weatherwiz Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s see how tomorrow night and Thursday can fail Unfortunately not looking good. Tomorrow night is probably just some heavy rain with some embedded thunder. All the good elevated CAPE remains to our west. on Thursday it looks like the 850 cold front will push through before the sfc cold front. So while we actually get into the warm sector and destabilize behind tomorrow nights rain, the 850 front coming through during the morning kills off any hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Unfortunately not looking good. Tomorrow night is probably just some heavy rain with some embedded thunder. All the good elevated CAPE remains to our west. on Thursday it looks like the 850 cold front will push through before the sfc cold front. So while we actually get into the warm sector and destabilize behind tomorrow nights rain, the 850 front coming through during the morning kills off any hope. Just shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago We’re on to coastal season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just shocking We don't get multiday severe potential very often but when we do, usually we'll get one day to work out. I mean southwestern CT certainly has some shot early this evening. There still may be some time to get Thursday to work but probably unlikely. But Thursday is quite complex...I may even be incorrectly evaluating and saying 850 front being the issue. Maybe we want to hope tomorrow night isn't as robust and we don't have to deal with thick overcast and precip to begin the day on Thursday. It's very possible this may be overstated too with the more robust precip going to our southwest where better instability is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The boredom locally this summer is nothing I've ever experienced. Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago At least the desert of AZ is getting pummeled with severe. Makes me feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The boredom locally this summer is nothing I've ever experienced. Holy crap. It’s sad when the weather highlight of the season is a day of smoke. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We’re on to coastal season We’ve had plenty of rain. Don’t need more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted 56 minutes ago Share Posted 56 minutes ago 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The boredom locally this summer is nothing I've ever experienced. Holy crap. Not even one "low cape / high shear" event! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 49 minutes ago Share Posted 49 minutes ago 1 minute ago, FXWX said: Not even one "low cape / high shear" event! At least your area had July 4th. There has been nothing river east and even over most of NNE. People are asking why the pattern has been more S and W of New England. I'll include SW CT. If I go by memory, it seems like we've had a lot of W-NW flow and this low to mid level theta-e boundary over the OH valley and at times pushing into the NYC area. So while we had some warm and humid days, the real juice has been more to the SW. Storms love higher theta-e and it can't push far to the northeast if the flow is NW-SE. We never really had a ridge flex into New England....it's been to our southwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 47 minutes ago Share Posted 47 minutes ago Even today, look at the models. Whether it's 850 Td or theta-e...just gets cut off near NYC. That is one thing I have noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted 28 minutes ago Share Posted 28 minutes ago 46 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We’re on to coastal season at least we should get some good coastals as we head into fall with El Niño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 24 minutes ago Share Posted 24 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: at least we should get some good coastals as we head into fall with El Niño Only if they can be screamers . With no cold air this winter benchmark Rainers are not wanted . Maybe it’s the season of damaging big screamers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 22 minutes ago Author Share Posted 22 minutes ago 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: At least your area had July 4th. There has been nothing river east and even over most of NNE. People are asking why the pattern has been more S and W of New England. I'll include SW CT. If I go by memory, it seems like we've had a lot of W-NW flow and this low to mid level theta-e boundary over the OH valley and at times pushing into the NYC area. So while we had some warm and humid days, the real juice has been more to the SW. Storms love higher theta-e and it can't push far to the northeast if the flow is NW-SE. We never really had a ridge flex into New England....it's been to our southwest. 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Even today, look at the models. Whether it's 850 Td or theta-e...just gets cut off near NYC. That is one thing I have noticed. Yup...precisely this. At least for this period, there were some hints the end of last week we could see a bit more flexing of the ridge into our region versus previous instances this summer but that did not happen. It actually looks to happen for Thursday's potential but we get screwed over other ways lol. Its really amazing how when you look at this from a climatological perspective, more often than not, this is exactly what happens and the cutoff is always pretty much the same exact geography. Pretty fascinating from a science perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted 3 minutes ago Share Posted 3 minutes ago On 8/31/2026 at 2:31 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: Over/under 0.5 rumbles of thunder heard this week Under holding strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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