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dendrite

NNE slowly approaching winter

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I'm not home right now (in Albany, NY for 24 hours) but it looks like we are holding onto the snow in Stowe village today. This web cam is less than a half a mile away from me... though I've noticed the temperature is usually not even remotely close. Based on MVL and the meso-net, temps in the area are 33-35F right now.

webcam.jpg

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Nice shot! I do love your eternal optimism... 2007-2008 was an epic December though, lol. Mansfield got like 6 feet that month. Nothing I see has epic December written on it.

It’s interesting to hear that about December Scott. Everyone seems to be getting very excited in the “Pattern Change” & “Threat” threads, but it can sometimes be hard to sort out reality vs. wishful thinking (obviously sticking with the comments of the professional meteorologists can help). Based on your comments though, I guess a lot of it is simply wishful thinking.

November ends in two days, and based on the forecast for high pressure, no snow is expected in our area. So, we should end up with 2.4 inches of snow for the month at my location. With such a low snowfall total for November, we’re going to need 80 to 90 inches of snow even down here in the valley in December just to get back on pace with 2007-2008 (see chart below). During that season, the only midwinter month that was below average for snowfall in our location was January, so that could be a spot to make up some ground. Other than that though, if December isn’t robust in terms of snowfall, there are going to have to be a couple of December 2007-style months this season to stay on track with 2007-2008. I’m making comparisons to 2007-2008 since it was brought up above, and it’s the strongest snowfall season I have in my records, but it wasn’t actually that amazing a season in terms of total snowfall. It’s harder to say where 2007-2008 stands for snowfall in my location (122% of the current average) since I only have four years worth of data, but it’s still only about one standard deviation from the average I’ve calculated here. With last year’s very poor snow totals, the calculated average for this location took quite a hit, so if we do indeed follow the snowfall trends for the higher elevations, it may now be a bit low. In the higher elevations during the 2007-2008 season, Bolton Valley up above us had 330 inches, which is only 106% of their reported average, and according to Tony Crocker’s 2007-2008 snowfall summary, Jay Peak, Smuggler’s Notch, and Stowe (as well as Sugarbush and Killington farther south) fell only into the “Above Average” category, and didn’t even make the “high” category. I’m not sure at what percentage Tony cuts off his various snowfall categories, but I’d argue that reaching the snow totals for 2007-2008 should not be all that challenging a feat for a typical “above average” snowfall season, and, if many of the seasonal snow forecasts for NNE are correct, it should be a piece of cake this season. So if the overall winter forecasts are correct, December isn’t setting up to be special in terms of snowfall, and the signals are supposedly not there for strong winter in the east beyond December (just throwing that out there because it has come up several times in the pattern threads)… something has got to give. What’s it going to be? Like Pete, I’m not really concerned about the whole thing because even in the worst of seasons, we’re going to be buried in over 100 inches of snowfall and the mountains will get at least twice that, but it seems like a good topic for discussion and something that will be fun to watch play out.

14APR08A.jpg

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What’s it going to be? Like Pete, I’m not really concerned about the whole thing because even in the worst of seasons, we’re going to be buried in over 100 inches of snowfall and the mountains will get at least twice that, but it seems like a good topic for discussion and something that will be fun to watch play out.

I may be acting a bit conservative right now with regards to winter, but I too know that no matter what happens, it will snow... and a good amount at that. Even last season, by far the worst season on Mansfield in the 7 winters I've been here, we had 240".

It will snow this winter and even if December flunks, I have no doubt that we will get one 4-6 week period of consistent cold and snow. Even in the worst winters there is always that one period where it just seems to snow non-stop for a few weeks.

At Stowe we started our seasonal snowfall tally on November 1st when we started making snow, and this month tallied 22" (3,600ft) I don't have the spreadsheet in front of me, but I know that is below normal for November at the summit.

Couple that with the 35" the Mansfield cooperative station measured in October and so far the upper elevations of the ski resort have accumulated 57" through the end of November. When I look at it that way, getting roughly 5 feet of snow before December 1st isn't too shabby.

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For anyone else that wants to be plotted on the mesomap:

I whipped up a little tool that will help me find your exact location.

Just click your location on the map found through the link below. At the top of the page it'll give you the X and Y coordinates. Let me know what it says for your location and then I'll plot you.

http://72.172.140.226/getlocation.php

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For anyone else that wants to be plotted on the mesomap:

I whipped up a little tool that will help me find your exact location.

Just click your location on the map found through the link below. At the top of the page it'll give you the X and Y coordinates. Let me know what it says for your location and then I'll plot you.

http://72.172.140.226/getlocation.php

Thanks so much for setting this up, my coordinates are X=247, Y=446 on the map.

