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NNE slowly approaching winter

dendrite

By dendrite,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Just got the "opening weekend" email from Jay Peak. Personally, I wish they'd wait one more week, as it looks like they might cash on the upslope over the next few days, and I love some opening day pow.

But all the same, just one more sign that winter has commenced. :guitar:

Yep... ski season is starting in northern VT now. Stowe opened today, Sugarbush tomorrow, Jay Peak on Friday, and Smuggs on Saturday.

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radarman

radarman

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Yep... ski season is starting in northern VT now. Stowe opened today, Sugarbush tomorrow, Jay Peak on Friday, and Smuggs on Saturday.

Kind of funny to have the possibility of wind holds on opening day with no departing storm around. Hope it went well though. Did you get out there?

edit. I suppose there was actually a departing storm technically

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Kind of funny to have the possibility of wind holds on opening day with no departing storm around. Hope it went well though. Did you get out there?

Overall it went well... conditions really weren't bad for the first hour or two, but went downhill (no pun intended) quickly after that. I was there at opening to get some pics of the gates being moved out of the way, first chair of the season, and first turns, etc. I skied a couple runs that were decent right off the bat, but I went back out around noon to get another couple runs in and things had gotten quite icy by then. The ice was expected though as it was 50F and pouring rain yesterday and by this morning it was in the teens. Not much you can do about that... flash freezes are awful because rain water doesn't have enough time to drain from the snow surface and the whole snowpack then locks up into glacial ice.

Operationally I can't believe we didn't have a wind hold this morning on the high-speed quad, because the wind was ripping... but luckily it was ripping down the line and not across it. You can run a lift in surprisingly high wind as long as the direction is parallel to the chair line, as it doesn't cause the back and forth swinging that wind coming across the lift line causes.

Snowmaking is running at full tilt whenever possible, as it doesn't look like mother nature is going to help out with terrain expansions anytime soon... so it should be a slow process getting other stuff open a couple trails at a time, instead of a nice 2 foot snowstorm that would open 75% of the terrain in one swoop.

Next operational impact for the ski resorts around here will be Friday morning... freezing rain expected after midnight on Thursday night will mean frozen chair grips and haul ropes. Could be some lift issues at New England ski resorts on Friday because of this ice potential.

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tamarack

tamarack

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Listening to the wind roar and the house creak after the alarm went off at 5 AM had me decide it wasn't worth it to get up early and look for deer - getting wimpy, I guess. I did walk out to my favorite stump to watch the day end, and there was a fresh-fallen fir, maybe 7" diameter and 45' tall, about 12' from where I sit. Glad it didn't fall while I was out there. (Another blue-painted tree that the logger probably won't be able to harvest.) The few snow pellets that fell 7-9 AM remained in place all day; my high was 38 but I think that came overnight, with the afternoon topping at 33-34.

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

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Wow you really got cold over there. low 20s here. Hoping to wake up to some frozen tomorrow.... Happy Thanksgiving.

Yeah, according to a local PWS the wind stopped around 1:30 at a temp of 27F and then we plummeted to 15F. Some sort of frozen looks likely tonight, though I don't know if I'll be up in time to see it before it rains on us. Baby steps. Happy Thanksgiving to you.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

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19.3F coldest morning so far. Trying to figure out what our precip will be tomorrow. Looks to me like a brief period of snow to sleet to freezing rain. Question will be do I rise above freezing or not? 6Z NAM has Plymouth with a high of 36F or so but I normally am a bit colder. Would be nice to keep some ice on the ground and trees for the weekend. We will see buteither way QPF for NNE does not look to generous, maybe .25" to .35" at this poin unless the coastal can get going a bit and enhance things.

Happy TG to you guys.

Gene

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
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14.7F ... coldest reading for the season.

I see most of NNE is under a WWA. :thumbsup:

Wind never really quit here, so the bottom was 18-19. Given the midlevel temps, the amount of frozen/freezing precip coming may hinge on how far the temp can fall tonight before clouds thicken.

