October 2026 general discussion

[kdxken]

29.3°, not one of the coldest but still chilly.

[Damage In Tolland]

ORH and we grow on 

[Baroclinic Zone]

28F.  Heavy frost abounds. Oaks now crying for mama.

[WinterWolf]

33 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

28F.  Heavy frost abounds. Oaks now crying for mama.

Yup…a frosty autumn for the vast majority of us.  At some point DIT will get to participate. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Finally hit freezing for first time. 31.8°

[dryslot]

21.6F was the low, 21.7F currently, Cold morning outside this morning.

[kdxken]

Pretty morning. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

37.4 for the low and FTW

[ineedsnow]

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup…a frosty autumn for the vast majority of us.  At some point DIT will get to participate. 

His spot really amazes me.. I've had frost just about every morning.. not sure why his spot is always warmer. 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

28F.  Heavy frost abounds. Oaks now crying for mama.

same here. oaks are starting to shed the leaves, had very few on the ground until Monday, now the lawn is covered with them.

[Brewbeer]

low of 28, some frost 

[CoastalWx]

46 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

His spot really amazes me.. I've had frost just about every morning.. not sure why his spot is always warmer. 

Because it’s fakiational cooking. Look at ORH.

[Prismshine Productions]

Also, what will never happen right there.

I know, still fun to look at however

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[vortex95]

6 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

How to make all of Eastern Mass be pissed off:

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

Be more specific. how to piss off @CoastalWx!

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

His spot really amazes me.. I've had frost just about every morning.. not sure why his spot is always warmer. 

Hilltops don’t do fake cold which is what this entire last few weeks has been. You know when it warms 30-45 degrees during the day it’s fake . We get cold on CAA. Cooler daytime highs as well in this fake stuff . You must be like Hunch is, in an elevated valley between hills 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hilltops don’t do fake cold which is what this entire last few weeks has been. You know when it warms 30-45 degrees during the day it’s fake . We get cold on CAA. Cooler daytime highs as well in this fake stuff 

At least we have endless Indian Summer. Low 70s Friday. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hilltops don’t do fake cold which is what this entire last few weeks has been. You know when it warms 30-45 degrees during the day it’s fake . We get cold on CAA. Cooler daytime highs as well in this fake stuff 

I’m not going to get angry….but there’s nothing fake about it.  Is it radiational? Absolutely.   But not fake.  
 

When it snows only at elevation, is it fake snow?  I think we know the answer to that.  So when I see fake cold….gonna push back every time.  Such a stupid term…you guys should be ashamed of yourselves.  
 

Trees, plants, animals and people don’t know the sensible difference if it’s 29 at the surface, and 36 at 1000ft. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least we have endless Indian Summer. Low 70s Friday. 

Looks humid end of next week 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m not going to get angry….but there’s nothing fake about it.  Is it radiational? Absolutely.   But not fake.  
 

When it snows only at elevation, is it fake snow?  I think we know the answer to that.  So when I see fake cold….gonna push back every time.  Such a stupid term…you guys should be ashamed of yourselves.  
 

Trees, plants, animals and people don’t know the sensible difference if it’s 29 at the surface, and 36 at 1000ft. 

What you just described in the last paragraph is exactly the definition of a fake airmass. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What you just described in the last paragraph is exactly the definition of a fake airmass. 

Not in the least.  Again…if it snows at your house at 1000ft, but rains everywhere else…is it fake?  
 

So you’re so wrong on this, it isn’t even funny.  I can’t wait for that to happen…FAKE SNOW! 

[vortex95]

This is one of the worst interviews I have ever seen.  All I can say, the two ppl are both TOOLS in the own way.

The Fox person is classic drama-hound w/ a forced urgent tone and keeps poking the person interview for certainties in the forecast ("meteorologists and climatologists aren't are quite sure what to make of it!" -- ???, just made up nonsense to set the drama tone).

The person interviewed (Cohen) talks in vague and waffle terms, stating "anything is possible" and just goes back in forth w/ content that does not say anything that is of real practical value. It's all over the place, To the avg person, they get nothing out of this. Just hear stuff that's over their heads b/c of the meteorology complexity and nothing concrete, just a lot of "could happens" and "what ifs."

