October 2026 Medium/Long Range

[Paleocene]

Sunday looking like diddly squat in terms of moisture. Potentially more tonight/tomorrow am? But looks hit and miss.

[Interstate]

26 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Sunday looking like diddly squat in terms of moisture. Potentially more tonight/tomorrow am? But looks hit and miss.

Push that front south... I want to play some baseball

[Ji]

GFS got very wet tonight and early tomorrow morning again

[Benjamn3]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

GFS got very wet tonight and early tomorrow morning again

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO for weekend.

[LP08]

AI euro has been pretty much just noise shifts since about 120 hours out for Sunday.  It did great with the nor’easter too.  I’ll ride with that.

[mitchnick]

Don't know if anyone noticed, but many of the MR models are showing a big hit of BN over the Conus east of the Mississippi at the end of their runs for the past few days. 18z EuroAi and Gfs are pretty impressive with 12z support on the Gefs and Geps.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026100218&fh=360

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026100218&fh=384

Edit: Euro weeklies are on board too as the first 3 weeks (surprisingly) are BN in much of the east.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202610020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202610120000

[Interstate]

14 hours ago, LP08 said:

AI euro has been pretty much just noise shifts since about 120 hours out for Sunday.  It did great with the nor’easter too.  I’ll ride with that.

I think the NAM did the best with the track of the nor’easter. I believe it was the first to hook it back to the coast. 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I think the NAM did the best with the track of the nor’easter. I believe it was the first to hook it back to the coast. 

Speaking of the Nam, I  just saw in the NE forum the NWS has extended its life until 11/3.

[TSSN+]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Speaking of the Nam, I  just saw in the NE forum the NWS has extended its life until 11/3.

It’ll probably survive the winter lol

[Eskimo Joe]

7 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Speaking of the Nam, I  just saw in the NE forum the NWS has extended its life until 11/3.

Last hour stay of execution from the govenor.

[Benjamn3]

Maybe they tried to execute the NAM in Tennessee. 

[Eskimo Joe]

I'm fine with no big cold in before Thanksgiving. Save it for winter. 

[aldie 22]

80 on Friday?

[frd]

More warmth as we near next weekend. 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

41 minutes ago, frd said:

More warmth as we near next weekend. 

 

 

 

 

But a beautiful +NAO. lol 

[frd]

Coastal again possibly 

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

4 hours ago, frd said:

Coastal again possibly 

 

Congrats to the usual areas.

[WxUSAF]

Way out there but euro ai has had a number of runs recently that spin up a big storm in the D11-13 range and brings in cold air behind it. Probably would be first freeze chance for IAD and NW burbs if something like that happens. 

[Paleocene]

06z euro brings significant rain to the region (more to come) starting sunday afternoon into Monday -- from that tropical disturbance in the gulf. Euro AI is similar. GFS and CMC are less organized.

[Eskimo Joe]

36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Way out there but euro ai has had a number of runs recently that spin up a big storm in the D11-13 range and brings in cold air behind it. Probably would be first freeze chance for IAD and NW burbs if something like that happens. 

The Euro AI and AI ENS, for better or worse, seem to be deadly in the D5-D8 range lately. I would mark this D11-D13 potential pattern reshuffle as an initial benchmark for whether patterns get can kicked or come in as advertised.