October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah he forgot to subtract out the 2” from the bottom of the log.

Or maybe there’s some emerald ash borer displacing some of the water. 

Maybe he was measuring a mud puddle in the wood pit with the broken chain? Using each link to count as an inch 

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe he was measuring a mud puddle in the wood pit with the broken chain? Using each link to count as an inch 

 

[dendrite]

I think that’s ^^^ Ken’s new theme song

 

Like Lips & Hips for Ginxy

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We get a lot of these with snow. Where it snows for days and days 

Huh?  Some serious Beer tonight. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Huh?  Some serious Beer tonight. 

How many have you had?

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How many have you had?

The wolf is howlin

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dendrite said:

The wolf is howlin

 

 

[kdxken]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t see anyone in ORH county near 7”. Interesting 

Hey numbnuts, the woodyard is not in ORH county it's in South Middlesex.

[kdxken]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah he forgot to subtract out the 2” from the bottom of the log.

Or maybe there’s some emerald ash borer displacing some of the water. 

Nope.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Hey numbnuts, the woodyard is not in ORH county it's in South Middlesex.

Geography is just one of the subjects Ditty didn’t excel at.

[Damage In Tolland]

lol what kind of a chart is that? Holy shit that’s embarrassing. Cannot stop laughing . Do yourself a favor and buy a weather station instead of trying to find something online 6.98 MTD but 7.02 event . 

[kdxken]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

lol what kind of a chart is that? Holy shit that’s embarrassing. Cannot stop laughing . Do yourself a favor and buy a weather station instead of trying to find something online 6.98 MTD but 7.02 event . 

Can you not read? Both are month to date. Let's see your 60 MPH gusts on your weather station that I should buy. Lolz.. idiot 

[bristolri_wx]

Stealing from the weather station up the street from me:

FR: 0.18
SA: 2.04
SU: 2.30
MO: 0.71
T: 5.23

[Damage In Tolland]

You don’t have a wx station . No one in your area had anywhere near 7”. Just making stuff up . Pretty sad in all seriousness 

[kdxken]

49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe he was measuring a mud puddle in the wood pit with the broken chain? Using each link to count as an inch 

"We had vandalism. Vandalism—all you know, we have a—hundred—and we have a, I think, 290, 300-foot slit right through it. Probably a box cutter or a knife of some kind."

"We had a 40, maybe 50, I'd say 60 mph wind. It's ripping!"

[Damage In Tolland]

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Proved my point thank you.

[Brewbeer]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You don’t have a wx station . No one in your area had anywhere near 7”. Just making stuff up . Pretty sad in all seriousness 

dude, you have a weather station and still make stuff up

pretty sad in all "seriousness"

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

off to Hampton beach to see high tide come in.. I know there wont be much flooding but maybe walk the beach after and find something neat.. 

Had a weenie friend go to Hampton Beach today.  Sand drifts along the boardwalk were NUTZ!  Has @CoastalWx ever seen such before in GHG????
 

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

For an anomalous storm (relative to the time of year) and some of the challenges among forecast guidance, this was an extremely well forecast storm and communicated quite well. 

"communicated quite well," yah, to the point that ppl were ticked that so many *indoor* events were cancelled and ppl treated it like a snowstorm raid the grocery store! 

From a fcst model perspective, they nailed it, as you said.  It indeed did end up being the biggest Sep nor'easter on record for the region, not only for rain/wind, but also for duration as well.  Sometimes I find this overlooked, which is should not be.  Our ability to fcst high-end, outlier wx events has become excellent in the last 10-15 years and that has translated to a lot of $$ and lives saved.  Contrary to popular belief, the wx is not becoming less forecastable or "unrecognizable" w/ warmer mean temps.  I have to state this at times in discussions -- the laws of physics and thermodynamics do not change b/c temps on avg change (up or down).  Water still freezes at 0 C, latent heat of fusion/vaporization/sublimation remains the same, the sun angle at any given latitude is still the same every year on any given date, etc.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

.71" rainfall on the day in Methuen, 1.06" Sunday, .58" Saturday, .03" Friday for a 4-day event total of 2.38"

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Despite being such a "warm" storm, it still managed to get that classic SE quad cool/cold air instability CU over the ocean we see so often in the weenie classics!  When I first swt a VIS image of the Bliz of 78 as a kid, that cold air CU always stuck in my mind!

One of more crazy cold air CU wraps was the Bliz of 97. @CoastalWx PT!



 

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

That is true for some areas but the storm was a bust in the Merrimack Valley area.

Can you image if this was snow w/ those kind of narrow precip maxes/mins?  You never would hear the end of it!  Meanwhile, @CoastalWx would have likely *actually* said, "this is TOO MUCH in Weymouth!  I can't get out of my house!!!""

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

There are always going to be areas which either meet forecast expectations, receive greater storm impact than forecast, or end up with lesser impact than forecast. From a forecasting perspective there are many situations where a forecaster can have an idea of where greater impacts/lesser impacts are more likely, however, it becomes a great challenge presenting that and conveying that to the general public. There are also situations where this is highly dependent on small-scale processes related to exact storm evolution. 

