Discuss the Blizz of 2010 - Part II

[weatherwiz]

Don't know, don't care, but it's this area's turn to reap the benefits of a pivot point.

It's rare for you to really get crushed....you need the heart of the deformation right over you to offset your oragraphic deficiency....a la Feb 2001 and 2006, respectively.

WEll I'm getting a big one in March and you going to be screwed.

[weatherwiz]

I think you are getting basted now

Enjoy to 40's they're the only 40's you got

[HoarfrostHubb]

Only 17 old farts on this thread now... down from 170 or so last night, today...

Sort of like when Christmas dinner is done and all of the relatives go home except the crazy old drunk uncle who is sleeping in the big chair...

[CoastalWx]

The wind is still ripping man..jeez.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Even if I were still shut out, I wouldn't for a moment fear anything like that was on the horizon' we are reentering the 1960s imo.

Some bad luck to kick it off, but it won't last.

Ray, you posted 133+ times today/last night...

Somehow, I posted 60+ times I need a better life

[HoarfrostHubb]

The wind is still ripping man..jeez.

And you have 3432 posts!!! You realize this has only been around since mid-November

[40/70 Benchmark]

WEll I'm packn' a big one so say let me know when you want to be screwed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ray, you posted 133+ times today/last night...

Somehow, I posted 60+ times I need a better life

About 100 of those posts were bi*ching. lol

[CoastalWx]

I think whatever the snowstorm is, the best pressure fall couplet occurs to the west and northwest of that best couplet, is where the biggest snowfall occurs. I mean seriously look at all of the amazing snowstorms to occur on the East Coast. I can almost guarantee that the best snowfall and the best comma head occurs where ever the storm deepens the quickest. Blizzard of 2005: best pressure falls couplet occurred 54nm southeast of nantucket, MA. Where did the highest snowfall and banding occur? TO the Northwest of the cyclone's low pressure track, over NE MA and SE MA, including the Cape and Islands. This past storm, the best pressure falls occurred south of Long Island, NY and to the west and Northwest the best snowfall and comma head occurred. Let's take the storm that occurred last week, that storm passed way to our east, and the best comma head occurred to the west of the cyclone over the open waters just east of Chatham, MA where the best snowfall band was nearly stationary for near 12 hours, before gettin forced westward. The best snowfall occurred across Cape Cod and Plymouth, MA, where 10-14" of snow fell.

Pressure falls really aren't a huge part of determining heavy snow. In general, just be nw of the surface cyclone, no matter where pressure falls are. I knew based on the mid levels low placement that NYC area was going to get smoked with banding, before the low even formed. Sometimes this doesn't always have to be true, like in Dec '92 I believe. It's a function of other features like surface high placement to help with differential advection and also where the mid level lows are. I don't care where the low is, give me a high north of Maine and a good ccb any day. I thought this would have been a little better over areas like northern ORH county and southern NH, but there were red flags for sure. It also shows you that you can have a good track for a low, but if you entrain dry air and lack a big forcing mechanism to wring out the moisture, you can have issues.

[weatherwiz]

A+

[HoarfrostHubb]

How does having a high pressure to the north enhance snowfall? (met 101 again)

[weatherwiz]

How does having a high pressure to the north enhance snowfall? (met 101 again)

well it for one allows colder air to drain down into the region which neglects warmer air from working in.

[ORH_wxman]

How does having a high pressure to the north enhance snowfall? (met 101 again)

It will enhance ML frontogenesis

[stratuslove]

http://www.facebook....69&l=c2ae3e247a

just to add insult to injury.... heres some pics of the ~2 feet i got in NJ

[Ice Warrior commander]

we knew the real answer would appear, not Paul's

[CoastalWx]

How does having a high pressure to the north enhance snowfall? (met 101 again)

This applies more for coastal areas, as elevated interior areas don't need much help with the cold. We actually had a decent high to the nw, but the classic ones usually have a high over northern Maine

Or branch in from the Plaine and north of the Lakes.

The high serves to keep the cold in place as the low approaches. With such a cold dome overhead, warm air advection causes the warmer more moist air to rise up and over the cold air...sometimes rather steeply. The high not only increases the pressure gradient, but this enhanced gradient can lead to strong Atlantic inflow just above the surface thus creating a good cold conveyor belt of moisture. Throw this moisture over a cold dome and voila! Again, it's not like it's do or die with this, but all the classics had this.

Down in NJ, they were in the area of best mid level dynamics which is another way of getting heavy snow.

