September 2026

[bluewave]

Record number of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings for PA this year.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=44&plot=bar&opt=state&station=DMX&state=PA&fema=7&limit=no&c=svrtor&phenomena=TO&significance=W&syear=1986&eyear=2026&s=jan1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

87 / 67 very nice out.  

[SACRUS]

[winterwarlock]

Im not trusting any forecast for sunday. Expecting clouds and cool at beaches

[winterwarlock]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

87 / 67 very nice out.  

My heat index is 90

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Im not trusting any forecast for sunday. Expecting clouds and cool at beaches

Agree Sunday may see clouds and showers east

[Brian5671]

dewpoints really dropping now down to low to mid 60's with north winds

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

dewpoints starting to drop but will be tomorrow before it's really drier.

Looks like 4 days in a row with dewpoints well down into the 50s at least. Great stretch coming up. 

[jm1220]

39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

dewpoints really dropping now down to low to mid 60's with north winds

Halle-freakin-lujah. 

[Stormlover74]

Yes we know

[Michael05192016]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yes we know

NJ, Oklahoma'ed, while Long Island, Long Island'ed

[Brian5671]

Not as much severe here-but lots of flooding events.   7/4 was our big severe day in CT

[bluewave]

Looks like the OKX forecast zones moved up to 8th place so far for annual flash flood warnings while the PHI zones are in 1st place.
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=44&plot=bar&opt=wfo&station=OKX&state=CT&fema=7&limit=no&c=single&phenomena=FF&significance=W&syear=1986&eyear=2026&s=jan1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Only for a few more hours

It was absolutely awesome at 9 am when I went outside perfect weather for a walk. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

It feels great outside to me.  Nice breeze and since it is just 80, the dews don't feel bad at all.  Looking forward to logging off work in an hour to enjoy the long weekend.  

Yep today was great right from 9 am onwards.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Record number of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings for PA this year.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=44&plot=bar&opt=state&station=DMX&state=PA&fema=7&limit=no&c=svrtor&phenomena=TO&significance=W&syear=1986&eyear=2026&s=jan1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

 

 

 

The most annoying thing is the FCC over regulation requiring local TV stations to keep broadcasting weather while a tornado warning is ongoing. There was one here that lasted for 3 hours and the TV mets ran out of things to say.

This FCC over regulation needs to come to an end. Instead they should regulate the amount of commercial time allowed to TV stations to 5 minutes per 30 minute period.

I understand a 5 minute update and a crawling scroll at the bottom of the screen with a radar inset, But 3 hours for a tornado warning that probably didn't even contain a real tornado? HELL NO

How many of these tornado warnings contain real tornados? Not doppler funnel clouds? I propose we limit tornado warnings to only real verified on the ground tornados and doppler funnel clouds can be given tornado advisories or funnel cloud warnings or whatever. 

And if you think this is a trivial issue, an Atlanta TV station was given death threats for interrupting the Masters because of tornados that day. 5 minutes of coverage every hour is enough and a scrolling crawl at the bottom of the screen with a radar inset.  Or maybe allow each state to handle it separately tornados are much more of a danger in other parts of the country.

 

[donsutherland1]

A few areas could see an evening shower. Most of the region will remain dry. Cooler air will move in overnight.

A cooler air mass will cover the region for the Labor Day weekend. In its wake, temperatures will generally peak in the middle and upper 70s. Readings in New York City could fall into the lower 60s with widespread 50s outside the City. The cool weather will likely continue through at least the middle of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.50°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -7.78 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.293 today. 

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

In terms of 95°+ days it was a pretty high ranking for many locations. Areas away from the sea breeze made it to 35 days of 90° and over 40 days at the Philly stations.

But this would have been a cooler summer in the past during developing super El Niños.

Most summers following super El Niños had more heat than the one while it was still developing like this year. So we would expect more heat than this one during the next few summers. 

Since the ridge axis this summer was out near 100W, the strongest heat this summer in our region was from Philly to ACY. We have been getting the stalled fronts with too much convection here to have the kind of heat areas just to our south did. 

The start of September looks like more of the same with the main heat dome staying to our west. Maybe we can get a day or two next week near 90° but it could stay closer to Philly.  

Have a very happy birthday coming up. You pick the perfect spot at a higher elevation which is cooler than areas just to your south and east.

Summer 2026 heat dome centered near 100W

 

Next 10 days look like more of the same

Past developing super El Niño summers have been much cooler with more troughs than ridges 

 

 

 

 

The problem with those 95 degree plus highs is they were isolated to the first half of summer. Summer ended after July 15th. I'm trying to find a winter equivalent for this- not even 2010-11 compares because it lasted until the end of January (the winter equivalent of July.) This was more like a winter that ended after January 15th.

As far as el nino summers are concerned 1963, 1991 and 2002 were superior in longevity. This was more like 1994. The winter will also probably be more like 1994-95 than the winters that followed those longer summers. 

Thanks for the Happy Birthday Chris I had two deer visitors today who came right to my kitchen windows and I took pictures which I want to share but I have a 178 kb limit for sharing images how can I lift that limit?

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In advance, have a very happy birthday.

Thanks Don I'll be 53!

[SACRUS]

88.8 today nice one.

