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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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Setup on today's 06Z nam doesn't look great. Looks like the PV would squash that south and out to sea.

Yup. :(

Looks like "Option A" is going to win:

The ninas I recall tend to oscillate between long stretches of warmth and brief but fairly intense cold outbreaks. The latter have tended to feature clippers that dive well south of us, and deepen too far OTS, and split flow "southern stream" systems that slide right off the coast somewhere between JAX and ILM. The rest of those nina winter's lows seem to track up along the west side of the Apps, the OV or the eastern plains states. This is just based on memory, though, not a careful study.

Heights really seem to want to fall out west. Not a good sign. Especially since the cause of those eventual height falls is poorly sampled at this time (being even further back in the data poor PAC). Meanwhile our block, the Friday flurry fest, will be lifting unimpeded. While heights might stay "relatively low" in the east it's definitely a game of chicken. A high stakes one at that.

Impressive blocks again this year, an interesting change from just a few winters before. I need to get the "blocks gonna lift faster than the models show" thoughts out of my head. I just got so used to the whole "block last for 60hr at best" game that it's hard to see it otherwise.

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DGEX seems to want to give some loving for the areas that were hit with the Boxer day storm.

We're atoning for last year's indulgences; that and we're being punished for Ji's audacious, not to mention arrogantly irreverent, "this winter basically sucked...it only snowed three times, otherwise it was a waste" review late last Feb/Mar.

We could sacrifice him...just throwing the idea out there...

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We're atoning for last year's indulgences; that and we're being punished for Ji's audacious, not to mention arrogantly irreverent, "this winter basically sucked...it only snowed three times, otherwise it was a waste" review late last Feb/Mar.

We could sacrifice him...just throwing the idea out there...

That's an idea. But you have to admit he adds character to the boards. :whistle:

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We're atoning for last year's indulgences; that and we're being punished for Ji's audacious, not to mention arrogantly irreverent, "this winter basically sucked...it only snowed three times, otherwise it was a waste" review late last Feb/Mar.

We could sacrifice him...just throwing the idea out there...

That's an idea. But you have to admit he adds character to the boards. :whistle:

Of course warts on the face add character but it doesn't necessarily mean you want them. :devilsmiley:

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The GFS ensemble members give little support for this scenario.

Yet...the ECE members really seem to like something closer to the 6Z GFS than to the 0Z EC OP run. Many members appear to be significantly west of the OP.

Unfortunately they're a bit east of the 6Z GFS, especially from HAT and on up to the latitude of NYC. It'd be a great hit for SNE though MA/ME. It'd appear that perhaps two or three of the ECE members are far enough west to have a meaningful impact on our area.

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Changes on the 500mb for 12z NAM compared to 06z run. Can anyone tell me what the letter "N" signifies on those charts? I assume the "X" are shortwaves?

The X comes from "Max", as in areas of maximum vorticity. Similarly, the N comes from "Min", and are areas of minimum vorticity.

At least, that's how I understand it...

(and so yes, frequently the X corresponds to shortwaves)

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Yet...the ECE members really seem to like something closer to the 6Z GFS than to the 0Z EC OP run. Many members appear to be significantly west of the OP.

Unfortunately they're a bit east of the 6Z GFS, especially from HAT and on up to the latitude of NYC. It'd be a great hit for SNE though MA/ME. It'd appear that perhaps two or three of the ECE members are far enough west to have a meaningful impact on our area.

Thanks, for the word about the euro ensembles. At these time ranges, even this year I'd rather have a suppressed look than have a look where the track might be to the oh valley.

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Thanks, for the word about the euro ensembles. At these time ranges, even this year I'd rather have a suppressed look than have a look where the track might be to the oh valley.

I think we can take the ohio valley track off the table now given that Huge PV that will be sitting over the lakes this weekend.

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I think we can take the ohio valley track off the table now given that Huge PV that will be sitting over the lakes this weekend.

I think that was sort of my point. The options now are something close enough to the coast for snow or a complete whiff. I prefer those options than the Oh valley one.

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I think that was sort of my point. The options now are something close enough to the coast for snow or a complete whiff. I prefer those options than the Oh valley one.

Agreed now it can either make the turn and hit us/clip us/or miss us. I'll take our chances with that.

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I think that was sort of my point. The options now are something close enough to the coast for snow or a complete whiff. I prefer those options than the Oh valley one.

What in your mind will you be looking for then for a hit as far as what the models show?

Thanks

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