[nzucker]

I disagree. NYC is about as far NW as you can be while still being on the coast. That's not a great spot to be for big snowfalls. Isolated locations in and around NYC tri-state have gotten lucky a few times since 2006, but overall interior SNE is a MUCH BETTER location for heavy snowfalls.

NYC can benefit from Miller A and Miller B storms, though, which does allow for Central Park and its suburbs to rack up the KUs. Not to say we haven't been lucky lately, as well, but I'd argue it started long before February 2006. Here's a list of major snowfalls in my backyard since the 02-03 winter:

XMAS '02: 11"

PDII: 16"

Dec 03: 14"

Jan 05: 14"

Feb 06: 20"

Mar 09: 10"

Feb 10: 12.5"

Feb 10: 26"

Dec 10: 13"

[CoastalWx]

This applies more for coastal areas, as elevated interior areas don't need much help with the cold. We actually had a decent high to the nw, but the classic ones usually have a high over northern Maine

Or branch in from the Plaine and north of the Lakes.

The high serves to keep the cold in place as the low approaches. With such a cold dome overhead, warm air advection causes the warmer more moist air to rise up and over the cold air...sometimes rather steeply. The high not only increases the pressure gradient, but this enhanced gradient can lead to strong Atlantic inflow just above the surface thus creating a good cold conveyor belt of moisture. Throw this moisture over a cold dome and voila! Again, it's not like it's do or die with this, but all the classics had this.

Down in NJ, they were in the area of best mid level dynamics which is another way of getting heavy snow.

And as Will said, the high can enhance mid level frontogenesis with the cold dome overhead...it's all kind of related.

[weathafella]

I was out again with my dog after shoveling...back was sore and felt like I needed to walk. So we went to Griggs Park...a lovely wooded Olmstead creation that is nice particularly in the winter when the water collecting at the bottom of the basin freezes and my dog doesn't get a mudbath. The snow was deep but many areas had it packed down by people's walking. Winds were howling, snow was blowing, I'm going out again but I suspect it won't be as much fun. A great storm. I'm feeling just a little guilty about missing my wife's uncle's funeral but we don't get these types of events very often...and he's already gone. I'll have to make an appearance in Chicago this week. But bottom line....it was a great storm for me....out often at its height and thankful I still enjoy it and have the robust physical energy to endure its majesty.

[ORH_wxman]

And as Will said, the high can enhance mid level frontogenesis with the cold dome overhead...it's all kind of related.

Yes it is...its basically all about temp gradients. They are probably the most important feature. You can get heavy snow with weaker gradients, but its harder.

[HarveyLeonardFan]

Pressure falls really aren't a huge part of determining heavy snow. In general, just be nw of the surface cyclone, no matter where pressure falls are. I knew based on the mid levels low placement that NYC area was going to get smoked with banding, before the low even formed. Sometimes this doesn't always have to be true, like in Dec '92 I believe. It's a function of other features like surface high placement to help with differential advection and also where the mid level lows are. I don't care where the low is, give me a high north of Maine and a good ccb any day. I thought this would have been a little better over areas like northern ORH county and southern NH, but there were red flags for sure. It also shows you that you can have a good track for a low, but if you entrain dry air and lack a big forcing mechanism to wring out the moisture, you can have issues.

Scott, do you forecast for all three NYC airports? Do you deal more with the airport officials or the bigwigs at the airlines? Who's more demanding? When the forecast busts, who takes it harder? The weenies on this site, or the airports/airlines?

[CoastalWx]

Scott, do you forecast for all three NYC airports? Do you deal more with the airport officials or the bigwigs at the airlines? Who's more demanding? When the forecast busts, who takes it harder? The weenies on this site, or the airports/airlines?

I didn't forecast for this storm, but yes we do all three terminals. We don't deal with airport officials, just airline officials and ground crews. Busting is not a fun thing to do at any major east coast terminal. If this happens, the airline could take a huge hit with costs. Airlines are pretty demanding, the price of fuel has increased their stress exponentially. It's all about the dollar, as you know.

Last year was pretty straight forward. I dealt with both Mid Atlantic KU's and they weren't too bad to forecast.

[weatherwiz]

Yes it is...its basically all about temp gradients. They are probably the most important feature. You can get heavy snow with weaker gradients, but its harder.

I love gradients.

[ORH_wxman]

The only positive about having to wait a bit for the next interesting threat is this storm was a killer for sleep schedule. Stayed up nearly all night and then lost power (awful). Luckily it didn't affect my work too much as the storm was in the latter stages by then. But what a nightmare for sleeping this all was.