06z gfs has RUM getting 5"+ RA next Wed-Thurs. What are they smoking?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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A quarter inch of ice???? That's a good deal of ice isn't it? That could cause some serious issues.

That's not that much ice... no power outages or anything like that from 1/4". You need more like 1/2"+ to even start to think about damage.

Of course, the roads might be slick, but usually main roads that are treated and frequently traveled aren't too bad. The roads that get really bad in ZR events are the dirt roads.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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This cold is certainly over-performing in the last 24 hours and I suspect that this will lead to more snow/ice than rain with this event.

This morning the NWS had a forecast high of 36F at 800ft in Stowe village... so far the high is 27F with a Td of 9F. Up at the ski resort on Mansfield's eastern side, I doubt we crack freezing tomorrow at all. When I left at 2pm, snowmaking said they had a wet bulb of 16F in the base area. Yesterday's internal forecast had our high temperature modeled at 34F at the base (1,550ft) and so far today we've been struggling to get to 25F. This morning our temperatures on the hill were a full 10-12F lower than forecast.

With earlier arrival of clouds and temps running 7-12F lower than progged even 12 hours ago... coupled with wetbulbs in the teens area wide... I bet we see most of this storm come in as an IP/ZR mix east of the Green Mountain spine. This cold is going to have a hard time leaving us tucked up against the eastern side of Mansfield.

I bet you guys in NH and ME see a pretty good Advisory level mixed event, too... and you'll likely see a little more snow and sleet than we will over here as I fear we are going to be mostly freezing rain. Plus, the ground surface is now very cold after yesterday's low 30s high, followed by 15F low this morning, and now a high temp today that is struggling to get into the upper 20s.

Today was the first day I've noticed ice forming on the side of the West Branch river that flows off Mansfield and runs behind my apartment... I thought that was fairly impressive to see a decent bit of ice forming on the rocks and river edges, but I guess 15F overnight and 36 hours well below freezing will do that.

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dryslot

dryslot

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This cold is certainly over-performing in the last 24 hours and I suspect that this will lead to more snow/ice than rain with this event.

This morning the NWS had a forecast high of 36F at 800ft in Stowe village... so far the high is 27F with a Td of 9F. Up at the ski resort on Mansfield's eastern side, I doubt we crack freezing tomorrow at all. When I left at 2pm, snowmaking said they had a wet bulb of 16F in the base area. Yesterday's internal forecast had our high temperature modeled at 34F at the base (1,550ft) and so far today we've been struggling to get to 25F. This morning our temperatures on the hill were a full 10-12F lower than forecast.

With earlier arrival of clouds and temps running 7-12F lower than progged even 12 hours ago... coupled with wetbulbs in the teens area wide... I bet we see most of this storm come in as an IP/ZR mix east of the Green Mountain spine. This cold is going to have a hard time leaving us tucked up against the eastern side of Mansfield.

I bet you guys in NH and ME see a pretty good Advisory level mixed event, too... and you'll likely see a little more snow and sleet than we will over here as I fear we are going to be mostly freezing rain. Plus, the ground surface is now very cold after yesterday's low 30s high, followed by 15F low this morning, and now a high temp today that is struggling to get into the upper 20s.

Today was the first day I've noticed ice forming on the side of the West Branch river that flows off Mansfield and runs behind my apartment... I thought that was fairly impressive to see a decent bit of ice forming on the rocks and river edges, but I guess 15F overnight and 36 hours well below freezing will do that.

Yeah checking out the obs down stream this storm has over performed for a lot of people, This is going to act more like a swfe event and those are hard to model but we usually do well with them here and i think we may have some surprises for some.........

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
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That's not that much ice... no power outages or anything like that from 1/4". You need more like 1/2"+ to even start to think about damage.

Of course, the roads might be slick, but usually main roads that are treated and frequently traveled aren't too bad. The roads that get really bad in ZR events are the dirt roads.

