing r rain to snow solution. Almost .75" of QPF now for Central NH. Plymouth surface temp stays below freezing during the entire event. While there is warm air at first the heights crash during the last part. Seems to be about .25" of QPF left when all levels are below freezing. Obviously I am not a Met and could be reading the data wrong but it looks to me like lots of ice and a couple of inches of snow for Central NH areas.

i think your correct.....then heights crash all the way to sub 5160.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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Opportunity number two is tonight into tomorrow. It sounded like things would be pretty dry as of yesterday, but both Roger Hill and the NWS are indicating the chance of snow showers with today’s cold front:

As of 6:00 A.M. the temperature has dropped to ~32 F, there are snowflakes in the air, and I can hear the wind still blowing higher up with even some gusts down here. There is no snow accumulation to report at this location, as the snowfall has been very light, and there’s only a bit of signal on the BTV composite radar. With this morning’s addition from the gauge, we have picked up 0.29” of liquid for this event, bringing this location to 49.21” for the calendar year. Not sure how much more snow will fall with this current event, but next up is Thursday night into Friday, where the NWS has us down for a wintry mix. Not surprisingly, Roger Hill says to watch out for nasty travel conditions during that period, with some light accumulations of frozen material possible.

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

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Yeah looks like the interior has some ice Friday morning.

I'll be snuggled like a bug in a rug but my wife has potential shopping plans ($189 laptop at Best Buy).

GYX says precip will be light and only cause minor problems, but I dunno about that if thousands of lunatic women and their lapdog husbands are out shopping in the wee hours.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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It was snowing lightly with a fresh dusting of snow at 5am in the village this morning as I was getting ready to head to work. As I headed the few miles up to the mountain there was a more substantial coating of a half inch or so above 1,200ft... but wow was it windy. It was honking big time when I got to the office at 5:30am... we were seeing gusts between 30-40mph at 25F outside Mtn Ops Center at 1,550ft. Top of the FourRunner Quad at 3,600ft was 15F with gusts over 50mph... wind chills were near or below zero up top all day today.

Morning snow showers and flurries cleared out quickly by 9am and we've been partly to mostly sunny ever since. It is still quite windy.

I forgot how much fun it is working up there... you always see some of the most extreme weather (relative to this area) and that's always worth it. Nothing like being there in the early morning dark as the building creaks and moans in the wind with snowflakes zipping past the windows.

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