Tropical Storm Isaias

[Nomz]

NHC issuing advisories for TS Isaias. Max intensity forecast 95 kt @ 6z on the 9th. 

[dbullsfan]

Wait all year for a Cane.... I asked ChatGPT about my flight home Friday...because why not lol

 

The timing is almost comically bad

This is what caught my attention once you gave me the exact flight.

Your flight:

5:45 PM CDT departure = 6:45 PM EDT

Scheduled duration:

2h25m

About 90 minutes into the flight:

~8:15 PM EDT

Nominal position:

~28.8N, 88.4W

Current NHC hurricane forecast:

8:00 PM EDT — 28.8N, 88.3W — 100 mph

That's about as direct a conflict between a tropical-cyclone forecast and a normal airline route as you could construct.

[NorthHillsWx]

Think we’re gonna make it all year without a hurricane then literally the last disturbance with a chance not only becomes a hurricane but now looks increasingly likely to become a major hurricane and threaten the gulf coast. Overnight pretty much all guidance ticked east and faster which aligns better with shear vector snd the right entrance region of the jet so now it’s finding the best runway available in the gulf to strengthen. The impressive organization overnight is no doubt the reason why, it is very clearly stronger than a lot of guidance had it at this point from yesterday. Not surprisingly, intensity has gone way up and I now think this becomes a major and I’m not convinced it doesn’t peak pretty close to the coast. This is becoming an increasingly dangerous situation for the coast. Mobile bay to Panama City seem to have the highest likelihood of landfall given overnight trends.

[Floydbuster]

Wow I am surprised how far east the 5am track shifted. Landfall 12 hrs ago was forecast near Pascagoula, Mississippi, now all the way to Gulf Shores, Alabama and from the sounds of the NHC discussion, they are likely thinking even further east.

[NorthHillsWx]

Per Levi’s video yesterday this storm has trended to the exact thread the needle scenario he described to maximize intensity in this environment 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

Wow I am surprised how far east the 5am track shifted. Landfall 12 hrs ago was forecast near Pascagoula, Mississippi, now all the way to Gulf Shores, Alabama and from the sounds of the NHC discussion, they are likely thinking even further east.

Deep mind baby. 

[Windspeed]

Looks like we're going to have quite a battle of timing and walking thin ice with that shear axis. Might be a back and forth between 6 hr runs on the TC model suites today until they get a better feel for track motion, and if/when the mid-level shear begins encroaching. For example, the 18z HAFS suites kept intensity in check, preventing a major. The 00z suites kept the core on the edge and bombed Isaias into a strong major. The recent 06z runs are back to allowing encroachment in the mid-levels again, though it may still be reaching Category 3 / 960s prior to weakening. We'll have to see if the 12z suite swing back to flirting with the 940s and a more significant major.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Wow I am surprised how far east the 5am track shifted. Landfall 12 hrs ago was forecast near Pascagoula, Mississippi, now all the way to Gulf Shores, Alabama and from the sounds of the NHC discussion, they are likely thinking even further east.

I was thinking last night that the correction vector is usually east with a poleward moving tropical cyclones and an approaching front.

[NorthHillsWx]

Regardless what happens on approach this thing is going to go boom today. That’s a heck of a satellite presentation this morning 

[40/70 Benchmark]

What is the best link for the deep mind ensemble suite?

Ugh...I didn't want to, as I'm about to jump into winter outlook mode, but the tropics call.

Man, I'm sick-

[NorthHillsWx]

Small cyclone, nuclear grade water temps, BOC, divergent flow. This is going to explode today. Think even the aggressive models are undershooting intensity. Do not think this landfalls near peak intensity but next 24 hours I expect this to become a high end cane I’ve seen this look before in the gulf…