Like Jayhawk, I've also got a small map in my signature that provides my rough location. It's great to have this NNE map, because while I know the VT locations, I don't know the ME ones very well. To follow along in the past, I actually had to create a text file with descriptions of where the ME folks are located relative to the towns that I do know over there.

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For anyone else that wants to be plotted on the mesomap:

I whipped up a little tool that will help me find your exact location.

Just click your location on the map found through the link below. At the top of the page it'll give you the X and Y coordinates. Let me know what it says for your location and then I'll plot you.

http://72.172.140.226/getlocation.php

Im at X 560 Y 654

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For anyone else that wants to be plotted on the mesomap:

I whipped up a little tool that will help me find your exact location.

Just click your location on the map found through the link below. At the top of the page it'll give you the X and Y coordinates. Let me know what it says for your location and then I'll plot you.

http://72.172.140.226/getlocation.php

x 579 y 741

thanks for doing this!!!

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For anyone else that wants to be plotted on the mesomap:

I whipped up a little tool that will help me find your exact location.

Just click your location on the map found through the link below. At the top of the page it'll give you the X and Y coordinates. Let me know what it says for your location and then I'll plot you.

http://72.172.140.226/getlocation.php

Thanks. I had no clue as to adding my location directly to the mesomap. My computer may be getting blocked from some things - for instance, the toggle version goes black when I when I click on the show members spot.

X: 1046

Y: 359

Lat. is 44.6658

Lon. is 70.0275

It surprises me you got skunked. I'd have guessed you would be among the lucky ones to get blasted. It was great for like 10 minutes. lol A nice appetizer for winter.

A near miss. Friends in Jay and Readfield (15-18 miles SW and S, respectively) got nice 10-minute blizzards.

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My computer may be getting blocked from some things - for instance, the toggle version goes black when I when I click on the show members spot.

Are you using an older computer/browser? The member location overlay image is a transparent .png, which some older browsers don't support.

------------

I've updated the mesomap to include everyone now. If you're seeing the previous version, you may need to hold down control and press F5 to reload the page manually to flush the browser cache.

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Thanks. I had no clue as to adding my location directly to the mesomap. My computer may be getting blocked from some things - for instance, the toggle version goes black when I when I click on the show members spot.

X: 1046

Y: 359

Lat. is 44.6658

Lon. is 70.0275

It surprises me you got skunked. I'd have guessed you would be among the lucky ones to get blasted. It was great for like 10 minutes. lol A nice appetizer for winter.

A near miss. Friends in Jay and Readfield (15-18 miles SW and S, respectively) got nice 10-minute blizzards.

I thought you were futher NW of me here, Should have known because i use to deliver Beer in that area back in the 80's Your NE of Farmington..........

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Are you using an older computer/browser? The member location overlay image is a transparent .png, which some older browsers don't support.

------------

I've updated the mesomap to include everyone now. If you're seeing the previous version, you may need to hold down control and press F5 to reload the page manually to flush the browser cache.

You did a great job on the map, The only thing i noticed now was that i put my dot right over my temp station and now its hard to read......... :lol:

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For anyone else that wants to be plotted on the mesomap:

I whipped up a little tool that will help me find your exact location.

Just click your location on the map found through the link below. At the top of the page it'll give you the X and Y coordinates. Let me know what it says for your location and then I'll plot you.

http://72.172.140.226/getlocation.php

Great job, it's nice to have an idea of where everyone lives.

My coordinates are: X = 912 Y=736

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For anyone else that wants to be plotted on the mesomap:

I whipped up a little tool that will help me find your exact location.

Just click your location on the map found through the link below. At the top of the page it'll give you the X and Y coordinates. Let me know what it says for your location and then I'll plot you.

http://72.172.140.226/getlocation.php

44.09999,-70.70161 for me

X=849, Y=522

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I thought you were futher NW of me here, Should have known because i use to deliver Beer in that area back in the 80's Your NE of Farmington..........

MBY is about 8 miles SSE from the coop observer in Farmington, about 7 miles due east of Center Bridge, where Route 2 crosses the Sandy. If my location looks NE of Farmington, I must've clicked the wrong spot; the cursor pretty much disappeared when on the map itself so there was some guesswork involved. (Kind of like the polls on American - the voting spots are clear but the actual questions aren't visible. It's like they've washed out. That may be another product of the state of my technology.)

Edit: The questions look fine on the home machine; maybe the state system is blocking something.

And yes, Eek, my computers are old - somewhat old (got a rebuilt one 2-3 yr ago) at work, and ancient (2003) at home.

