Severe Weather 8/10 - 8/13

[A-L-E-K]

Looking like a miss se imby, can't win em all and glad to spread the wealth

[hawkeye_wx]

The models' overnight forecast was awful.  There is no big MCS rolling through sw MN and far northern IA.  Instead, it's just an area of scattered meh convection farther south in Iowa.  

[A-L-E-K]

8 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

i'd be really cautious buying into the big talk regarding tomorrow, until morning that is.

there's a subtle wave in the sioux falls region this evening, which will translate east overnight. it appears that we should see t'storm development ahead of this feature, along the diffuse boundary across iowa and n illinois tonight. if this activity becomes too significant or lingers too deep into the morning, the big mega derecho hype will fail hard.

best in the game imo

[King James]

Quite a bust locally these last few days

[A-L-E-K]

Just now, King James said:

Quite a bust locally these last few days

north central indiana stole your goods

 

[sbnwx85]

Had a nice hail storm this morning. Up 1/2” IMBY but many areas reported 1”.

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, King James said:

Quite a bust locally these last few days

boundary near you, if IA complex gets its shit together, you're in a good spot imo

[cyclone77]

6 warnings in Iowa right now including a tornado warning, and still no watch out lol.

Swing and a miss north with this wave for this area.  Again.

[A-L-E-K]

17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

6 warnings in Iowa right now including a tornado warning, and still no watch out lol.

Swing and a miss north with this wave for this area.  Again.

escalatedquckly.gif

and you're in a good spot imo

[nvck]

Thought I'd be waking up to some high-end garden variety stuff, but a pretty potent bow approaching I-70 now. Watch just issued that mentions scattered 80mph gusts, didn't think we'd get that until the afternoon

[A-L-E-K]

comma head/waa wing taking shape now

[nwohweather]

27 minutes ago, nvck said:

Thought I'd be waking up to some high-end garden variety stuff, but a pretty potent bow approaching I-70 now. Watch just issued that mentions scattered 80mph gusts, didn't think we'd get that until the afternoon

Heck of a complex this morning. I go to my office at 7 am, I can’t remember ever having back to back days with a severe thunderstorm warning when leaving the house 

[Chicago Storm]

7 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

development has occurred. we'll see how it trends the remainder of the night and into the morning.

the bigger issue may end up being upstream, actually. most guidance is doing a fairly bad job regarding the evolution of things across the dakotas and vicinity. most guidance suggested that mcs formation would come from supercells tracking across the dakotas this evening and tonight, paired with additional development as well. not only should that scenario already have been unfolding by now, but it seems to be out the window based on evolution in reality over the past few hours.

if this big mcs is going to come to fruition, it'll have to be from an entirely different process than most guidance had shown.

big guidance fail.

instead we had a cluster develop south of sioux falls.

now we have an mcs, which has struggled to mature and organize as it has crossed iowa all morning.