Overall, things worked out exactly as forecast.

What was atypical is that banded nature of the precip.  A classic coastal just steady moves NE and intensifies, and the precip area comes in as a wall w/ a solid WAA blitz, and *then* the precip becomes more banded and showery as the upper trough and comma head moves in.

But given this was an outlier event in terms of setup/pattern, none of what happened should have been a surprise.  In the end, it delivered big many areas.

[powderfreak]

25 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Sometimes I find this overlooked, which is should not be.  Our ability to fcst high-end, outlier wx events has become excellent in the last 10-15 years and that has translated to a lot of $$ and lives saved. 

Playing devils advocate, wouldn’t the current environment of hyping up weather events lead to increased “hits” in forecasting high-end wx events?

It is incredibly hard for an event to “sneak up” on society these days.  

[NeonPeon]

Good lord. Its finally leaving us. I hated this event. On the ground, there was nothing interesting. Just 4 days of rain. Another ruined weekend. And what's the best I can say about it? Looked nifty on satellite? Was well forecast?

Even these rain totals aren't that remarkable for this long a duration event.

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..but the hype was off the charts...none of the hypemasters on TV offered up an explanation this morning....

That's major problem these days.  No accountability.  Whether it be legacy media or social media, it always about what's *going to* happen w/ endless speculation, conjecture, and hedging that is over-the-top.  Fcst does not work out as planned or not at all?, memory hole it and just move on to the next event or distract w/ other content.  It is business model that is more self-serving than doing a service.

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't recall any local TV stations hyping anything up. Like i said, forecast was very well communicated. Multiple days (several really) of communication allowed people to prepare, particularly emergency management and utility companies. Because of the staging and extra resources Eversouce dedicated ahead of time power outages were resolved in a timely manner and this helped keep numbers at a reasonable level. There was also some significant coastal flooding as advertised and you'd have to think those along the coast prepared and anticipated on this and impact the best they could. I don't recall any outlets out there stating any storm impacts being more extreme that what occurred. 

When you say "local TV stations" I assume you just mean those that you get in your viewing areas in CT.? Not every TV market is the same, some are more out of control w/ hype than other and intense (you should see the OKC market!).  Not all markets have the same caliber OCMs as to overall met knowledge or the OCM able to do things in a reasonable/balanced way for wx presentation as the news director is breathing down their necks micromanaging and saying hype to the max.  Since wx is the #1 reason why ppl watch local news, I don't have to say how intense and competitive it is these days at many TV stations.

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Just because the lead story was on the storm does not mean it was hyped, majority of the news audience tunes in for weather. Weather is a significant portion of news ratings. Cancelling events ultimately is the decision of the person or people responsible for that decision. Even I year ago I laughed at how schools cancel so easily now, I made a post slamming schools because of closing for a potential wind event last year. However, a post from FXWX swayed my mind a bit and the various research papers I've read in this Weather and Society course I am currently taking has altered my perspective. There is an increasing trend for people to be on the safe side and one of the reasons for these decisions is people comparing risk versus "reward". Also, there is a greater trust in weather forecasts these days which factors in as well. 

@weatherwiz posts are solid and make excellent points.  Good debate/discussion material!

"just because the lead story was on the storm does not mean it was hyped,"

Wx is almost always the lead story.  Even when nothing is going on, the newscast will throw to the wx right away and talk about how sunny it was today, and never not let an excuse happen for them to say "WE'RE TRACKING!" even if it is clouds or a slight change in temp!

This is fluff and obvious to the viewer.  That time could be used to report on much more important news out there (not like there isn't enough out there).


"Cancelling events ultimately is the decision of the person or people responsible for that decision."

Correct, but there is cause and effect here.  When you hype things to the max, turning the ordinary into the extraordinary, that has real psychological impacts and skews perception big time.  Even if you know better and are well-versed in the basics as to wx, say as an EM, this still will sway your objectivity subconsciously, and result in decisions that are not always the best.  Also, even if you know better and do not let this influence you, external pressures socially/politically/economically amped up by the hype are a factor and make you do things you otherwise would not do.  

Do not underestimate the bandwagon logical fallacy.  That is, if "everyone" says this or that is true or is going to happen, then it *must* be true or going to happen!  This is known social science and human psychology.

Also, as mets and wx enthusiasts, we can't let our wx knowledge bias us here.  Yes, WE know the deal and how to interpret/read between the lines when a wx event is fcst, scaling and quantifying things correctly, but the vast majority out there have no idea, and given the info overload these days and not knowing what is what from it, you can't really blame the public for being skeptical/distrustful, which leads me to this:

"Also, there is a greater trust in weather forecasts these days which factors in as well. "

I don't know about that.  In some sectors/fields, yes, but from a public POV?

I'll never forget what I heard in a grocery line some years ago.  A storm was coming, and one person talking to another said, "last time they said it was not going to hit, and it did, so maybe this time it won't b/c they say it will!"  What kind of logic is that!?   But you see the notions and perceptions out there!

[78Blizzard]

Final total event of 7.93".