Useless segment. Merely content to fill air time and of course its wx, so have to push that no matter what. The monetization of wx is out of control and it ruining the science.
 

This obsession w/ advanced meteorology for public consumption is ridiculous. Let's sound techy to impress and feign like it is important. The avg person does not care, they just want the forecast and concise, reasonable statements, not all the drama, hedging and vagueness!

Also, the polar vortex is pushed as some scary phenomena.  It is *normal* feature of the polar regions, and yes, it does modulate cold air outbreaks into the CONUS and elsewhere in the world, but they just can't leave it at that.  Just b/c the media says this meteorological term over and over and talks about it w/ all the drama, does *not* physically make it any more or less than it is! Once again, they turn the ordinary into the extraordinary merely for content and hype.  Deplorable.
 

Don't get me wrong, such a discussion like this ok, but it is made for meteorology circles b/c it is complex subject. Not being haughty or a snob, just I understand the audience here.  Unlike ppl on this group, the vast majority don't give a hoot about such complex wx things.  And for those who are interested, I am going to call out such an interview segment for it saying a lot w/o anything much of anything.
 

 

[dendrite]

Min 25.1°

Airport mins

[vortex95]

Also, regarding my previous post, when El Nino is this strong, mild air *rules* across most of the Lower 48 for most of the winter.  The polar vortex is secondary. All other very strong El Ninos have had very mild conditions for the winter in the Lower 48.  The only cold air shots, and they are not too intense and are brief, are in the Northeast.  Why not just say that b/c you hare wx history and analogs to support your fcst.  That is the most logical course and has a virtually 100% success rate given past event. Any more is just pure speculation and content to just draw out talk about the wx b/c it gets the ratings.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Also, regarding my previous post, when El Nino is this strong, mild air *rules* across most of the Lower 48 for most of the winter.  The polar vortex is secondary. All other very strong El Ninos have had very mild conditions for the winter in the Lower 48.  The only cold air shots, and they are not too intense and are brief, are in the Northeast.  Why not just say that b/c you hare wx history and analogs to support your fcst.  That is the most logical course and has a virtually 100% success rate given past event. Any more is just pure speculation and content to just draw out talk about the wx b/c it gets the ratings.

If we do see a cold shot from this disruption, it’s likely to be brief. I mentioned that in the winter thread here.  But that’s no different than other strong Ninos. 97-98 had a November winter event.

[Brewbeer]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not in the least.  Again…if it snows at your house at 1000ft, but rains everywhere else…is it fake?  
 

So you’re so wrong on this, it isn’t even funny.  I can’t wait for that to happen…FAKE SNOW! 

he's just salty 'cause the foliage this year has been great almost everywhere, except for the dullness for The Oaks at Tolland

I'd be salty too if the foliage around me was meh and everyone else was enjoying a  great season

[vortex95]

Here are the CPC temp forecasts for winters 2013-14 to 2024-25 (left) and on the right as to what actually happened. This is not targeting CPC here, just showing how long-range forecasts are generally not good.

There is a distinct warm bias for the winter forecasts in this particular case set.
 

[vortex95]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If we do see a cold shot from this disruption, it’s likely to be brief. I mentioned that in the winter thread here.  But that’s no different than other strong Ninos. 97-98 had a November winter event.

One period in one month does not make a winter.  You'll see ppl just focus on those select periods they got right, when what matters is the overall avg for the entire winter!

 

"97-98 had a November winter event."

Ok....many Novs do, your point?

Dec 23, 1997 there was a surprise 1-2 footer in SNE.  A winter event.   Did that change anything in the mean for temp in the CONUS overall that winter?  No.  I had 42,6" that winter in Woburn.  That's 15" below avg.  I did have 6.4" in Nov which is above avg.  But again, slicing and ice down short periods is cherry-picking.

For Woburn,for the 4 very strong El Nino prior, one was close to avg snowfall (1982-83), and the other three below.  That does not make a "big" winter in the @CoastalWx context!