I'll probably do a little more post mortem on the storm tomorrow after I've caught up on sleep. In all the storm actually wasn't forecasted badly at all by model guidance inside of 48 hours...it was a little too bullish for the CT River valley and some other interior spots where it showed less anyway, but not quite enough less. They hit the jackpot zone right near BOS and of course did a good job on the megaband potential SW of New England in NJ and SE NY.

But there were still a few kinks.

[HoarfrostHubb]

This applies more for coastal areas, as elevated interior areas don't need much help with the cold. We actually had a decent high to the nw, but the classic ones usually have a high over northern Maine

Or branch in from the Plaine and north of the Lakes.

The high serves to keep the cold in place as the low approaches. With such a cold dome overhead, warm air advection causes the warmer more moist air to rise up and over the cold air...sometimes rather steeply. The high not only increases the pressure gradient, but this enhanced gradient can lead to strong Atlantic inflow just above the surface thus creating a good cold conveyor belt of moisture. Throw this moisture over a cold dome and voila! Again, it's not like it's do or die with this, but all the classics had this.

Down in NJ, they were in the area of best mid level dynamics which is another way of getting heavy snow.

Thank you (again - you should charge for this...Lucy helping Charlie Brown)

[HarveyLeonardFan]

I didn't forecast for this storm, but yes we do all three terminals. We don't deal with airport officials, just airline officials and ground crews. Busting is not a fun thing to do at any major east coast terminal. If this happens, the airline could take a huge hit with costs. Airlines are pretty demanding, the price of fuel has increased their stress exponentially. It's all about the dollar, as you know.

Last year was pretty straight forward. I dealt with both Mid Atlantic KU's and they weren't too bad to forecast.

Thanks. Drudge posted a headline from CNN.com where a former Shell Oil executive thinks the price of fuel will be far higher a year from now.

[codfishsnowman]

10-20 inches of snow in SNE is big, but not off the charts. 50 to 70 mph on the shore isn't *that* amazing...windy but not unheard of.

however, widespread 45 to 65 over the entire region with 10 to 20 inches of snow falling is pretty uncommon. we manage 15 to 20 inch events with 25 to 30 mph gusts somewhat frequently in SNE and we pull off huge wind events every now and then...but it's not very often (at all) that the two are combined to this degree.

definitely a fierce storm. for some folks it will long be remembered and for others, not so much. just imagine if we had had any semblance of good HP north of New England.

A good size portion of Ct and MA were well under the ten inch mark. I agree about the wind but the big area of SNE that picked up four to eight inches of snow deserves a mention. Sure there were some jackpots in sw CT and berks and boston metro down to taunton but a good part of SNE the snow totals were very pedestrian.

[weathafella]

A good size portion of Ct and MA were well under the ten inch mark. I agree about the wind but the big area of SNE that picked up four to eight inches of snow deserves a mention. Sure there were some jackpots in sw CT and berks and boston metro down to taunton but a good part of SNE the snow totals were very pedestrian.

The impact was very high because of population vs geography. In the most densely populated areas, this storm was the biggest in nearly 6 years.

[wxsniss]

The only positive about having to wait a bit for the next interesting threat is this storm was a killer for sleep schedule. Stayed up nearly all night and then lost power (awful). Luckily it didn't affect my work too much as the storm was in the latter stages by then. But what a nightmare for sleeping this all was.

I'll probably do a little more post mortem on the storm tomorrow after I've caught up on sleep. In all the storm actually wasn't forecasted badly at all by model guidance inside of 48 hours...it was a little too bullish for the CT River valley and some other interior spots where it showed less anyway, but not quite enough less. They hit the jackpot zone right near BOS and of course did a good job on the megaband potential SW of New England in NJ and SE NY.

But there were still a few kinks.

Amen to that, slept most of Sunday after 2 largely sleepless nights and several days of model hugging.

Would appreciate a post-mortem discussion --- comments on mid-level low placement, why coastal temp gradient was not as compressed, tendency of models to underestimate track closer to coast with such intense low pressures... but get sleep first!

[HarveyLeonardFan]

A good size portion of Ct and MA were well under the ten inch mark. I agree about the wind but the big area of SNE that picked up four to eight inches of snow deserves a mention. Sure there were some jackpots in sw CT and berks and boston metro down to taunton but a good part of SNE the snow totals were very pedestrian.

Agree, about 8 in 10 New England weather aficionados were disappointed in the storm. But check out the NYC picture thread. The photos of NY and New Jersey are incredible!!!