[lee59]

https://www.weather.gov/okx/climatecard

Above summer stats locally.

[uofmiami]

11 minutes ago, lee59 said:

https://www.weather.gov/okx/climatecard

Above summer stats locally.

[SACRUS]

Today's Highs:

PHL: 89
EWR: 88
New Brnswck: 88
ACY: 88
BLM: 88
JFK: 86 * no intra hour highs
LGA: 86
TTN: 86
TEB: 85
NYC: 84
ISP: 84

[MANDA]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep today was great right from 9 am onwards.

Took a little longer, until early afternoon for the drier air to reach my part of NJ but the mid and late afternoon turned out really pleasant with lots of sun, a breeze, lowering dews and temperatures right around 80.

[SACRUS]

75 / 61 mostly sunny.  Looking like a great day in this long weekend.  Upper 70s low 80s.  More onshore NE flow tomorrow could see more clouds and isolated showers in eastern areas  i am still not totally buying the mostly sunny and dry forecasts especially eastern.  Labor day looks like a copy of today upper 70s low 80s.  Overall near to slightly above normal week with the 10th being the warmest day of the next 7 mid  upper 80s or higher in the hot spots.  Looking overall dry this week outside of some showers later on thursday.  Beyond there overall near normal to above throuuh mid month.  Ridge looks to build back into the mid section we'll have to see the extent of the eastern and northern influences.

 

.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 95 (2023) 
NYC: 94 (1985) 
LGA: 93 (1985)
JFK: 94 (1961)


 

Lows:

EWR: 53 (2000)
NYC: 51 (1963)
LGA: 54 (2000)
JFK: 52 (1989)

Historical:

1925 - The temperature at Centerville, AL, soars to 112 degrees to establish a state record. Every reporting station in Alabama was 100 degrees or above that afternoon. (The Weather Channel)

1929: Early season snowfall occurred in the mountains of Wyoming and the Black Hills of South Dakota on September 5th and 6th. The highest snowfall amount was 16 inches in Fox Park, Wyoming.

1933 - A hurricane hit Brownsville, TX, killing forty persons and causing 12 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1933: A Category 3 hurricane made landfall on South Padre Island, Texas during the late evening hours on September 4th, or Labor Day. The storm caused 40 fatalities and nearly $17 million in damages. With the storm making landfall during a holiday weekend, fatalities could have been much higher. The following is from the report of the official in charge at Corpus Christi, Texas: "Probably never before in the history of Texas hurricanes have such widespread and early warnings been given as were received from Washington in advance of this one. The telegram of Saturday, September 2, warning all persons to avoid inaccessible places over the weekend probably saved thousands of lives."

1950 - Hurricane Easy produced the greatest 24 hour rainfall in U.S. weather records. The hurricane deluged Yankeetown, on the upper west coast of Florida, with 38.7 inches of rain. (David Ludlum)

1950: Hurricane Easy was an erratic and unpredictable hurricane that lingered over the Tampa Bay area for days, dropping torrential rains and causing damage especially in Cedar Key, Florida where the storm eventually made landfall. This hurricane dumped 38.7 inches of rain in 24 hours in Yankeetown, a record for the U.S. at the time, and caused $3.3 million in damage. Total rainfall amounts in Yankeetown was 45.20 inches.

1975 - Strong winds reduced visibilities to near zero in blowing dust resulting in a 22-car chain reaction accident on Interstate 10 near Toltec AZ. Two persons were killed, and 14 others were injured. (The Weather Channel)

1978: Tropical Depression Norman became the most recent tropical system to make landfall in California near Long Beach as an extra-tropical storm.

1987 - Thunderstorms over the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast States drenched Charleston, SC, with 5.50 inches of rain, and a total of 13.50 inches in two days, flooding homes, and leaving roads and bridges under water. (The National Weather Summary) A tropical storm which formed off the South Atlantic coast was responsible for torrential rains over coastal regions of South Carolina. Between the 30th of August and the 8th of September, Charleston SC received 18.44 inches of rain. The heavy rains caused extensive flooding around the city of Charleston, seriously damaged cotton crops in the eastern part of the state, and resulted in an unusually high number of mosquitos. (Storm Data)

1988 - Five days of heavy rain commenced in west central Florida. Up to 20 inches of rain in four days resulted in extensive urban flooding, and evacuation of 1000 homes. Flooding claimed four lives, and caused more than five million dollars proprty damage. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced six to ten inches of rain in south central Kansas between 6 AM and Noon. Serious flooding was reported around Wichita, with water four feet deep along some roads. A cold front crossing the Northern High Plains Region produced wind gusts to 63 mph at Sheridan WY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1996: Hurricane Fran made landfall near the tip of Cape Fear, North Carolina with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph on the evening of September 5th. Fran was responsible for 26 deaths and was at the time the most expensive natural disaster ever in North Carolina’s history.

2017: Hurricane Irma became a category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph. This made Irma one of strongest hurricane ever observed in the open Atlantic Ocean.  

[forkyfork]

16 hours ago, uofmiami said:

if a super nino can't give us a cool summer then nothing can

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How many of these tornado warnings contain real tornados? Not doppler funnel clouds?

PA is in currently 2nd place for the most tornadoes behind 1998.