Got ya... never payed much attention to zr. Little to no icing in the city.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Got ya... never payed much attention to zr. Little to no icing in the city.

Yeah, I'm sure you never had icing problems in Boston. Its either snow, sleet or plain rain. But yeah, 1/2" is usually the threshold where branches will start to break... maybe a little bit more like 3/4ths of an inch though up north here where the vegetation is quite hardy from years of harsh winters. 1/4" of ice would probably do it for some areas where the vegetation isn't as used to such a thing... like down in the coastal mid-Atlantic and southeastern U.S.

But up north, it takes a bit more ice to damage and that's why the NWS offices don't warn until at least a half an inch is expected.

It is interesting though to see how critical ice thicknesses vary from location to location... like down here in Stowe village it might take a half an inch to cause damage, but I've seen 1"+ at the top of Mansfield not do anything because the vegetation is so used to it. I will dig up the pictures some day (on the external hard drive), but I have shots that show over 6" (most ice I've ever seen on a tree) of clear ice on spruce and fir trees in the upper elevations and they still were not breaking.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Here's BTV's snowfall graphic for Northern VT... I'd gladly take their 2.2 inches to whiten the area up. Immediate mountain peaks should see a decent bit more than the lower village elevations.

Man I am so happy to be out of Burlington and here in Stowe, haha. So nice to be out of the snow hole.

Looks like a solid lake effect band and mountain enhanced snow showers should take place on Saturday.

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 413 PM EST THURSDAY...AT 12Z FRIDAY...MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALG-E OF EASTERN

ADRIONDACKS AND EXITING VT IN THE 15-18Z TIMEFRAME. SURFACE TEMPS

WILL HAVE JUST REACHED AOA FREEZING IN THE HEART OF THE

ADIRONDACKS/SW ST LWRNC VLY AND SRN HALF OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY

GRADUALLY WARMING ELSEWHERE IN VT EXCEPT EXTREME NE VT BY MIDDAY AS

PRECIPITATION BECOMES LGT/INTERMITTENT.

TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR

LESS...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN NRN ST LWRNC VLY...KMSS EAST.

OCCLUDED FRONT SLIDES EAST OF FA WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT

BUT COLD UPPER LOW ACROSS ONTARIO FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND

EVENTUALLYDOWN TO THE SFC FROM NY INTO VT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT

FOR A CHC OF SNOW SHOWER LATE.

MEANWHILE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE CRANKING GEARS FOR THE FIRST

EVENT OF THE 2010-11 WINTER SEASON.

FOR SEVERAL RUNS...MODEL AND BUFKIT DATA SHOWING LAKE INDUCED CAPES

400-600 J/KG WITH 245-260 FETCH WITH TREND OF 245-250 PLACING

SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE BETWEEN ROUTES 11 AND ROUTE 3 IN HEAT OF

ACTIVITY...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING S WITH PASSAGE OF UPR LOW AND SFC

TROUGH.

SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALG/AHD OF TROUGH WILL BRG SCT SNOW SHOWERS

ACRS FA WITH SOME SQUALLS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

SNOW ACCUMS...LOCALIZED 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLY MORE DEPENDING ON

LONGEVITY AND STATIONARY OF BAND WITH GENERAL 2-4 INCHES IN ADRNDKS

AND SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN NRN GREENS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME NRN MTN FLURRIES OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE

GRADUALLY BUILDING FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
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Apologies for the blank reply to Eric this morning. I'd typed in a message (wind overnight kept me 4-5F milder than his 14.7) but it disappeared into the ether. Maybe there will be enough sleet to whiten the ground tomorrow, or even be measurable. So far this month I've recorded a trace of frozen precip on 7 days without ever having that first 1/10".

18z gfs now has 3.2" RA next W-Th for Rumford, only a bit less insane than the 5"+ on 06z. I hope gfs is a major outlier on QPF. We DON'T need a gullywasher.

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