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Good old SE flow downsloping, damaging wind event for the Western Slopes of the Green Mountain spine on Wednesday...

BTV's got 40-60mph winds in the grids. Last year when I lived in Jonesville, which is located right on I-89 where it cuts through the "purples" on this map, I remember these easterly and southeasterly flow events were always a lot of fun. I'd never lived anywhere that sees "big wind" and although we'd get downsloped like it was our job (QPF would be like 1/2 or a 1/4 of what J.Spin would see 5 miles further east), we also gusted to 60mph+ in several events. The lack of QPF would be harsh in a winter storm, but in these rain storms it was actually alright... you'd just have wind and -RN/--RN (maybe a patch of blue sky?) while literally everyone 5 miles east and west of you was in +RN.

It got to the point where me and my roommates (all outdoor and weather enthusiasts) would be like, oh BTV calling for another ESE flow event, looks like we won't have power for the next day. I think we lost power there every time the wind blew.

The places to watch are Jeffersonville, Cambridge and Underhill as I've seen those spots come in with 80mph+ gusts downsloping for 3,000+ feet on the western slope of Mansfield... also Huntington to Lincoln and then again down in Rutland.

VTZ006-009-011-016>019-301700-

/O.NEW.KBTV.HW.A.0002.101201T0900Z-101202T0000Z/

LAMOILLE-WESTERN ADDISON-WESTERN RUTLAND-EASTERN FRANKLIN-

EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...MIDDLEBURY...

VERGENNES...RUTLAND...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...

BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON

303 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND

WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARDS...STRONG AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE AS A

RESULT OF LIMB AND TREE DAMAGE.

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Check out these winds in BTV's higher summits forecast for the Greens... our internal forecast at Stowe

showed winds in excess of 75mph by noon tomorrow. I think we may have some lifts on wind hold, haha.

I am actually quite excited to go up and see how this is tomorrow; it should be exciting in a sadistic sort of way.

.THE HIGHER SUMMITS FORECAST FOR THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT...

.TONIGHT...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN

RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH

WINDS 40 TO 55 MPH...INCREASING TO 55 TO 70 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT

TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 70 TO

85 MPH.

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Cloudy IMBY, had some dz earlier, low-mid 30s. Gray November slogs in to Dec. GFS puts the heavier RA getting here 6-8 PM thru maybe 5 AM - will make a nice 90 mile drive home from PWM this evening.

November was nearly 1F below my 13-yr avg. However, departures PWM/BGR/CAR ranged from about +1 to +2.5, which would indicate that Novembers from 1998-2010 have been around +2 compared to 1971-2000.

(Departures from IMBY avgs)

Avg high: 41.87...-0.89

Avg low: 24.63...-0.93

Mean......33.25....-0.91

Highest....58...13th

High min..39...9th

High mean..45...5th

Lowest....12...30th

Low max...29...26th

Low mean...24...21,22,26,27

Precip...5.30"...+0.38"

Snowfall...1.5"...-1.9"

Snowcover....1" from 26-30.

Days:

Sun....5

PC.....12

CL.....13

All tgether a fairly routine month (though perhaps having more days with strong winds than usual), with most numbers close to the averages.

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Interesting on the SE flow downsloping.. I remember seeing that in BTV's AFDs sometimes but I never paid too much attention. We never seemed to get much in Middlebury. It was windy but nothing terribly exciting.

70-85mph ohmy.gif time for a hike up Mansfield

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Interesting on the SE flow downsloping.. I remember seeing that in BTV's AFDs sometimes but I never paid too much attention. We never seemed to get much in Middlebury. It was windy but nothing terribly exciting.

70-85mph ohmy.giftime for a hike up Mansfield

I just left and winds were starting to really crank... nothing too gnarly in the base area at 1,500ft (25, gusting 40mph) but up high it is downright impressive. Riding the lift up was very interesting as our double chair is sheltered from the wind until the very top and the whole time you could hear the roar above your head. Above 3,000ft it was downright awesome if you love big weather... wind was strong enough to push you around and the stronger gusts made you want to curl up into the fetal position.

As far as I could see our more impressive obs were from the weather station on the Ski Patrol hut at 3,600ft. There were some readings of 1-min sustained at 55mph gusting to 73mph.

BTV VAD is showing some 80kts of wind at 4,000ft, with 50kts down to 2,000ft. It is absolutely ripping right now in the higher elevations.

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Check out these winds in BTV's higher summits forecast for the Greens... our internal forecast at Stowe

showed winds in excess of 75mph by noon tomorrow. I think we may have some lifts on wind hold, haha.

