September 2026

[bluewave]

Record number of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings for PA this year.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=44&plot=bar&opt=state&station=DMX&state=PA&fema=7&limit=no&c=svrtor&phenomena=TO&significance=W&syear=1986&eyear=2026&s=jan1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

87 / 67 very nice out.  

[SACRUS]

[winterwarlock]

Im not trusting any forecast for sunday. Expecting clouds and cool at beaches

[winterwarlock]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

87 / 67 very nice out.  

My heat index is 90

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Im not trusting any forecast for sunday. Expecting clouds and cool at beaches

Agree Sunday may see clouds and showers east

[Brian5671]

dewpoints really dropping now down to low to mid 60's with north winds

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

dewpoints starting to drop but will be tomorrow before it's really drier.

Looks like 4 days in a row with dewpoints well down into the 50s at least. Great stretch coming up. 

[jm1220]

39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

dewpoints really dropping now down to low to mid 60's with north winds

Halle-freakin-lujah. 

[Stormlover74]

Yes we know

[Michael05192016]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yes we know

NJ, Oklahoma'ed, while Long Island, Long Island'ed

[Brian5671]

Not as much severe here-but lots of flooding events.   7/4 was our big severe day in CT

[bluewave]

Looks like the OKX forecast zones moved up to 8th place so far for annual flash flood warnings while the PHI zones are in 1st place.
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=44&plot=bar&opt=wfo&station=OKX&state=CT&fema=7&limit=no&c=single&phenomena=FF&significance=W&syear=1986&eyear=2026&s=jan1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Only for a few more hours

It was absolutely awesome at 9 am when I went outside perfect weather for a walk. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

It feels great outside to me.  Nice breeze and since it is just 80, the dews don't feel bad at all.  Looking forward to logging off work in an hour to enjoy the long weekend.  

Yep today was great right from 9 am onwards.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Record number of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings for PA this year.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=44&plot=bar&opt=state&station=DMX&state=PA&fema=7&limit=no&c=svrtor&phenomena=TO&significance=W&syear=1986&eyear=2026&s=jan1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

 

 

 

The most annoying thing is the FCC over regulation requiring local TV stations to keep broadcasting weather while a tornado warning is ongoing. There was one here that lasted for 3 hours and the TV mets ran out of things to say.

This FCC over regulation needs to come to an end. Instead they should regulate the amount of commercial time allowed to TV stations to 5 minutes per 30 minute period.

I understand a 5 minute update and a crawling scroll at the bottom of the screen with a radar inset, But 3 hours for a tornado warning that probably didn't even contain a real tornado? HELL NO

How many of these tornado warnings contain real tornados? Not doppler funnel clouds? I propose we limit tornado warnings to only real verified on the ground tornados and doppler funnel clouds can be given tornado advisories or funnel cloud warnings or whatever. 

And if you think this is a trivial issue, an Atlanta TV station was given death threats for interrupting the Masters because of tornados that day. 5 minutes of coverage every hour is enough and a scrolling crawl at the bottom of the screen with a radar inset.  Or maybe allow each state to handle it separately tornados are much more of a danger in other parts of the country.

 

[donsutherland1]

A few areas could see an evening shower. Most of the region will remain dry. Cooler air will move in overnight.

A cooler air mass will cover the region for the Labor Day weekend. In its wake, temperatures will generally peak in the middle and upper 70s. Readings in New York City could fall into the lower 60s with widespread 50s outside the City. The cool weather will likely continue through at least the middle of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.50°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -7.78 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.293 today. 

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

In terms of 95°+ days it was a pretty high ranking for many locations. Areas away from the sea breeze made it to 35 days of 90° and over 40 days at the Philly stations.

But this would have been a cooler summer in the past during developing super El Niños.

Most summers following super El Niños had more heat than the one while it was still developing like this year. So we would expect more heat than this one during the next few summers. 

Since the ridge axis this summer was out near 100W, the strongest heat this summer in our region was from Philly to ACY. We have been getting the stalled fronts with too much convection here to have the kind of heat areas just to our south did. 

The start of September looks like more of the same with the main heat dome staying to our west. Maybe we can get a day or two next week near 90° but it could stay closer to Philly.  

Have a very happy birthday coming up. You pick the perfect spot at a higher elevation which is cooler than areas just to your south and east.

Summer 2026 heat dome centered near 100W

 

Next 10 days look like more of the same

Past developing super El Niño summers have been much cooler with more troughs than ridges 

 

 

 

 

The problem with those 95 degree plus highs is they were isolated to the first half of summer. Summer ended after July 15th. I'm trying to find a winter equivalent for this- not even 2010-11 compares because it lasted until the end of January (the winter equivalent of July.) This was more like a winter that ended after January 15th.

As far as el nino summers are concerned 1963, 1991 and 2002 were superior in longevity. This was more like 1994. The winter will also probably be more like 1994-95 than the winters that followed those longer summers. 

Thanks for the Happy Birthday Chris I had two deer visitors today who came right to my kitchen windows and I took pictures which I want to share but I have a 178 kb limit for sharing images how can I lift that limit?

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In advance, have a very happy birthday.

Thanks Don I'll be 53!