Fall 2026 Med/Long range discussion

[sbnwx85]

That's a lot moisture

[BeastFromTheEast]

Looking forward to some Polo Remnant rains next week! What a journey it’ll take out of the Pacific! 

[BeastFromTheEast]

Going to feel soupy and humid again for a day or two too! 
 

Should see at least upper 60s dew points with the tropical-ish airmass

[A-L-E-K]

p big ridge signal in fantasy range on the eps

[A-L-E-K]

extended still looking mild/nino-ish

[IWXwx]

October zzzzzzzzzzz's

[SchaumburgStormer]

It’s boring as shit, but pretty stoked with the windows open weather.

[A-L-E-K]

whole region sleeping good

EPS casting mild zzzzs across much of the continent in the extended

[SchaumburgStormer]

14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

whole region sleeping good

EPS casting mild zzzzs across much of the continent in the extended

As I have gotten older, my inner normie kicks through and the “sweatshirt to leave the house morning, shorts coming back” has become top tier. 

Love this weather for football, apple orchards, and other fall shit. Plus I can send the kids back outside to play after school. 

[cyclone77]

Whatever forms in the gulf may impact the eastern half of the sub.  Zzzzz over the western sub though.

[Chambana]

Top tier stuff, night time temps have been delicious. Definitely nice to get a break on the power bill.

[sbnwx85]

6 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Whatever forms in the gulf may impact the eastern half of the sub.  Zzzzz over the western sub though.

Firmly in the cone of uncertainty over here.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Zzzzz over the western sub though.

I’ll take my vitamin D while I can. Low stratus and 30s will be here soon enough. 

[A-L-E-K]

ready 2 plume

[Chicago Storm]

Halfway through October 2026 vs all strong/super El Nino winter Octobers.

[A-L-E-K]

Torching

[A-L-E-K]

 

[pen_artist]

Only got 10 or so weeks but perhaps we can still break the US tornados by state record 

[A-L-E-K]

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

outside brief post front cool shots, extended looks like endless mild weather

[Frog Town]

 

If I’m remembering correctly, we had a super El Niño during the winter of 2015–2016. That November brought an unusually cold outbreak, with highs in the teens around midmonth, before a more typical El Niño pattern took hold for the rest of winter.

With a recurving typhoon, Ural blocking, a weakening polar vortex, and other factors potentially lining up, I’m wondering whether we could see a similar November this year. Thoughts or rebuttals?

[A-L-E-K]

different planet and a much weaker/incomparable nino

ensembles mild into november

maybe one of us gets lucky at some point but we should all learn to embrace the pacific because it's coming

 

 

[BeastFromTheEast]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

different planet and a much weaker/incomparable nino

ensembles mild into november

maybe one of us gets lucky at some point but we should all learn to embrace the pacific because it's coming

 

 

I think we have a shot of making it through this winter without a subzero temp. Happens in about ~10% of winters and this upcoming one has a realistic shot. 
 

Also sub 20” snowfall certainly in play as well. 

[A-L-E-K]

9 minutes ago, BeastFromTheEast said:

I think we have a shot of making it through this winter without a subzero temp. Happens in about ~10% of winters and this upcoming one has a realistic shot. 
 

Also sub 20” snowfall certainly in play as well. 

let's get greedy and go for no single digits

[michsnowfreak]

19 minutes ago, BeastFromTheEast said:

I think we have a shot of making it through this winter without a subzero temp. Happens in about ~10% of winters and this upcoming one has a realistic shot. 
 

Also sub 20” snowfall certainly in play as well. 

I mentioned in the enso thread on the main forum, but honestly, pretty much everyone in the north and east is expecting a subpar winter relative to their climo. So the expectations are set. However, there are a few trolls in that thread that say absolutely ridiculous things that are completely unrealistic wrt weather, and these things will be hilarious when people bump them in the spring. People need to kinda chill on these insane assumptions because its such a strong Nino, especially with some things not behaving as expected.

Do I expect a milder and less snowy than avg winter? Yes. But thats as far as ill go. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

I’m expecting a record mild winter imby using some farmers almanac type logic. The warmest winter on record in Minneapolis was set in 23/24 while my wife was pregnant with our second child. This winter she is pregnant with our third.  

[Brian D]

6 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

I’m expecting a record mild winter imby using some farmers almanac type logic. The warmest winter on record in Minneapolis was set in 23/24 while my wife was pregnant with our second child. This winter she is pregnant with our third.  

Congrats. May her pregnancy go well with a healthy kid in the end  

[michsnowfreak]

16 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

I’m expecting a record mild winter imby using some farmers almanac type logic. The warmest winter on record in Minneapolis was set in 23/24 while my wife was pregnant with our second child. This winter she is pregnant with our third.  

Hope your wrong on the weather, but congratulations!!!!

[Stebo]

23 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I mentioned in the enso thread on the main forum, but honestly, pretty much everyone in the north and east is expecting a subpar winter relative to their climo. So the expectations are set. However, there are a few trolls in that thread that say absolutely ridiculous things that are completely unrealistic wrt weather, and these things will be hilarious when people bump them in the spring. People need to kinda chill on these insane assumptions because its such a strong Nino, especially with some things not behaving as expected.

Do I expect a milder and less snowy than avg winter? Yes. But thats as far as ill go. 

3 of the 4 last super ninos were 20-25" here and that included the 2 closest analogs, 82-83 and 97-98. So yes I would lean much below normal snowfall and above normal temps. It is going to take luck to get above those values especially with a background state of losing snow in general over the recent years. We had favorable enso setups and it didnt help us.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

3 of the 4 last super ninos were 20-25" here and that included the 2 closest analogs, 82-83 and 97-98. So yes I would lean much below normal snowfall and above normal temps. It is going to take luck to get above those values especially with a background state of losing snow in general over the recent years. We had favorable enso setups and it didnt help us.

Strong/super Ninos:

1877–1878: 43.4"

1965-66: 15.4"

1972-73: 45.0"

1982–1983: 20.0"

1991–1992: 43.5"

1997–1998: 23.4"

2015–2016: 35.3"

2023-24: 23.5"

I expect below avg snow. I disagree about "background state of losing snow in recent years". Due to the snowy 2000s & 2010s, the current 1991-2020 yr avg snow is highest its ever been (45"). The longterm avg is 41". The dip in the 2020s is not at all unexpected. Look at the ebbs and flows since 1880. 

My comment was moreso aimed at those expecting no snow in northern locations. An absolute joke void of any meteorological reasoning. Last winter was a severe winter due to the cold/snowpack, with suppression being the problem why we didnt have above avg snow.

If im throwing out a number for 2026-27, im guessing 30"-ish. The biggest wild card will be a big storm. Should be some big nino storms. They often hit the east coast, but have also hit us (1878, 1992). 2015-2016 had multiple big storms just north of Detroit.