Monday, August 31 - Thursday, September 3, 2026 Convective Episodes

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s see how tomorrow night and Thursday can fail 

Unfortunately not looking good. 

Tomorrow night is probably just some heavy rain with some embedded thunder. All the good elevated CAPE remains to our west.

on Thursday it looks like the 850 cold front will push through before the sfc cold front. So while we actually get into the warm sector and destabilize behind tomorrow nights rain, the 850 front coming through during the morning kills off any hope. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Unfortunately not looking good. 

Tomorrow night is probably just some heavy rain with some embedded thunder. All the good elevated CAPE remains to our west.

on Thursday it looks like the 850 cold front will push through before the sfc cold front. So while we actually get into the warm sector and destabilize behind tomorrow nights rain, the 850 front coming through during the morning kills off any hope. 

Just shocking 

[WxWatcher007]

We’re on to coastal season

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just shocking 

We don't get multiday severe potential very often but when we do, usually we'll get one day to work out. I mean southwestern CT certainly has some shot early this evening. There still may be some time to get Thursday to work but probably unlikely. But Thursday is quite complex...I may even be incorrectly evaluating and saying 850 front being the issue. 

Maybe we want to hope tomorrow night isn't as robust and we don't have to deal with thick overcast and precip to begin the day on Thursday. It's very possible this may be overstated too with the more robust precip going to our southwest where better instability is. 

[CoastalWx]

The boredom locally this summer is nothing I've ever experienced. Holy crap.

[CoastalWx]

At least the desert of AZ is getting pummeled with severe. Makes me feel better. 

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The boredom locally this summer is nothing I've ever experienced. Holy crap.

It’s sad when the weather highlight of the season is a day of smoke.

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We’re on to coastal season

We’ve had plenty of rain. Don’t need more 

[FXWX]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The boredom locally this summer is nothing I've ever experienced. Holy crap.

Not even one "low cape / high shear" event!

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Not even one "low cape / high shear" event!

At least your area had July 4th. There has been nothing river east and even over most of NNE.

 

People are asking why the pattern has been more S and W of New England. I'll include SW CT. If I go by memory, it seems like we've had a lot of W-NW flow and this low to mid level theta-e boundary over the OH valley and at times pushing into the NYC area. So while we had some warm and humid days, the real juice has been more to the SW. Storms love higher theta-e and it can't push far to the northeast if the flow is NW-SE. We never really had a ridge flex into New England....it's been to our southwest. 

[CoastalWx]

Even today, look at the models. Whether it's 850 Td or theta-e...just gets cut off near NYC. That is one thing I have noticed.

[ma blizzard]

46 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We’re on to coastal season

at least we should get some good coastals as we head into fall with El Niño 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

at least we should get some good coastals as we head into fall with El Niño 

Only if they can be screamers . With no cold air this winter benchmark Rainers are not wanted . Maybe it’s the season of damaging big screamers