I am actually quite excited to go up and see how this is tomorrow; it should be exciting in a sadistic sort of way.

.THE HIGHER SUMMITS FORECAST FOR THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT...

.TONIGHT...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN

RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH

WINDS 40 TO 55 MPH...INCREASING TO 55 TO 70 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT

TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 70 TO

85 MPH.

A friend (actually somebody I think you know) has the WX station data from Whiteface summit...I meant to ask what it's gusting to up there. WF sees some big ass winds. Though nothing like Cascade pass or Wright peak. BIG winds there.

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A friend (actually somebody I think you know) has the WX station data from Whiteface summit...I meant to ask what it's gusting to up there. WF sees some big ass winds. Though nothing like Cascade pass or Wright peak. BIG winds there.

The data is private? I have experienced wicked winds at the face and down at gore. Winds need to be North to get wacked at gore.

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A friend (actually somebody I think you know) has the WX station data from Whiteface summit...I meant to ask what it's gusting to up there. WF sees some big ass winds. Though nothing like Cascade pass or Wright peak. BIG winds there.

Nice... I can't even imagine what its like at the top of Whiteface. The lifts there go 800 vertical feet higher than at Stowe and the peak is 500ft higher... must be intense up there at 4,800ft.

The Adirondacks get much bigger wind than the Greens just because the average elevation is so much higher. I've never been to Cascade or Wright... any reason why Wright gets more wind than other peaks? I bet the summit snowfields on Marcy are a bit windy today, too.

Although I had a seasons pass to both Gore and Whiteface growing up, I never did spend much time at Whiteface. Gore was a lot closer to home, though we would go up to Whiteface a couple times per season just because we had the pass. That mountain always amazed me at just how big it was; the vertical relief is insane. You get that "western" like feel of big spaces and big vertical that is hard to mimic at other ski resorts. The Greens might get the snow, but as far as size goes, they aren't even in the same league as the High Peaks region of the 'Dacks.

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Nice... I can't even imagine what its like at the top of Whiteface. The lifts there go 800 vertical feet higher than at Stowe and the peak is 500ft higher... must be intense up there at 4,800ft.

The Adirondacks get much bigger wind than the Greens just because the average elevation is so much higher. I've never been to Cascade or Wright... any reason why Wright gets more wind than other peaks? I bet the summit snowfields on Marcy are a bit windy today, too.

Although I had a seasons pass to both Gore and Whiteface growing up, I never did spend much time at Whiteface. Gore was a lot closer to home, though we would go up to Whiteface a couple times per season just because we had the pass. That mountain always amazed me at just how big it was; the vertical relief is insane. You get that "western" like feel of big spaces and big vertical that is hard to mimic at other ski resorts. The Greens might get the snow, but as far as size goes, they aren't even in the same league as the High Peaks region of the 'Dacks.

A) the data isn't private it's just not advertised.

The dang thing is broken. Though I talked to a friend at whiteface mountain ops who said the guage on tower 14 and 15 for the Gondola were hitting 45 easy. That's at 2750 ft or so and facing towards the NW. Usually that's a windy spot in NW flow patterns and shuts the gondi down. However now I can only imagine with a S wind what it must be like if it's hitting 45 there on the leeward side.

C) Oddly Marcy never struck me as one of the wind-ier high peaks. Wright gets the wind because it actually sticks out into the wind tunnel created by Avalanche Pass. So anything with a west-east component gets funneled into Avy pass and right over wright peak. Cascade pass is the same way...with a little more ability to funnel N-S winds.

D) Straight top to bottom run at WF without stopping will jelly almost anybody's legs. There really isn't any flat area. I've done it tele and regretted it.

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Mansfield just missed 100mph at 3,900ft today... more impressive is the spotter report of 84mph in Cambridge as that is probably a relatively low elevation station.

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
  MOUNT MANSFIELD 		96  1143 PM  12/1 COOP 
  CAMBRIDGE       		84  1007 AM  12/1 SPOTTER 
  CAMBRIDGE       		79   900 AM  12/1 MEDIA
  JEFFERSONVILLE          65   756 AM  12/1 SPOTTER 

Edit... we did it. Hit 103 on Mansfield. Even the low elevation, low wind area of Morrisville hit 51 on the ASOS.

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
  MOUNT MANSFIELD        103   400 PM  12/1 COOP - SUMMIT
  CAMBRIDGE           	90   305 PM  12/1 SPOTTER
  CAMBRIDGE           	79   900 AM  12/1 MEDIA
  JEFFERSONVILLE          65   756 AM  12/1 SPOTTER
  MORRISVILLE         	51  1255 PM  12/1 ASOS


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